Graham Welsh

Rating History

Crew Rating

Career: 52.90 percentile of ICSA crews (limited evidence)
1.501.752.002.25R. Kalich (8 races): -0.33R. KalichFall 2025: rating 2.07Fall 2025Boston UniversityB. Rathbun (8 races): +0.01B. RathbunFall 2026: rating 1.70Fall 2026Boston University
▲ boats did better with this crew than with the skipper's usual crews▼ worseArrow length = size of the push, in rating points
Season Team Rating Range League
percentile
Team
percentile
On team Races Team page
Fall 2026 Boston University 1.70 Rating 1.70; 90% range -1.6 to 5.0; team skipper average 1.85 58.27 63.33 6 of 15 8 Team page
Fall 2025 Boston University 2.07 Rating 2.07; 90% range -1.3 to 5.4; team skipper average 1.61 66.90 83.33 3 of 15 10 Team page

Team Race Rating

Rating Rank vs fleet rating Record
1.21 (fleet 1.65) 300 of 331 +0.02 ± 0.17
about what the fleet rating predicts
as skipper 9–26 (26%)
as crew 1–3 (25%)
SeasonRegattas Skipper W–LCrew W–L
Fall 202610–61–3
Spring 202639–20—
0.911.11.21.3Spring 2026Fall 2026RWU Team Race (2026-03-21): rating 1.03, fleet rating alone 1.03, offset -0.00; record 1-9 in this boatAlymers Team race (2026-04-12): rating 1.09, fleet rating alone 1.08, offset +0.01; record 7-2 in this boatNorman Reid Team Race (2026-10-24): rating 1.23, fleet rating alone 1.19, offset +0.04; record 0-6 in this boatTeam race rating

Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.

Team race surprisal: regatta by regatta

Over 5 graded regattas (39 matches) the record is 10–29 against 9.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.6). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.

DateRegattaRole Value Perf. RecordExp.
wins
Δ Surprise
(bits)
P(this good
or better)
2026-10-24Norman Reid Team Raceskipper1.70-1.300–60.8≤−3.001.1>99%
2026-10-24Norman Reid Team Racecrew1.701.121–31.4−0.580.286%
2026-04-12Alymers Team raceskipper1.422.657–25.5+1.231.317%
2026-03-21RWU Team Raceskipper1.231.521–90.8+0.290.059%
2026-02-28McMerrick Team Race Saturdayskipper1.211.211–91.0+0.000.066%

Regatta results

Regatta Role Div Races Avg Rating
Fall 2026 Team page Season
Sister Esther Whalen Trophy Crew B 8 7.8 +0.01
Savin Hill Invite Skipper B 4 7.2 2.21
Penobscot Bay Open Skipper B 14 10.5 -0.75
Norman Reid Team Race Skipper TR 10 10% —
Mystic Lake Invite Skipper B 8 9.5 -0.24
The George Warren Smith '22 Trophy 2026 Skipper A 10 8.3 2.02
Spring 2026 Team page Season
Sunday Salve Invite Crew B 5 3.4 +0.53
Saturday Salve Invite Skipper B 7 5.0 1.63
RWU Team Race Skipper TR 10 10% —
Owen Trophy Skipper A 7 9.6 0.83
McMerrick Team Race Saturday Skipper TR 12 0% —
Central 4 FR Skipper A 3 6.0 0.76
Alymers Team race Skipper TR 9 78% —
Fall 2025 Team page Season
Terrier Invite Skipper A 4 8.2 0.53
Savin Hill Invite Crew A 8 11.5 -0.33
Oberg Trophy Skipper C 1 11.0 —
The Hood Trophy Skipper B 4 13.2 1.25
Hewitt Trophy Skipper B 12 9.5 1.53
Harman Cup Keelboat Crew A 3 6.7 —
BU Invite Skipper A 3 13.3 0.09
2025 Nicholas Barnett Trophy Skipper B 8 8.4 1.26

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →