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Penobscot Bay Open

Analysis
# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Maine Maritime Academy Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 1 92
2 Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 191
3 Boston University Boston University Terriers 230
4 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 272
5 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 274
6 McGill University McGill University Redbirds 276
7 Maine Maritime Academy Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 2 310
8 Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 324
9 Bates College Bates College Bobcats 428
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT Sailors
Maine Maritime Academy Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 1 A 2 3 4 2 2 1 2 2 1 6 5 4 1 1 36 Finn Deprez '29
Sarah Zucker '30
Maine Maritime Academy Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 1 B 3 4 3 12 1 6 3 1 4 3 4 2 2 8 56 Toby Clarkson '29
Isabel Dickson '30
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats A 1 17 1 1 5 13 1 14 2 2 2 1 5 6 71 Linden White '30
Nathan Kluskiewicz '28
Boston University Boston University Terriers A 12 1 7 4 3 4 6 8 6 5 6 6 11 4 83 Buck Rathbun '28
Tim Nguyen '28
McGill University McGill University Redbirds A 4 7 6 7 8 9 10 5 5 8 10 7 3 3 92 Andrew Richards '28
Oscar Tesniere '28
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks B 6 9 10 5 4 5 4 7 3 17 3 9 8 2 92 Robert Heath '29 [1-14]
Emma Sharpe '28 [1-10]
Bridget Theisen '29 [11-14]
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks A 5 5 2 8 9 3 8 6 7 4 13 8 16 5 99 Jack Schneider '29 [1-4]
Sean Morrison '27 [5-14]
Bridget Theisen '29 [1-4]
Julia Overmyer '27 [5-8]
Lilly Dubovsky '27 [9-14]
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies B 9 16 5 3 6 2 7 4 11 10 12 12 9 13 119 Caeden Nodurft '29
Ellie Mccabe '29
Boston University Boston University Terriers B 16 15 14 6 7 16 5 3 9 9 7 10 12 18 147 Graham Welsh '29
Henry Gesing '29
Maine Maritime Academy Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 2 A 7 14 11 11 14 8 11 13 14 7 11 5 10 12 148 Perla Castro_Ramos '30 [1-14]
Ellie Sears '31 [1-8]
Jane Marvin '28 [9-14]
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers A 8 13 8 10 11 15 12 11 13 1 15 13 7 11 148 Luke Kenahan '27
Henry Steadman '28
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies A 14 2 9 9 10 10 17 16 OCS 12 1 3 14 17 153 Jack Whitman '27
Nikolas Alexander '30
Maine Maritime Academy Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 2 B 11 12 15 14 13 14 15 9 15 11 8 14 4 7 162 Bode Badger '30
Jocelyn Widrick '30
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers B 13 10 12 16 12 7 9 12 8 13 17 18 15 14 176 Kevin Mcneill '28
Joseph Gedraitis '27
McGill University McGill University Redbirds B 10 6 17 13 18 11 14 10 16 16 14 17 13 9 184 Felix Ho '29
Nayla Loutfi '28
Bates College Bates College Bobcats A OCS 8 13 17 16 18 13 18 10 14 9 16 6 16 193 Logan Ray '29
Cate Martin '29
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats B 15 11 16 15 15 12 16 17 17 15 16 11 17 10 203 Cole Norris '29
Emelyn Rudalavage '29
Bates College Bates College Bobcats B 17 18 18 18 17 17 18 15 12 18 18 15 RAF 15 235 Richard Nesti '30
Sophia Rubel '29
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2013 (15 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A14A
Bates CollegeBates College Bobcats11223344556677
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers22334455667788
Maine Maritime AcademyMaine Maritime Academy Mariners 133445566778899
Maine Maritime AcademyMaine Maritime Academy Mariners 24455667788991010
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers556677889910101111
McGill UniversityMcGill University Redbirds66778899101011111212
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats99101011111212131314141515
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies7788991010111112121313
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks889910101111121213131414

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B13B14B
Bates CollegeBates College Bobcats1010111112121313141415151616
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers1111121213131414151516161717
Maine Maritime AcademyMaine Maritime Academy Mariners 11212131314141515161617171818
Maine Maritime AcademyMaine Maritime Academy Mariners 213131414151516161717181811
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers141415151616171718181122
McGill UniversityMcGill University Redbirds1515161617171818112233
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats1818112233445566
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies16161717181811223344
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks171718181122334455

Conditions — 09/12/2026 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 56%  ·  Pressure 1020.5 hPa

Temperature

64°F
↑ 68°F   ↓ 55°F
Feels like 61°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.5 kn
avg  ·  max 8.7 kn
Gusts to 19.8 kn
From SSW (211°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover32% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity56% Pressure1020.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 12 kn · S 10 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Maine Maritime: an underdogs’ day (−0.08)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.00 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.07
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.07 ± 0.12)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Maine Maritime by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (15 labelled days at Maine Maritime).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →