Charles Invitational

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Boston University Boston University Terriers 27
2 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 46
3 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 73
4 University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies 83
5 Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Cardinals 101
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Boston University Boston University Terriers B 2 1 3 1 1 1 9 Porter Bell '26
Carolyn Kravets '25
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies A 1 2 2 2 6 4 17 Liam Lawless '25
Kyle Fitzgerald '24
Boston University Boston University Terriers A 3 5 1 4 3 2 18 Nathan Selian '25
Shana Weitzen '25
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies B 4 8 5 7 2 3 29 Benjamin Wilkinson '26
Lila Coffman '26
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats B 6 3 4 6 4 9 32 Charles Wheeler '25
Vincent (Vinny) Pallotto '23
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats A 5 7 9 8 7 5 41 Sean Lund '26
Avery Wilson '25
University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies A 10 6 8 3 8 6 41 Elliott Trester '23
University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies B 7 4 10 9 5 7 42 Alliana Snead '23
Noelle Maloney '24
Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Cardinals B 9 9 7 5 9 8 47 Thomas Broadus '24
Sara Beth Bouchard '24
Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Cardinals A 8 10 6 10 10 10 54 Dennis Law '23
Katie Estep '25
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.130+0.13
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2019 (6 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers112233
University of ConnecticutUniversity of Connecticut Huskies334455
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats445566
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies223344
Wesleyan UniversityWesleyan University Cardinals556677

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers667788
University of ConnecticutUniversity of Connecticut Huskies88991010
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats99101011
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies778899
Wesleyan UniversityWesleyan University Cardinals10101122

Conditions — 09/10/2022 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 65%  ·  Pressure 1022.2 hPa

Temperature

76°F
↑ 80°F   ↓ 66°F
Feels like 80°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.5 kn
avg  ·  max 6.7 kn
Gusts to 13.8 kn
From ENE (65°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover9% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity65% Pressure1022.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Harvard: a favourites’ day (+0.05)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.10 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.16
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.32 ± 0.26)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Harvard by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (59 labelled days at Harvard).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →