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Staake Trophy

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 12–0
2 Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 7–5
3 Boston University Boston University Terriers 6–6
4 University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 5–7
5 Maine Maritime Academy Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 0–12

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 23,468 team race matches sailed before 2024-03-30, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 26 of 30 matches (87%) with a log-loss of 0.297 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.14 ± 0.32: a typical event, more orderly than 58% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Bowdoin College
Polar Bears		19.87
home +0.41		Thomas Hall / Isabelle Tsuchitori 3.30
Sam Bonauto / Timmy Gee 3.13 6–0
Thibault Antonietti / Kaile Olson 3.04 6–0
Sam Bonauto / Kique Ruiz 3.01 6–0
Thibault Antonietti / Timmy Gee 3.14 6–0		96%12–0 (100%)+0.5
2Connecticut College
Camels		36.39
school +0.27		Charles Bresnahan / Tatem Gee 1.73
Ryan Mckinney / Cecilia Bohan 2.34 5–4
Wade Anthony / Andrew Selian 2.22 2–4
Andrew Powers / Liam Gronda 1.82 5–1
Ryan Mckinney / Vivian Smith 2.31 2–1		42%7–5 (58%)+1.9
3Boston University
Terriers		27.71
school +0.10		Noah Robitshek / Benjamin Luu 2.95
Porter Bell / Nicholas Thibodeau 2.08
Elliott Mendenhall / Morgan Contrino 2.53		67%6–6 (50%)−2.0
4University of Vermont
Catamounts		45.99
school −0.31		Calvin Lamosse / Will Broseman 2.17
Cooper Smith / Jack Taylor 2.02
Christian Cushman / Brooke Willke 2.08		36%5–7 (42%)+0.6
5Maine Maritime Academy
Mariners		54.34
school +0.44		Nathan Hyde / Anna Ladue
Henri Richardsson / William Ries
Ella Beauregard / Amelia Griffith		8%0–12 (0%)−1.0

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1Bowdoin College9.8712.8712–011.5≥+3.000.759%
2Connecticut College6.397.497–55.1+1.101.514%
4University of Vermont5.996.385–74.4+0.400.245%
3Boston University7.716.446–68.0−1.272.098%
5Maine Maritime Academy4.341.340–121.0≤−3.001.5>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Thibault AntoniettiBowdoin College3.046.0412–011.5≥+3.000.759%
Wade AnthonyConnecticut College2.223.522–40.8+1.311.219%
Ryan MckinneyConnecticut College2.343.447–55.1+1.101.514%
Charles BresnahanConnecticut College1.732.837–55.1+1.101.514%
Andrew PowersConnecticut College1.822.615–14.3+0.800.443%
Elliott MendenhallBoston University2.531.266–68.0−1.272.098%
Nathan HydeMaine Maritime Academy0.85-2.150–121.0≤−3.001.5>99%
Henri RichardssonMaine Maritime Academy1.28-1.720–121.0≤−3.001.5>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Bowdoin CollegeUniversity of Vermont98%
12Boston UniversityConnecticut College76%
13Bowdoin CollegeMaine Maritime Academy100%
14Boston UniversityUniversity of Vermont85%
15Connecticut CollegeMaine Maritime Academy89%
16Bowdoin CollegeBoston University90%
17University of VermontConnecticut College45%upset
18Boston UniversityMaine Maritime Academy97%
19Bowdoin CollegeConnecticut College96%
110University of VermontMaine Maritime Academy85%
211Bowdoin CollegeUniversity of Vermont98%
212Connecticut CollegeMaine Maritime Academy87%
213Boston UniversityMaine Maritime Academy97%
214Bowdoin CollegeConnecticut College96%
215Bowdoin CollegeMaine Maritime Academy100%
216Boston UniversityUniversity of Vermont85%
217University of VermontMaine Maritime Academy83%
218Connecticut CollegeBoston University24%upset
219Bowdoin CollegeBoston University89%
220Connecticut CollegeUniversity of Vermont55%
321University of VermontMaine Maritime Academy82%
322Bowdoin CollegeBoston University89%
323Connecticut CollegeMaine Maritime Academy85%
324University of VermontBoston University15%upset
325Bowdoin CollegeUniversity of Vermont98%
326Connecticut CollegeBoston University24%upset
327Boston UniversityMaine Maritime Academy96%
328Bowdoin CollegeConnecticut College96%
329Connecticut CollegeUniversity of Vermont55%
330Bowdoin CollegeMaine Maritime Academy100%

