Falmouth High School, ME '21
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.74 (fleet 1.21) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 4–6 (40%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2021 | 1 | 4–6 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (10 matches) the record is 4–6 against 5.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.2). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-05-23 | Levesque Trophy: ME State Team Race Championship | skipper | 0.77 | 0.07 | 4–6 | 5.2 | −0.69 | 0.5 | 87% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Levesque Trophy: ME State Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 3 | 0% | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Bulldog Classic | Skipper | B | 7 | 3.4 | 1.68 |
| Clipper Challenge | Skipper | B | 4 | 7.2 | 0.20 |
| 2019 Atlantic Coast Championship | Skipper | B | 5 | 18.0 | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Clipper Challenge | Skipper | A | 8 | 2.9 | 1.37 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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