Ivan Geiger Team Race

HostMIT
Date03/16/2024
TypeFundamental
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Boston College	Eagles	14–3
2	Boston University	Terriers	13–4
3	Roger Williams University	Hawks	11–6
4	Brown University	Bears	9–8
5	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	9–8
6	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	8–9
7	University of Vermont	Catamounts	3–14
8	Salve Regina University	Seahawks	1–16

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 22,767 team race matches sailed before 2024-03-16, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 52 of 68 matches (76%) with a log-loss of 0.452 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.15 ± 0.23: a typical event, more orderly than 61% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Boston College Eagles	1	9.15 school +0.25	Jack Redmond / Grace Beneke 3.11 12–3 Nick Budington / Matt Budington 2.99 10–3 Ian Hopkins Guerra / Emily Marlas 2.91 9–3 Ryan Mcgauley / Kennedy Laureigh 11–0	87%	14–3 (82%)	−0.8
2	Boston University Terriers	4	7.33	Noah Robitshek / Benjamin Luu 2.75 Porter Bell / Adam Elci 2.12 Elliott Mendenhall / Morgan Contrino 2.41	50%	13–4 (76%)	+4.5
3	Roger Williams University Hawks	2	8.03 school +0.29	Luke Hosek / Ethan Snyder 2.15 Jack Roman / Dawson Chambers-Tartaglino 2.68 Drew Mastovsky / Ruby Hope 2.87	65%	11–6 (65%)	−0.0
4	Brown University Bears	3	7.96 school +0.25	Connor Macken / Sierra Bornheim 2.52 Sidney Moyer / Corinne Harrison 2.12 Ethan Simpson / Talia Levine 3.02	63%	9–8 (53%)	−1.8
5	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	6	6.73 school +0.06, home +0.40	Robert Ulmer / Ellie Pinto 2.90 Max Katz-Christy / Karen Dreicer Liberman 2.34 Lucas Escandon / Elliott Chalcraft 4–5 Lucas Escandon / Katherine Jankowski 5–3	47%	9–8 (53%)	+1.0
6	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	5	6.88	Peter Mcgonagle / Grace Austin 2.08 5–7 Kevin Gosselin / Gavin Vanmanen 7–4 Luke Zylinski / Aiana Cayao 2.35 4–5 Bradley Whiteway / Aiana Cayao 2.33 4–4 Bradley Whiteway / Julian Henderson 2.37 1–5 Peter Mcgonagle / Austin White 2.09 3–2	49%	8–9 (47%)	−0.3
7	University of Vermont Catamounts	7	5.51 school −0.30	Christian Cushman / Brooke Willke 2.05 Calvin Lamosse / Will Broseman 2.16 Zachary Amelotte / Ryan Thompson 1.38 2–8 Gavin Sanborn / Ryan Thompson 1.73 1–4 Gavin Sanborn / Campbell Mcclellan 1.79 0–2	21%	3–14 (18%)	−0.6
8	Salve Regina University Seahawks	8	5.29 school −0.31	Olivia Lowthian / Caelan Haddock 2.03 Sean Morrison / Charlotte Martinez 0.99 Emil Tullberg / Mikaela Williams 2.49 1–10 Emil Tullberg / Lilly Dubovsky 2.49 0–6	18%	1–16 (6%)	−2.0

