| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Brown University | Bears | 8–0 |
| 2 |  |
Boston University | Terriers | 7–2 |
| 3 |  |
Roger Williams University | Hawks | 6–3 |
| 4 |  |
Babson College | Beaver | 6–3 |
| 5 |  |
Massachusetts Maritime Academy | Buccaneers | 5–4 |
| 6 |  |
McGill University | Redbirds | 3–5 |
| 7 |  |
Bentley University | Falcons | 2–6 |
| 8 |  |
University of Massachusetts at Amherst | Minutemen | 1–7 |
| 9 |  |
Salve Regina University | Seahawks | 0–8 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 31,020 team race matches sailed before 2026-04-12, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 30 of 38 matches (79%) with a log-loss of 0.404 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.14 ± 0.31: a typical event, more orderly than 59% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brown University | 6.12 | 9.12 | 8–0 | 6.9 | ≥+3.00 | 1.9 | 24% |
| 4 | Babson College | 3.16 | 5.13 | 6–3 | 3.1 | +1.97 | 4.1 | 2% |
| 2 | Boston University | 4.64 | 5.87 | 7–2 | 5.4 | +1.23 | 1.4 | 17% |
| 6 | McGill University | 3.19 | 3.10 | 3–5 | 3.1 | −0.10 | 0.0 | 71% |
| 7 | Bentley University | 2.71 | 2.46 | 2–6 | 2.3 | −0.25 | 0.1 | 76% |
| 5 | Massachusetts Maritime Academy | 4.45 | 3.91 | 5–4 | 5.8 | −0.54 | 0.3 | 87% |
| 8 | University of Massachusetts at Amherst | 2.10 | 1.49 | 1–7 | 1.6 | −0.61 | 0.2 | 85% |
| 3 | Roger Williams University | 6.19 | 4.77 | 6–3 | 7.7 | −1.42 | 1.9 | 98% |
| 9 | Salve Regina University | 2.50 | -0.50 | 0–8 | 2.1 | ≤−3.00 | 3.7 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Bears | Terriers | Hawks | Beaver | Buccaneers | Redbirds | Falcons | Minutemen | Seahawks | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brown University Bears | 8–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| Boston University Terriers | 6–2 | L | ✕ | W | W | L | W | W | W | W |
| Roger Williams University Hawks | 6–2 | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| Babson College Beaver | 5–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers | 5–3 | L | W | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| McGill University Redbirds | 3–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Bentley University Falcons | 2–6 | L | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen | 1–7 | L | L | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Salve Regina University Seahawks | 0–8 | L | L | L | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Terriers | Hawks | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston University Terriers | 1–0 | ✕ | W |
| Roger Williams University Hawks | 0–1 | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Beaver | Buccaneers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Babson College Beaver | 1–0 | ✕ | W |
| Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers | 0–1 | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Terriers | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Redbirds | 2-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Bears | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Buccaneers | 2-3-6 |
| 3 | |
Hawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Beaver | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahawks | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Terriers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Minutemen | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Redbirds | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Buccaneers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Hawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Beaver | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Minutemen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Bears | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Terriers | 2-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Redbirds | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Beaver | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Buccaneers | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Hawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Minutemen | 3-4-5 |
| 15 | |
Terriers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Beaver | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Redbirds | 1-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Buccaneers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-5 |
| 18 | |
Hawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Minutemen | 4-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Terriers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Beaver | 3-4-6 |
| 21 | |
Redbirds | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-5 |
| 22 | |
Hawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Buccaneers | 4-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Falcons | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Minutemen | 1-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Beaver | 3-4-6 |
| 25 | |
Terriers | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 2-4-6 |
| 26 | |
Hawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Redbirds | 3-4-5 |
| 27 | |
Buccaneers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Minutemen | 3-4-5 |
| 28 | |
Beaver | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-6 |
| 29 | |
Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Terriers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hawks | 3-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Buccaneers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Redbirds | 2-3-6 |
| 32 | |
Beaver | 1-2-6 DNF | def. | |
Minutemen | 3-4-5 |
| 33 | |
Falcons | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 2-4-6 |
| 34 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hawks | 3-4-6 |
| 35 | |
Buccaneers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Terriers | 3-4-6 |
| 36 | |
Redbirds | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Minutemen | 3-5-6 |
| 37 | |
Terriers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Hawks | 2-3-6 |
| 38 | |
Beaver | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Buccaneers | 1-5-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