Round 1

TeamRec.BearsCamelsTerriersCatamountsMariners
Bowdoin College Polar Bears4–0✕WWWW
Connecticut College Camels1–3L✕LLW
Boston University Terriers3–1LW✕WW
University of Vermont Catamounts2–2LWL✕W
Maine Maritime Academy Mariners0–4LLLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.BearsCamelsTerriersCatamountsMariners
Bowdoin College Polar Bears4–0✕WWWW
Connecticut College Camels3–1L✕WWW
Boston University Terriers2–2LL✕WW
University of Vermont Catamounts1–3LLL✕W
Maine Maritime Academy Mariners0–4LLLL✕

Round 3

TeamRec.BearsCamelsTerriersCatamountsMariners
Bowdoin College Polar Bears4–0✕WWWW
Connecticut College Camels3–1L✕WWW
Boston University Terriers1–3LL✕LW
University of Vermont Catamounts2–2LLW✕W
Maine Maritime Academy Mariners0–4LLLL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-2-5 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 3-4-6
2 Boston University Terriers 1-2-6 def. Connecticut College Camels 3-4-5
3 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-2-3 def. Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 4-5-6
4 Boston University Terriers 2-3-5 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 1-4-6
5 Connecticut College Camels 1-2-4 def. Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 3-5-6
6 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-2-3 def. Boston University Terriers 4-5-6
7 University of Vermont Catamounts 1-2-3 def. Connecticut College Camels 4-5-6
8 Boston University Terriers 1-2-5 def. Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 3-4-6
9 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-2-5 def. Connecticut College Camels 3-4-6
10 University of Vermont Catamounts 1-4-5 def. Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 2-3-6
11 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-2-5 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 3-4-6
12 Connecticut College Camels 1-2-4 def. Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 3-5-6
13 Boston University Terriers 1-2-5 def. Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 3-4-6
14 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-2-4 def. Connecticut College Camels 3-5-6
15 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-2-4 def. Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 3-5-6
16 Boston University Terriers 1-2-6 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 3-4-5
17 University of Vermont Catamounts 1-2-6 def. Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 3-4-5
18 Connecticut College Camels 1-2-6 def. Boston University Terriers 3-4-5
19 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-2-3 def. Boston University Terriers 4-5-6
20 Connecticut College Camels 1-3-6 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 2-4-5
21 University of Vermont Catamounts 2-3-4 def. Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 1-5-6
22 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-2-5 def. Boston University Terriers 3-4-6
23 Connecticut College Camels 1-2-4 def. Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 3-5-6
24 University of Vermont Catamounts 1-2-4 def. Boston University Terriers 3-5-6
25 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-2-4 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 3-5-6
26 Connecticut College Camels 1-3-6 def. Boston University Terriers 2-4-5
27 Boston University Terriers 1-2-5 def. Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 3-4-6
28 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-2-3 def. Connecticut College Camels 4-5-6
29 Connecticut College Camels 1-3-5 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 2-4-6
30 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-2-3 def. Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 4-5-6

Conditions — 03/30/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 41%  ·  Pressure 999.6 hPa

Temperature

42°F
↑ 46°F   ↓ 34°F
Feels like 32°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
11.3 kn
avg  ·  max 13.6 kn
Gusts to 30.3 kn
From WNW (300°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover18% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity41% Pressure999.6 hPa

What this breeze does at Bowdoin — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Bowdoin in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.06)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Bowdoin by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (33 labelled fleet-race days at Bowdoin).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →