| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Roger Williams University | Hawks | 10–0 |
| 2 |  |
Boston College | Eagles | 8–2 |
| 3 |  |
Brown University | Bears | 6–4 |
| 4 |  |
Bowdoin College | Polar Bears | 3–7 |
| 5 |  |
U. S. Coast Guard Academy | Bears | 2–8 |
| 6 |  |
Boston University | Terriers | 1–9 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 29,369 team race matches sailed before 2026-03-21, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 28 of 30 matches (93%) with a log-loss of 0.265 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.24 ± 0.33: a typical event, more orderly than 70% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roger Williams University | 9.46 | 12.46 | 10–0 | 8.3 | ≥+3.00 | 2.8 | 12% |
| 4 | Bowdoin College | 5.80 | 6.48 | 3–7 | 2.3 | +0.68 | 0.4 | 38% |
| 6 | Boston University | 4.53 | 4.82 | 1–9 | 0.8 | +0.29 | 0.0 | 59% |
| 2 | Boston College | 9.62 | 9.61 | 8–2 | 8.0 | −0.00 | 0.0 | 70% |
| 3 | Brown University | 8.88 | 8.04 | 6–4 | 7.0 | −0.84 | 0.6 | 93% |
| 5 | U. S. Coast Guard Academy | 6.62 | 4.97 | 2–8 | 3.7 | −1.66 | 2.0 | 99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Hawks | Eagles | Bears | Bears | Bears | Terriers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roger Williams University Hawks | 5–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| Boston College Eagles | 4–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Brown University Bears | 3–2 | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Bowdoin College Polar Bears | 1–4 | L | L | L | ✕ | L | W |
| U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears | 1–4 | L | L | L | W | ✕ | L |
| Boston University Terriers | 1–4 | L | L | L | L | W | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Hawks | Eagles | Bears | Bears | Bears | Terriers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roger Williams University Hawks | 5–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| Boston College Eagles | 4–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Brown University Bears | 3–2 | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Bowdoin College Polar Bears | 2–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears | 1–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Boston University Terriers | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Terriers | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Hawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Eagles | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Bears | 2-3-6 |
| 5 | |
Hawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Terriers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bears | 1-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Hawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Polar Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Terriers | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Hawks | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Eagles | 2-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Bears | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Terriers | 2-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Eagles | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Hawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Terriers | 3-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Bears | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Bears | 2-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Bears | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 2-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Terriers | 4-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Hawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Eagles | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Hawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Bears | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Terriers | 1-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Hawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Eagles | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Bears | 2-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Polar Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Terriers | 4-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Hawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Eagles | 4-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Polar Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 27 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Terriers | 3-4-6 |
| 28 | |
Eagles | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 2-4-6 |
| 29 | |
Hawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Terriers | 4-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-5 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Roger Williams University | Hawks | Bo Angus '29 Connor Mchugh '28 Jack Roman '26 Ludwik Grzelak '28 Reece Schwartz '29 |
Dominique Spinola '26 Maggie Fleming '27 Sophia Litos '29 Didier Schouten '29 |
|
Boston College | Eagles | Ian Hopkins Guerra '26 James O’Gwen '27 Tor Svendsen '27 |
Kylie Craig '28 Kennedy Laureigh '26 Madeline Torrey '28 |
|
Brown University | Bears | Emery Diemar '28 Leila Pfrang '29 Noah Stapleton '29 |
Kyoko Tonkin '29 Phoebe Hackett '28 Marin Soderberg '28 |
|
Bowdoin College | Polar Bears | Cole Amaral '28 Henry Ladd '29 Noah Reischmann '29 Owen Warren '28 |
Caroline O'Hara '29 Eve Cintron '29 Yasmine Nee '29 |
|
U. S. Coast Guard Academy | Bears | Ella Demand '28 Meara Conley '28 Tomas Riccio '28 |
Sydney Zylinski '29 Olivia Spada '28 Austin White '27 |
|
Boston University | Terriers | Graham Welsh '29 Harrison Stevens '26 Richard Kalich '26 |
Maya Burns '27 Saanvi Gupta '29 Danielle Bogacheva '27 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