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
2	Boston University	7.33	8.89	13–4	8.5	+1.55	4.9	1%
5	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	6.73	7.06	9–8	8.0	+0.33	0.2	39%
3	Roger Williams University	8.03	8.02	11–6	11.0	−0.01	0.0	63%
6	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	6.88	6.77	8–9	8.3	−0.11	0.0	68%
7	University of Vermont	5.51	5.25	3–14	3.6	−0.26	0.1	75%
1	Boston College	9.15	8.77	14–3	14.8	−0.39	0.2	84%
4	Brown University	7.96	7.39	9–8	10.8	−0.57	0.7	91%
8	Salve Regina University	5.29	3.90	1–16	3.0	−1.39	1.7	97%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Elliott Mendenhall	Boston University	2.41	3.96	13–4	8.5	+1.55	4.9	1%
Max Katz-Christy	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	2.34	2.67	9–8	8.0	+0.33	0.2	39%
Luke Zylinski	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	2.35	2.56	4–5	3.7	+0.20	0.0	56%
Drew Mastovsky	Roger Williams University	2.87	2.86	11–6	11.0	−0.01	0.0	63%
Peter Mcgonagle	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	2.08	1.97	8–9	8.3	−0.11	0.0	68%
Bradley Whiteway	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	2.33	2.01	5–9	5.8	−0.32	0.2	79%
Emil Tullberg	Salve Regina University	2.49	1.10	1–16	3.0	−1.39	1.7	97%
Olivia Lowthian	Salve Regina University	2.03	0.64	1–16	3.0	−1.39	1.7	97%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	46%	upset
1	2	Boston University	Roger Williams University	34%	upset
1	3	Brown University	Salve Regina University	94%
1	4	Boston College	University of Vermont	98%
1	5	Boston University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	64%
1	6	Brown University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	79%
1	7	Roger Williams University	University of Vermont	94%
1	8	Boston College	Salve Regina University	98%
1	9	Boston University	Brown University	35%	upset
1	10	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Vermont	76%
1	11	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Salve Regina University	80%
1	12	Roger Williams University	Boston College	22%	upset
1	13	University of Vermont	Brown University	9%	upset
1	14	Boston University	Salve Regina University	89%
1	15	Roger Williams University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	76%
1	16	Boston College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	91%
1	17	Salve Regina University	University of Vermont	48%	upset
1	18	Roger Williams University	Brown University	52%
1	19	Boston University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	66%
1	20	Boston College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	90%
1	21	Roger Williams University	Salve Regina University	94%
1	22	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	University of Vermont	79%
1	23	Brown University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	74%
1	24	Boston College	Boston University	86%
1	25	Roger Williams University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	79%
1	26	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Salve Regina University	83%
1	27	Boston University	University of Vermont	83%
1	28	Brown University	Boston College	21%	upset
2	29	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	47%	upset
2	30	Boston University	Roger Williams University	33%	upset
2	31	Brown University	Salve Regina University	93%
2	32	Boston College	University of Vermont	98%
2	33	Boston University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	62%
2	34	Brown University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	77%
2	35	Roger Williams University	University of Vermont	93%
2	36	Boston College	Salve Regina University	98%
2	37	Boston University	Brown University	35%	upset
2	38	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Vermont	76%
2	39	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Salve Regina University	81%
2	40	Boston College	Roger Williams University	78%
2	41	Brown University	University of Vermont	91%
2	42	Boston University	Salve Regina University	88%
2	43	Roger Williams University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	75%
2	44	Boston College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	90%
2	45	University of Vermont	Salve Regina University	52%
2	46	Brown University	Roger Williams University	49%	upset
2	47	Boston University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	64%
2	48	Boston College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	89%
2	49	Roger Williams University	Salve Regina University	94%
2	50	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	University of Vermont	80%
2	51	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Brown University	26%	upset
2	52	Boston College	Boston University	86%
2	53	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Roger Williams University	22%	upset
2	54	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Salve Regina University	83%
2	55	Boston University	University of Vermont	83%
2	56	Boston College	Brown University	79%
4	57	Roger Williams University	Boston College	22%	upset
4	58	Boston University	Brown University	34%	upset
4	59	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Vermont	77%
4	60	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Salve Regina University	82%
4	61	Boston College	Brown University	79%
4	62	Roger Williams University	Boston University	67%
4	63	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Salve Regina University	84%
4	64	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	University of Vermont	80%
4	65	Brown University	Roger Williams University	49%	upset
4	66	Boston College	Boston University	86%
4	67	University of Vermont	Salve Regina University	52%
4	68	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	53%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Eagles	Terriers	Hawks	Bears	Engineers	Bears	Catamounts	Seahawks
Boston College Eagles	5–2	✕	W	L	L	W	W	W	W
Boston University Terriers	6–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	6–1	W	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	4–3	W	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	3–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	2–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
University of Vermont Catamounts	1–6	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕	L
Salve Regina University Seahawks	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Eagles	Terriers	Hawks	Bears	Engineers	Bears	Catamounts	Seahawks
Boston College Eagles	7–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Boston University Terriers	6–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	3–4	L	L	✕	L	L	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	4–3	L	L	W	✕	W	L	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	4–3	L	L	W	L	✕	W	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	3–4	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W	W
University of Vermont Catamounts	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Salve Regina University Seahawks	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Eagles	Terriers	Hawks	Bears	Engineers	Bears	Catamounts	Seahawks
Boston College Eagles	2–1	✕	W	L	W	–	–	–	–
Boston University Terriers	1–2	L	✕	L	W	–	–	–	–
Roger Williams University Hawks	2–1	W	W	✕	L	–	–	–	–
Brown University Bears	1–2	L	L	W	✕	–	–	–	–
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	2–1	–	–	–	–	✕	L	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	3–0	–	–	–	–	W	✕	W	W
University of Vermont Catamounts	1–2	–	–	–	–	L	L	✕	W
Salve Regina University Seahawks	0–3	–	–	–	–	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
2	Terriers	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
3	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Seahawks	2-5-6
4	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
5	Terriers	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
6	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
7	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Catamounts	3-4-5
8	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
9	Terriers	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
10	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
11	Engineers	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
12	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
13	Catamounts	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
14	Terriers	1-3-4	def.	Seahawks	2-5-6
15	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
16	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6 DNF
17	Seahawks	1-3-6	def.	Catamounts	2-4-5
18	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
19	Terriers	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
20	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
21	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
22	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Catamounts	3-4-5
23	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
24	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Terriers	4-5-6
25	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
26	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Seahawks	2-4-6
27	Terriers	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
28	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
29	Engineers	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
30	Terriers	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
31	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
32	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
33	Terriers	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
34	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Engineers	2-4-6
35	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
36	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
37	Terriers	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
38	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Catamounts	3-4-5
39	Engineers	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
40	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
41	Bears	1-3-6	def.	Catamounts	2-4-5
42	Terriers	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
43	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
44	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
45	Catamounts	2-3-4	def.	Seahawks	1-5-6
46	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Hawks	2-4-6
47	Terriers	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
48	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
49	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Seahawks	1-5-6
50	Engineers	2-3-4	def.	Catamounts	1-5-6
51	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
52	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Terriers	3-5-6
53	Engineers	2-3-5	def.	Hawks	1-4-6
54	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
55	Terriers	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
56	Eagles	1-2-6 DNF	def.	Bears	3-4-5
57	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
58	Terriers	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
59	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Catamounts	3-4-5
60	Engineers	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
61	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
62	Hawks	2-3-5	def.	Terriers	1-4-6
63	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Seahawks	1-5-6
64	Engineers	1-3-4	def.	Catamounts	2-5-6
65	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
66	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Terriers	4-5-6
67	Catamounts	1-4-5	def.	Seahawks	2-3-6
68	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Boston College	Eagles	Ian Hopkins Guerra '26 Jack Redmond '26 Nick Budington '25 Ryan Mcgauley '27	Emily Marlas '26 Grace Beneke '24 Matt Budington '25 Kennedy Laureigh '26
Boston University	Terriers	Elliott Mendenhall '25 Noah Robitshek '25 Porter Bell '26	Morgan Contrino '24 Benjamin Luu '26 Adam Elci '26
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Drew Mastovsky '26 Jack Roman '26 Luke Hosek '24	Ruby Hope '25 Dawson Chambers-Tartaglino '27 Ethan Snyder '25
Brown University	Bears	Connor Macken '24 Ethan Simpson '27 Sidney Moyer '27	Sierra Bornheim '24 Talia Levine '26 Corinne Harrison '27
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	Lucas Escandon '26 Max Katz-Christy '25 Robert Ulmer '27	Katherine Jankowski '27 Elliott Chalcraft '27 Karen Dreicer Liberman '24 Ellie Pinto '27
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	Bradley Whiteway '26 Kevin Gosselin '27 Luke Zylinski '26 Peter Mcgonagle '25	Aiana Cayao '26 Julian Henderson '27 Gavin Vanmanen '27 Grace Austin '27 Austin White '27
University of Vermont	Catamounts	Calvin Lamosse '25 Christian Cushman '25 Gavin Sanborn '25 Zachary Amelotte '27	Will Broseman '26 Brooke Willke '24 Ryan Thompson '26 Campbell Mcclellan '26
Salve Regina University	Seahawks	Emil Tullberg '25 Olivia Lowthian '25 Sean Morrison '27	Mikaela Williams '27 Lilly Dubovsky '27 Caelan Haddock '25 Charlotte Martinez '23

Conditions — 03/16/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 59% · Pressure 1008.0 hPa

Temperature

51°F

↑ 56°F ↓ 35°F

Feels like 45°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

5.1 kn

avg · max 6.7 kn

Gusts to 13.8 kn

From WSW (245°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover51% Sunshine10.6 hrs Humidity59% Pressure1008.0 hPa Rain0.02 in

What this breeze does at MIT — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at MIT in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.06)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at MIT by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (112 labelled fleet-race days at MIT).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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