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Mystic Lake Invite

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 17 17
2 Brown University Brown University Bears 2 20 20
3 Brown University Brown University Bears 1 20 20
4 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 2 22 22
5 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 3 24 24
6 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 4 29 29
7 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 1 30 30
8 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 39 39
9 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 4 42 42
10 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 3 44 44
11 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2 45 45
12 Brown University Brown University Bears 3 47 47
13 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 1 50 50
14 Brown University Brown University Bears 4 51 51
15 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1 54 54
16 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 4 57 57
17 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 58 58
18 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 4 64 64
19 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 2 66 66
20 Brown University Brown University Bears 5 72 72
21 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 3 73 73
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 4 3 1 9 17 Pearse Dowd '29
Margaret Klein '26
Brown University Brown University Bears 2 8 4 5 3 20 Noah Stapleton '29
Marin Soderberg '28
Brown University Brown University Bears 1 14 2 3 1 20 James Brock '28
Phoebe Fogarty '29
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 2 2 6 12 2 22 Bo Angus '29
Jancy Grayson '28
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 3 6 5 6 7 24 Parker Moore '29
Peter Cotoia '26
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 4 3 10 11 5 29 Edward Herman '28
Maddy Martin '29
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 1 1 21 4 4 30 Drew Mastovsky '26
Dawson Chambers-Tartaglino '27
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 13 7 13 6 39 Crue Ziskind '29
Jack Poynter '29
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 4 19 1 9 13 42 Walter Mcfarland '29
Harrison Vose '26
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 3 10 16 10 8 44 Zachary Severson '26
Ava Kiss '29
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2 17 11 2 15 45 Joey Richardson '28
Julian Henderson '27
Brown University Brown University Bears 3 5 8 20 14 47 Emery Diemar '28
Phoebe Hackett '28
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 1 11 14 7 18 50 Max Sigel '26
Savannah Miner '28
Brown University Brown University Bears 4 18 9 14 10 51 Gabby Collins '28
Talia Levine '26
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1 7 20 8 19 54 David Vinogradov '28
Gabriella Fields '28
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 4 12 17 17 11 57 Madeline Murphy '29
Austin White '27
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 9 19 18 12 58 Grant Schmidt '28
Sarah Leary '28
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 4 15 18 15 16 64 Jaxon Hottinger '29
Matthew Dupree '29
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 2 20 13 16 17 66 Leonardo Burnham '29
Harper Kelley '29
Brown University Brown University Bears 5 16 15 21 20 72 Dominic Ciccimaro '29
Kyoko Tonkin '29
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 3 21 12 19 21 73 Peter Judge '29
Morgan Batchelder '29
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.110+0.11
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2011 (10 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 11122
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 22233
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 33344
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 44455
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 5552828
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 112121313
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 213131414
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 314141515
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 415151616
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams 116163030
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams 230301717
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams 317171818
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams 4181811
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks 1282866
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks 26677
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks 37788
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks 48899
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 1991010
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 210101111
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 311112929
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 429291212

Conditions — 09/13/2025 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy
Humidity 65%  ·  Pressure 1019.5 hPa

Temperature

68°F
↑ 72°F   ↓ 57°F
Feels like 68°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.8 kn
avg  ·  max 5.9 kn
Gusts to 13.8 kn
From SSE (151°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover46% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity65% Pressure1019.5 hPa Rain0.01 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 7 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Tufts: a typical day (−0.02)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment −0.16 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.17
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.15 ± 0.20)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tufts by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (60 labelled days at Tufts).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →