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Harpswell Sound Team Race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1 14–2
2 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 14–2
3 Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2 6–10
4 Boston University Boston University Terriers 4–12
5 University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 2–14

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 20,149 team race matches sailed before 2023-03-25, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 32 of 40 matches (80%) with a log-loss of 0.353 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.61 ± 0.31: an orderly event, more orderly than 97% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Bowdoin College
Polar Bears 1		17.86
school +0.06, home +0.40		Sam Bonauto / Jondall Norris 2.99
Kyra Phelan / Brooke Asherman
Lauren Russler / Luisa Louchheim		80%14–2 (88%)+1.2
2Tufts University
Jumbos		27.71
school +0.08		Connor Rosow / Magdelaina Putnam 2.33
Shea Smith / Lilah Parker 2.31
John Eastman / Naomi Pedersen 2.94		76%14–2 (88%)+1.8
3Bowdoin College
Polar Bears 2		55.81
school +0.06, home +0.40		Ethan Danielson / Isabelle Tsuchitori 2.15
Charlie Apolinsky / Katharine Kurtz
Benjamin Stevens / Aidan Michelow 1.96		31%6–10 (38%)+1.1
4Boston University
Terriers		35.85Gavin Monaghan / Sam Whipple 1.79
Nathan Selian / Yangyang Liu 2.03
Porter Bell / Carolyn Kravets 1.89		32%4–12 (25%)−1.0
5University of Vermont
Catamounts		45.85
school −0.06		Ryan Potter / Alex Forrest 2.07
Calvin Lamosse / Elizabeth Amelotte 2.02
Gavin Sanborn / Caitlin Derby 1.76		32%2–14 (12%)−3.0

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
2Tufts University Jumbos7.718.6214–212.2+0.911.121%
1Bowdoin College Polar Bears 17.868.5114–212.8+0.650.533%
3Bowdoin College Polar Bears 25.816.176–104.9+0.360.336%
4Boston University Terriers5.855.464–125.0−0.380.382%
5University of Vermont Catamounts5.854.532–145.0−1.322.699%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Connor RosowTufts University2.333.2414–212.2+0.911.121%
Shea SmithTufts University2.313.2214–212.2+0.911.121%
Lauren RusslerBowdoin College2.312.9614–212.8+0.650.533%
Charlie ApolinskyBowdoin College0.951.316–104.9+0.360.336%
Gavin MonaghanBoston University1.791.414–125.0−0.380.382%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1Bowdoin College Polar Bears 288%
12Tufts University JumbosBoston University Terriers87%
13Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1University of Vermont Catamounts86%
14Boston University TerriersBowdoin College Polar Bears 254%
15Tufts University JumbosBowdoin College Polar Bears 149%upset
16Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2University of Vermont Catamounts47%upset
17Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1Boston University Terriers88%
18Tufts University JumbosUniversity of Vermont Catamounts87%
19Boston University TerriersUniversity of Vermont Catamounts50%upset
110Tufts University JumbosBowdoin College Polar Bears 288%
211Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1University of Vermont Catamounts88%
212Tufts University JumbosBoston University Terriers87%
213Boston University TerriersBowdoin College Polar Bears 252%
214Tufts University JumbosUniversity of Vermont Catamounts87%
215Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1Bowdoin College Polar Bears 289%
216University of Vermont CatamountsBoston University Terriers50%upset
217Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2University of Vermont Catamounts49%upset
218Tufts University JumbosBowdoin College Polar Bears 146%upset
219Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1Boston University Terriers88%
220Tufts University JumbosBowdoin College Polar Bears 287%
321Tufts University JumbosUniversity of Vermont Catamounts87%
322Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2Boston University Terriers50%upset
323Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1University of Vermont Catamounts89%
324Tufts University JumbosBowdoin College Polar Bears 286%
325Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1Boston University Terriers89%
326Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2University of Vermont Catamounts51%
327Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1Tufts University Jumbos56%
328Boston University TerriersUniversity of Vermont Catamounts50%
329Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1Bowdoin College Polar Bears 289%
330Tufts University JumbosBoston University Terriers86%
431Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1Tufts University Jumbos56%
432Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2Boston University Terriers51%
433Tufts University JumbosUniversity of Vermont Catamounts87%
434Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1Boston University Terriers89%
435Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2University of Vermont Catamounts51%
436Tufts University JumbosBoston University Terriers86%
437Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1Bowdoin College Polar Bears 289%
438University of Vermont CatamountsBoston University Terriers49%upset
439Tufts University JumbosBowdoin College Polar Bears 286%
440Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1University of Vermont Catamounts89%

Round 1

TeamRec.1Jumbos2TerriersCatamounts
Bowdoin College Polar Bears 14–4✕L✕WW
Tufts University Jumbos4–0W✕WWW
Bowdoin College Polar Bears 24–4✕L✕WW
Boston University Terriers2–2LLL✕W
University of Vermont Catamounts0–4LLLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.1Jumbos2TerriersCatamounts
Bowdoin College Polar Bears 14–4✕L✕WW
Tufts University Jumbos4–0W✕WWW
Bowdoin College Polar Bears 24–4✕L✕WW
Boston University Terriers1–3LLL✕L
University of Vermont Catamounts1–3LLLW✕

Round 3

TeamRec.1Jumbos2TerriersCatamounts
Bowdoin College Polar Bears 16–2✕W✕WW
Tufts University Jumbos3–1L✕LWW
Bowdoin College Polar Bears 26–2✕W✕WW
Boston University Terriers1–3LLL✕W
University of Vermont Catamounts0–4LLLL✕

Round 4

TeamRec.1Jumbos2TerriersCatamounts
Bowdoin College Polar Bears 16–2✕L✕WW
Tufts University Jumbos3–1W✕WWW
Bowdoin College Polar Bears 26–2✕L✕WW
Boston University Terriers0–4LLL✕L
University of Vermont Catamounts1–3LLLW✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1 1-2-5 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2 3-4-6
2 Tufts University Jumbos 2-3-4 def. Boston University Terriers 1-5-6
3 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1 1-2-4 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 3-5-6
4 Boston University Terriers 2-3-4 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2 1-5-6
5 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-6 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1 3-4-5
6 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2 1-3-5 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 2-4-6
7 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1 1-2-5 def. Boston University Terriers 3-4-6
8 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-4 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 3-5-6
9 Boston University Terriers 1-2-5 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 3-4-6
10 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-3 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2 4-5-6
11 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1 1-2-3 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 4-5-6
12 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-5 def. Boston University Terriers 3-4-6
13 Boston University Terriers 1-3-5 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2 2-4-6
14 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-3 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 4-5-6
15 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1 1-2-3 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2 4-5-6
16 University of Vermont Catamounts 1-3-6 def. Boston University Terriers 2-4-5
17 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2 1-4-5 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 2-3-6
18 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-6 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1 3-4-5
19 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1 1-2-5 def. Boston University Terriers 3-4-6
20 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-5 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2 3-4-6
21 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-4 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 3-5-6
22 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2 1-3-6 def. Boston University Terriers 2-4-5
23 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1 1-2-4 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 3-5-6
24 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-3 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2 4-5-6
25 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1 1-2-3 def. Boston University Terriers 4-5-6
26 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2 1-2-4 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 3-5-6
27 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1 1-2-6 def. Tufts University Jumbos 3-4-5
28 Boston University Terriers 1-2-6 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 3-4-5
29 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1 1-2-3 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2 4-5-6
30 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-6 def. Boston University Terriers 3-4-5
31 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1 2-3-6 def. Tufts University Jumbos 1-4-5 DSQ
32 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2 1-2-6 def. Boston University Terriers 3-4-5
33 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-4 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 3-5-6
34 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1 1-2-3 def. Boston University Terriers 4-5-6
35 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2 1-2-6 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 3-4-5
36 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-3 def. Boston University Terriers 4-5-6
37 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1 1-3-4 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2 2-5-6
38 University of Vermont Catamounts 1-3-5 def. Boston University Terriers 2-4-6
39 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-3 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2 4-5-6
40 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1 1-3-5 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 2-4-6

Conditions — 03/25/2023 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 67%  ·  Pressure 1021.8 hPa

Temperature

36°F
↑ 38°F   ↓ 30°F
Feels like 28°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.9 kn
avg  ·  max 7.9 kn
Gusts to 16.7 kn
From ESE (105°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine5.0 hrs Humidity67% Pressure1021.8 hPa Snow0.69 in

What this breeze does at Bowdoin — from fleet racing

Breeze: E about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Bowdoin in this breeze: a typical day (+0.00)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Bowdoin by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (33 labelled fleet-race days at Bowdoin).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →