Clipper Challenge

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 6 12 18
2 Yarmouth High School Yarmouth High School Clippers 1 20 16 36
3 Falmouth High School, ME Falmouth High School, ME Yachtsmen 2 19 19 38
4 Falmouth High School, ME Falmouth High School, ME Yachtsmen 1 13 29 42
5 Yarmouth High School Yarmouth High School Clippers 2 26 21 47
6 Cape Elizabeth High School Cape Elizabeth High School Capers 31 27 58
7 Greely High School - Maine Greely High School - Maine Rangers 33 30 63
8 Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Northern VT 25 40 65
9 Cheverus High School Cheverus High School Varsity 31 34 65
10 Marblehead High School Marblehead High School Fishwagons 48 25 73
11 Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Southern Maine 45 MRP 46 MRP 91 MRP
12 Brewster Academy Brewster Academy Bobcats 43 51 94
13 Dublin School Dublin School Dubliners 64 MRP 54 MRP 118 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 2 1 2 1 6 Eva Ermlich '22
Gregg O'Rourke '22
Falmouth High School, ME Falmouth High School, ME Yachtsmen 1 1 2 3 7 13 Sam Rooks '22
Alex Mazelsky '20
Falmouth High School, ME Falmouth High School, ME Yachtsmen 2 4 8 1 6 19 Emma Cole '21
Catherine Morrissette '20
Yarmouth High School Yarmouth High School Clippers 1 3 3 10 4 20 Wes Pratt '21
Nicolas Paulo '21
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Northern VT 7 10 5 3 25 Ryan Gladstone '19
Aidan Mansmann '24
Yarmouth High School Yarmouth High School Clippers 2 5 5 7 9 26 Eleanor Donahue '21
Tia Soultanakis '22
Cape Elizabeth High School Cape Elizabeth High School Capers 6 6 6 13 31 Eoin Murphy '22 [1-4]
Kyla Christie '21 [1-2]
Elliot Brown '22 [3-4]
Cheverus High School Cheverus High School Varsity 8 12 9 2 31 Lucien Lussier '22
Camden Hom '22
Greely High School - Maine Greely High School - Maine Rangers 10 4 8 11 33 William Getchell '21
Danika Hluska '23
Brewster Academy Brewster Academy Bobcats 11 11 13 8 43 Phin Byrne '22
Michael Bilodeau '22
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Southern Maine 9 7 4 5 45 MRP No Show
No Show
Marblehead High School Marblehead High School Fishwagons 13 13 12 10 48 Anna Nord '20
Anne Simcoe '23
Dublin School Dublin School Dubliners 12 9 11 12 64 MRP No Show
No Show
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 2 1 2 7 12 Kieran Elliott '21
Alice Thompson '21
Yarmouth High School Yarmouth High School Clippers 1 1 6 3 6 16 Daisy Brewer '23
Sabina Coroi '23
Falmouth High School, ME Falmouth High School, ME Yachtsmen 2 3 4 4 8 19 James Leavitt '22
Ben Wintersteen '23
Yarmouth High School Yarmouth High School Clippers 2 11 2 7 1 21 Simon Algara '22
Quin Omeara '23
Marblehead High School Marblehead High School Fishwagons 5 7 11 2 25 Kate Simcoe '22
Nick Thibodeau '22
Cape Elizabeth High School Cape Elizabeth High School Capers 4 3 10 10 27 Tess Straw '24 [1-4]
Violet Willyard '21 [1-2]
Migle Sarpiro '21 [3-4]
Falmouth High School, ME Falmouth High School, ME Yachtsmen 1 8 8 8 5 29 Chris Hoffman '21
Ava Brimicombe '21
Greely High School - Maine Greely High School - Maine Rangers 10 10 1 9 30 Ethan Adshead '21
Meg Woolverton '22
Cheverus High School Cheverus High School Varsity 7 9 6 12 34 Julia Harnom '22
Julian Lamontagne '21
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Northern VT 9 11 9 11 40 Samuel Yankee '20
Liam Cullina '19
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Southern Maine 6 5 12 3 46 MRP No Show
No Show
Brewster Academy Brewster Academy Bobcats 12 13 13 13 51 Gus Schoenbucher '21
Tim Rybecky '21
Dublin School Dublin School Dubliners 13 12 5 4 54 MRP No Show
No Show
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.100+0.10
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (9 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Brewster AcademyBrewster Academy Bobcats1133
Cape Elizabeth High SchoolCape Elizabeth High School Capers2244
Cheverus High SchoolCheverus High School Varsity3355
Dublin SchoolDublin School Dubliners4466
Falmouth High School, MEFalmouth High School, ME Yachtsmen 15577
Falmouth High School, MEFalmouth High School, ME Yachtsmen 26688
Greely High School - MaineGreely High School - Maine Rangers7799
Marblehead High SchoolMarblehead High School Fishwagons881010
Portland High SchoolPortland High School Bulldogs991111
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Northern VT11111313
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Southern Maine10101212
Yarmouth High SchoolYarmouth High School Clippers 1121211
Yarmouth High SchoolYarmouth High School Clippers 2131322

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Brewster AcademyBrewster Academy Bobcats2244
Cape Elizabeth High SchoolCape Elizabeth High School Capers3355
Cheverus High SchoolCheverus High School Varsity4466
Dublin SchoolDublin School Dubliners5577
Falmouth High School, MEFalmouth High School, ME Yachtsmen 16688
Falmouth High School, MEFalmouth High School, ME Yachtsmen 27799
Greely High School - MaineGreely High School - Maine Rangers881010
Marblehead High SchoolMarblehead High School Fishwagons991111
Portland High SchoolPortland High School Bulldogs10101212
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Northern VT121211
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Southern Maine11111313
Yarmouth High SchoolYarmouth High School Clippers 1131322
Yarmouth High SchoolYarmouth High School Clippers 21133

Conditions — 10/05/2019 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 47%  ·  Pressure 1029.0 hPa

Temperature

53°F
↑ 58°F   ↓ 42°F
Feels like 47°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.6 kn
avg  ·  max 6.7 kn
Gusts to 16.1 kn
From WNW (302°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity47% Pressure1029.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Yarmouth: an underdogs’ day (−0.04)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.12 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.08
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.05 ± 0.20)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Yarmouth by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at Yarmouth, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →