Northeastern University '27
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.18 (fleet 1.65) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.02 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 1–15 (6%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 1 | 1–15 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (16 matches) the record is 1–15 against 3.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.5). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-03-18 | Brown Team Race Invite | skipper | 1.16 | -0.42 | 1–15 | 3.5 | −1.57 | 2.4 | 99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern Series 7 | Skipper | A | 8 | 10.9 | -0.64 |
| Central 1 | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.5 | 2.27 |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Peak Foliage | Skipper | B | 4 | 1.0 | — |
| BU Invite Oct | Skipper | B | 9 | 8.1 | 1.13 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern 5 Fleet Race / Ewenson Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.6 | -0.35 |
| George Morris Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 10.2 | 1.97 |
| Brown Team Race Invite | Skipper | TR | 16 | 6% | — |
| 2023 Central Series 4 | Skipper | B | 4 | 8.2 | 1.66 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
