| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Roger Williams University | Hawks | 14–4 |
| 2 |  |
Brown University | Bears | 14–4 |
| 3 |  |
Tufts University | Jumbos 1 | 14–4 |
| 4 | |
Tufts University | Jumbos 2 | 8–10 |
| 5 |  |
U. S. Coast Guard Academy | Bears | 7–11 |
| 6 |  |
Yale University | Bulldogs | 4–14 |
| 7 |  |
Dartmouth College | Big Green | 2–16 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 23,468 team race matches sailed before 2024-03-30, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 52 of 69 matches (75%) with a log-loss of 0.519 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.28 ± 0.27: an orderly event, more orderly than 73% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Brown University Bears | 8.69 | 9.38 | 16–6 | 13.1 | +0.69 | 1.4 | 13% |
| 4 | Tufts University Jumbos 2 | 7.54 | 8.00 | 8–10 | 6.3 | +0.46 | 0.6 | 26% |
| 3 | Tufts University Jumbos 1 | 8.68 | 9.13 | 15–7 | 13.1 | +0.45 | 0.6 | 25% |
| 5 | U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears | 7.37 | 7.74 | 7–11 | 5.7 | +0.37 | 0.4 | 32% |
| 1 | Roger Williams University Hawks | 9.57 | 9.39 | 17–5 | 17.6 | −0.18 | 0.1 | 74% |
| 6 | Yale University Bulldogs | 7.93 | 6.75 | 4–14 | 8.0 | −1.18 | 3.3 | 99% |
| 7 | Dartmouth College Big Green | 7.26 | 6.01 | 2–16 | 5.2 | −1.25 | 2.6 | 99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haley Andreasen | Tufts University | 2.25 | 2.71 | 8–10 | 6.3 | +0.46 | 0.6 | 26% |
| Connor Rosow | Tufts University | 2.61 | 3.06 | 15–7 | 13.1 | +0.45 | 0.6 | 25% |
| Luke Zylinski | U. S. Coast Guard Academy | 2.40 | 2.77 | 7–11 | 5.7 | +0.37 | 0.4 | 32% |
| Bradley Whiteway | U. S. Coast Guard Academy | 2.40 | 2.76 | 7–11 | 5.7 | +0.37 | 0.4 | 32% |
| Drew Mastovsky | Roger Williams University | 2.93 | 2.57 | 5–1 | 5.3 | −0.37 | 0.1 | 84% |
| Alex Adams | Yale University | 2.52 | 1.35 | 4–14 | 8.0 | −1.18 | 3.3 | 99% |
| Mathias Reimer | Yale University | 2.17 | 0.99 | 4–14 | 8.0 | −1.18 | 3.3 | 99% |
| Ava Hurwitz | Dartmouth College | 1.69 | 0.44 | 2–16 | 5.2 | −1.25 | 2.6 | 99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Hawks | Bears | 1 | 2 | Bears | Bulldogs | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roger Williams University Hawks | 4–2 | ✕ | L | W | W | W | W | W |
| Brown University Bears | 4–2 | W | ✕ | W | W | W | L | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos 1 | 9–3 | L | L | ✕ | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos 2 | 9–3 | L | L | ✕ | ✕ | W | W | W |
| U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears | 2–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Yale University Bulldogs | 1–5 | L | W | L | L | L | ✕ | L |
| Dartmouth College Big Green | 1–5 | L | L | L | L | L | W | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Hawks | Bears | 1 | 2 | Bears | Bulldogs | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roger Williams University Hawks | 5–1 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | L | W |
| Brown University Bears | 5–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos 1 | 7–5 | L | L | ✕ | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos 2 | 7–5 | L | L | ✕ | ✕ | W | W | W |
| U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears | 2–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Yale University Bulldogs | 1–5 | W | L | L | L | L | ✕ | L |
| Dartmouth College Big Green | 1–5 | L | L | L | L | L | W | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Hawks | Bears | 1 | 2 | Bears | Bulldogs | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roger Williams University Hawks | 5–1 | ✕ | W | L | L | W | W | W |
| Brown University Bears | 5–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos 1 | 6–6 | W | L | ✕ | ✕ | L | L | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos 2 | 6–6 | W | L | ✕ | ✕ | L | L | W |
| U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears | 3–3 | L | L | W | W | ✕ | W | W |
| Yale University Bulldogs | 2–4 | L | L | W | W | L | ✕ | W |
| Dartmouth College Big Green | 0–6 | L | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Hawks | Bears | 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roger Williams University Hawks | 1–1 | ✕ | W | L | L |
| Brown University Bears | 1–1 | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos 1 | 1–1 | W | L | ✕ | ✕ |
| Tufts University Jumbos 2 | 1–1 | W | L | ✕ | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Hawks | Bears | 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roger Williams University Hawks | 2–0 | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Brown University Bears | 1–1 | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos 1 | 0–2 | L | L | ✕ | ✕ |
| Tufts University Jumbos 2 | 0–2 | L | L | ✕ | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Bears | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Big Green | 1-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Bears | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Hawks | 1-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Jumbos 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Jumbos 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Bears | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Big Green | 2-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Jumbos 1 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Hawks | 2-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Jumbos 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Jumbos 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Big Green | 3-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Hawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Jumbos 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Bulldogs | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bears | 1-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Jumbos 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Jumbos 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Big Green | 3-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Hawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Jumbos 1 | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Bears | 2-3-6 |
| 16 | |
Jumbos 2 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bears | 1-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Hawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Big Green | 3-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Jumbos 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Bears | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Jumbos 2 | 1-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Hawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Big Green | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 1-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Hawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Jumbos 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Bears | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Bears | 2-4-5 |
| 24 | |
Jumbos 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Big Green | 3-4-5 |
| 25 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hawks | 3-4-6 |
| 26 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Jumbos 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 27 | |
Jumbos 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Big Green | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 2-4-6 |
| 29 | |
Hawks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bears | 1-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Jumbos 2 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Jumbos 1 | 2-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Bears | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Big Green | 2-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-6 |
| 33 | |
Hawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Jumbos 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 34 | |
Jumbos 2 | 2-4-5 | def. | |
Big Green | 1-3-6 RAF |
| 35 | |
Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-5 |
| 36 | |
Bears | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Jumbos 1 | 2-3-6 |
| 37 | |
Hawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Big Green | 3-5-6 |
| 38 | |
Jumbos 2 | 2-4-6 | def. | |
Bears | 1-3-5 DSQ |
| 39 | |
Jumbos 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-5-6 |
| 40 | |
Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Big Green | 3-4-5 |
| 41 | |
Hawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 42 | |
Jumbos 2 | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 2-3-6 |
| 43 | |
Bears | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Jumbos 2 | 2-5-6 |
| 44 | |
Hawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 45 | |
Jumbos 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Big Green | 3-4-6 |
| 46 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-6 |
| 47 | |
Hawks | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Jumbos 2 | 2-4-6 |
| 48 | |
Jumbos 1 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bears | 1-5-6 |
| 49 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Big Green | 3-4-5 |
| 50 | |
Hawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 51 | |
Jumbos 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Jumbos 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 52 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Big Green | 3-4-6 |
| 53 | |
Hawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-6 |
| 54 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Jumbos 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 55 | |
Jumbos 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Big Green | 3-4-6 |
| 56 | |
Bears | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 2-4-6 |
| 57 | |
Jumbos 1 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Hawks | 2-5-6 |
| 58 | |
Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Big Green | 3-5-6 |
| 59 | |
Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Jumbos 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 60 | |
Jumbos 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 4-5-6 |
| 61 | |
Hawks | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Big Green | 1-4-6 |
| 62 | |
Bears | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Bears | 2-5-6 |
| 63 | |
Bulldogs | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Jumbos 2 | 1-5-6 |
| 67 | |
Jumbos 1 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Hawks | 2-5-6 |
| 68 | |
Bears | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Jumbos 1 | 2-3-6 |
| 69 | |
Hawks | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Bears | 2-3-6 |
| 64 | |
Hawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Jumbos 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 65 | |
Hawks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bears | 1-5-6 |
| 66 | |
Bears | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Jumbos 1 | 1-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Roger Williams University | Hawks | Drew Mastovsky '26 Jack Roman '26 Mathieu Dale '25 Oliver Stokke '26 |
Carter Sheehan '27 Julia O'Connor '24 Addyson Fisher '27 |
|
Brown University | Bears | Connor Macken '24 Ethan Simpson '27 Mason Stang '25 |
Catherine Morrissette '24 Janelle Li '25 Olivia Miller '25 |
|
Tufts University | Jumbos 1 | Connor Rosow '24 Jack Flores '25 Kurt Stuebe '27 |
Amelia Carlson '24 Leo Terry '25 Matthew Caplan '25 |
|
Tufts University | Jumbos 2 | Courtland Doyle '27 Gus Macaulay '27 Haley Andreasen '25 |
Stefano Chiampo '26 Sean Beaver '27 Cody Lamoreux '27 |
|
U. S. Coast Guard Academy | Bears | Bradley Whiteway '26 Kevin Gosselin '27 Luke Zylinski '26 |
Gavin Vanmanen '27 Jin Johnson '24 Sarah Krajewski '26 |
|
Yale University | Bulldogs | Alex Adams '26 Mathias Reimer '27 Megan Grimes '24 |
Mary Madaus '25 Ariana Borut '27 Julia Miller '26 |
|
Dartmouth College | Big Green | Ava Hurwitz '27 Ben Sheppard '27 Oliver Hurwitz '25 |
Will Eggena '27 Sophie Menyhart '27 Vivian Heitkoetter '27 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
