Polar Bear Invite

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1 42 23 65
2 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 1 34 34 68
3 Boston University Boston University Terriers 28 43 71
4 Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2 42 38 80
5 Fairfield University Fairfield University Stags 34 47 81
6 Amherst College Amherst College Mammoths 42 74 116
7 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 2 91 55 146
8 University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen 71 81 152
9 Bates College Bates College Bobcats 71 86 157
10 Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 95 70 165
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Boston University Boston University Terriers 6 2 7 1 2 1 1 1 2 5 28 Nathan Selian '25
Adam Elci '26
Fairfield University Fairfield University Stags 1 1 4 3 8 3 6 3 3 2 34 Wilson Kaznoski '24
Grace Gunsalus '24
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 1 4 8 3 5 3 2 2 5 1 1 34 Grace Cannon '23
Martin Keene '23
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2 2 5 6 4 1 6 3 7 5 3 42 Benjamin Stevens '25
Lucy Dutton '25
Amherst College Amherst College Mammoths 3 4 2 2 4 5 7 2 6 7 42 James Knowlton '25
Nora Dockter '25
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1 5 3 1 7 6 4 4 4 4 4 42 Jonathan Chance '23
Aidan Michelow '25
University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen 7 7 5 6 9 8 5 6 8 10 71 Kate Myler '23
Patrick Whyte '25
Bates College Bates College Bobcats 8 6 8 8 5 7 8 8 7 6 71 Colby Green '25
Greta Shuster '25
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 2 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 9 9 8 91 Sonja Krajewski '26
Amelia Fisher '26
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 10 10 10 10 7 10 9 10 10 9 95 Robin Potter '25
Joseph Goldstein '23
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1 4 1 4 1 1 1 5 2 1 3 23 Alex Kitay '23 [1-10]
Katharine Kurtz '24 [1-4]
Alex Bloom '26 [5-10]
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 1 2 3 2 2 6 2 4 3 4 6 34 James Sullivan '25
Trixie Williams '26
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2 3 5 3 4 8 6 2 1 5 1 38 Kique Ruiz '26
Caleb Adams-Hull '23
Boston University Boston University Terriers 6 2 5 7 2 7 1 4 7 2 43 John Cabell '26
Sam Whipple '25
Fairfield University Fairfield University Stags 1 4 6 10 5 3 6 5 3 4 47 Anastasia Mastrocola '23
Anya Levine '23
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 2 8 8 1 5 7 5 8 6 2 5 55 Kathleen Hanson '25
Devon Valenta '26
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers DNS 6 10 8 4 4 3 9 6 9 70 Benjamin Joseph '26
Jake Coughlin-Ramassini '26
Amherst College Amherst College Mammoths 5 10 9 3 3 10 10 7 10 7 74 Adrian Whitney '26
Jack Dunham '25
University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen 7 7 7 9 9 8 7 10 9 8 81 Andy Giaya '24
Ariana Schreibman '23
Bates College Bates College Bobcats 9 9 8 6 10 9 9 8 8 10 86 Mitchel Soederberg '25
Alex Provasnik '25
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.180+0.18
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2021 (10 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
Amherst CollegeAmherst College Mammoths1111111111
Bates CollegeBates College Bobcats2222222222
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers3333333333
Bowdoin CollegeBowdoin College Polar Bears 14444444444
Bowdoin CollegeBowdoin College Polar Bears 25555555555
Fairfield UniversityFairfield University Stags6666666666
University of Massachusetts at AmherstUniversity of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen8888888888
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers7777777777
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats 19999999999
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats 210101010101010101010

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B
Amherst CollegeAmherst College Mammoths1111111111
Bates CollegeBates College Bobcats2222222222
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers3333333333
Bowdoin CollegeBowdoin College Polar Bears 14444444444
Bowdoin CollegeBowdoin College Polar Bears 25555555555
Fairfield UniversityFairfield University Stags6666666666
University of Massachusetts at AmherstUniversity of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen8888888888
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers7777777777
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats 19999999999
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats 210101010101010101010

Conditions — 04/22/2023 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 65%  ·  Pressure 1022.1 hPa

Temperature

48°F
↑ 50°F   ↓ 43°F
Feels like 42°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.5 kn
avg  ·  max 7.7 kn
Gusts to 19.6 kn
From SE (129°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity65% Pressure1022.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 8 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Bowdoin: an underdogs’ day (−0.02)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.05 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.03
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.18 ± 0.12)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Bowdoin by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (33 labelled days at Bowdoin).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →