Southern 7 Fleet Race

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Boston University Boston University Terriers 69
2 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 84
3 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 86
4 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 144
5 Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 162
6 Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 184
7 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 216
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams B 5 3 1 4 3 1 2 5 2 26 Tyler Miller '23
Jack Honan '23
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos A 3 5 2 1 1 3 6 2 6 29 Blake Vogel '26
Cindy Wang '25
Boston University Boston University Terriers B 1 1 5 5 8 2 4 1 7 34 Nathan Selian '25
Lachlan Hooper '25
Boston University Boston University Terriers A 2 2 3 3 4 13 1 4 3 35 Elliott Mendenhall '25
Morgan Contrino '24
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos B 10 11 6 9 2 4 8 3 4 57 Annecy Kagan '26
Stefano Chiampo '26
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams A 4 8 10 2 6 10 5 8 5 58 Thomas Johnson '23
Elizabeth Taylor '24
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies A 13 4 9 6 5 5 9 6 1 58 Aidan Boni '26
Andrew Wagner '26
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers A 6 10 7 12 10 9 3 10 8 75 John Van Zanten '25
Hannah Hicks '25
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks A 7 9 4 10 9 7 12 7 12 77 Sean Crandall '25
Amelia Conkey '26
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies B 11 6 12 13 7 8 7 11 11 86 Tyler Meadows '25
Mridhula Subramanian '25
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers B 8 7 11 7 13 12 11 9 9 87 Michael Morley '26
Caleb Burt '25
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats A 14 12 8 11 11 6 10 13 10 95 Henry Poynter '26
Jake Lacoche '26
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks B 9 14 13 8 12 11 14 12 14 107 Garrett Moen '23
Camille Cullen '26
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats B 12 13 14 14 14 14 13 14 13 121 Camren Conant '26
Julia Cotsonas '26
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.080+0.08
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2009 (55 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers111111111
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers222222222
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats666666666
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies333333333
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams777777777
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks444444444
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos555555555

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers888888888
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers999999999
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats151515151515151515
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies121212121212121212
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams161616161616161616
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks131313131313131313
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos141414141414141414

Conditions — 04/29/2023 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 79%  ·  Pressure 1016.2 hPa

Temperature

51°F
↑ 52°F   ↓ 48°F
Feels like 44°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
12.1 kn
avg  ·  max 13.6 kn
Gusts to 28.2 kn
From E (84°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.6 hrs Humidity79% Pressure1016.2 hPa Rain0.13 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 14 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Rhode Island: a favourites’ day (+0.04)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast +0.05
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.14 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Rhode Island by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (47 labelled days at Rhode Island).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →