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Southern Series 7

Analysis
# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Boston University Boston University Terriers 1 71
2 Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 84
3 University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen 121
4 Boston University Boston University Terriers 2 124
5 Brown University Brown University Bears 2 128
6 Brown University Brown University Bears 1 153
7 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 159
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks A 7 1 2 2 11 1 1 3 28 Emil Tullberg '25
Shannon Gondoly '25
Boston University Boston University Terriers 1 B 2 7 3 1 9 2 2 9 35 Nathan Selian '25
Marguerite Bowen '27
Boston University Boston University Terriers 1 A 1 3 1 4 6 5 4 12 36 Elliott Mendenhall '25
Morgan Contrino '24
University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen A 3 5 4 12 8 4 9 8 53 William Delong '25
Evelyn Buxton '26
Brown University Brown University Bears 2 B 10 4 8 8 12 3 3 6 54 Charles Case '26 [1-8]
Tucker Gibbs '27 [1]
Spencer Dellenbaugh '23 [2-8]
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks B 4 13 6 5 2 10 12 4 56 Olivia Lowthian '25
Frances Donahoe '24
Boston University Boston University Terriers 2 A 8 11 9 3 3 12 13 1 60 Richard Kalich '26
Sam Whipple '25
Boston University Boston University Terriers 2 B 6 2 14 6 7 7 11 11 64 Gavin Monaghan '26
Zachary Fournier '26
University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen B 12 12 5 9 4 13 6 7 68 Aoife Mahoney '27
Jocelyn Baliunas Baliunas '27
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies B 5 8 10 13 13 14 7 2 72 Isabella Cho '27
Emma Cole '25
Brown University Brown University Bears 2 A 9 10 12 7 5 9 8 14 74 Keller Morrison '25
Lucian Sharpe '24
Brown University Brown University Bears 1 B 14 6 11 11 10 8 5 10 75 Jean-Luc Depardieu '27 [1-8]
William Salerno '25 [1]
Ali Mcintyre '27 [2-8]
Brown University Brown University Bears 1 A 13 9 7 14 1 11 10 13 78 Daniel Van Heeckeren '26 [1-8]
Mara Oancea '27 [1-4]
William Salerno '25 [5-8]
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies A 11 14 13 10 14 6 14 5 87 Samuel Rooks '27
Ryan Tedeschi '28
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.080+0.08
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2012 (56 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers 111111111
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers 222222222
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 133333333
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 244444444
University of Massachusetts at AmherstUniversity of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen77777777
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies1515151515151515
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks66666666

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers 188888888
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers 299999999
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 11010101010101010
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 21111111111111111
University of Massachusetts at AmherstUniversity of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen1616161616161616
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies1212121212121212
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks1313131313131313

Conditions — 04/27/2024 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 52%  ·  Pressure 1031.0 hPa

Temperature

57°F
↑ 62°F   ↓ 43°F
Feels like 54°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.1 kn
avg  ·  max 6.1 kn
Gusts to 14.0 kn
From SSE (167°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover77% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity52% Pressure1031.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Boston University: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.05 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.09
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.17 ± 0.27)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Boston University by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (56 labelled days at Boston University).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →