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Thompson Trophy Camel

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 14–4
2 Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 12–6
3 Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 11–7
4 Brown University Brown University Bears 10–8
5 Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 9–9
6 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 7–11
7 Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 0–18

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 27,404 team race matches sailed before 2025-04-12, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 45 of 63 matches (71%) with a log-loss of 0.528 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.20 ± 0.24: a typical event, more orderly than 24% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Yale University
Bulldogs		211.86
school +0.29		Jack Egan / Nathan Sih 4.21
Stephan Baker / Ashley Highland 4.31
Alex Adams / Annabel Woodworth 3.03		71%14–4 (78%)+1.2
2Dartmouth College
Big Green		411.19
school +0.32		William Michels / Reese Bragg 3.61
Ryan Satterberg / Madeline Koelbel 3.58
Chase Decker / Phoebe Lee 3.69 11–4
Chase Decker / Will Eggena 3.56 1–2		56%12–6 (67%)+1.9
3Stanford University
Cardinal		112.45
school +0.33		Vanessa Lahrkamp / Kit Harned 4.27
Thomas Sitzmann / Ashtyn Tierney 4.10
Reade Decker / Piper Blackband 3.73		83%11–7 (61%)−3.9
4Brown University
Bears		311.35
school +0.38		Guthrie Braun / Emily Mueller 3.88 7–8
Blake Behrens / Caroline Keeffe-Jones 3.65 6–6
Leyton Borcherding / Helen Horangic 3.48 6–6
Blake Behrens / Cam Spriggs 3.64 4–2
Leyton Borcherding / Caroline Keeffe-Jones 3.36 4–2
Guthrie Braun / Reese Corckran 3.83 3–0		60%10–8 (56%)−0.9
5Bowdoin College
Polar Bears		610.18Sam Bonauto / Timmy Gee 3.43
Thibault Antonietti / Holliss Hirsch 3.40
Thomas Hall / Elizabeth Wire 3.57 5–4
Michelangelo Vecchio / Elizabeth Wire 2.89 3–3
Thomas Hall / Kique Ruiz 3.59 1–2		34%9–9 (50%)+2.8
6Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Engineers		510.18
school +0.21		Sam Bruce / Ryan Hoffman 3.77
Julius Heitkoetter / Yitian Zhu 3.18 3–9
William Kulas / Ade Larsen 3.00 3–9
Julius Heitkoetter / Samantha Karlson 3.05 4–2
William Kulas / Lucas Escandon 3.11 4–2		37%7–11 (39%)+0.3
7Connecticut College
Camels		78.41
school +0.35, home +0.37		Henry Scholz / Andrew Selian 2.72 0–15
Skylor Sweet / Clifton Carragher 2.71 0–12
Izzy Wu-Karr / Alejandro Amezcua 2.11 0–12
William Hurd / Griffin Stead 2.52 0–6
Skylor Sweet / Alejandro Amezcua 2.73 0–3
William Hurd / Clifton Carragher 2.57 0–3
Skylor Sweet / Sophia Rey 2.69 0–3		7%0–18 (0%)−1.3

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
5Bowdoin College10.1811.049–96.2+0.861.89%
2Dartmouth College11.1911.7712–610.1+0.580.822%
1Yale University11.8612.2814–412.8+0.420.336%
6Massachusetts Institute of Technology10.1810.287–116.7+0.100.054%
4Brown University11.3511.0910–810.9−0.260.278%
3Stanford University12.4511.1011–715.0−1.354.1>99%
7Connecticut College8.415.410–181.3≤−3.001.9>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Michelangelo VecchioBowdoin College2.894.483–31.3+1.592.011%
Thibault AntoniettiBowdoin College3.404.269–96.2+0.861.89%
Alex AdamsYale University3.033.4414–412.8+0.420.336%
William HurdConnecticut College2.52-0.480–91.0≤−3.001.5>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Dartmouth CollegeConnecticut College95%
12Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyBrown University23%upset
13Stanford UniversityBowdoin College94%
14Yale UniversityConnecticut College97%
15Brown UniversityDartmouth College58%
16Bowdoin CollegeMassachusetts Institute of Technology39%upset
17Yale UniversityStanford University36%upset
18Brown UniversityConnecticut College93%
19Dartmouth CollegeBowdoin College69%
110Stanford UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology91%
111Brown UniversityYale University36%upset
112Bowdoin CollegeConnecticut College85%
113Dartmouth CollegeStanford University23%upset
114Yale UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology84%
115Brown UniversityBowdoin College73%
116Stanford UniversityConnecticut College98%
117Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyDartmouth College26%upset
118Yale UniversityBowdoin College81%
119Stanford UniversityBrown University74%
120Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyConnecticut College89%
121Yale UniversityDartmouth College66%
222Dartmouth CollegeConnecticut College95%
223Brown UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology77%
224Bowdoin CollegeStanford University6%upset
225Yale UniversityConnecticut College97%
226Dartmouth CollegeBrown University42%upset
227Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyBowdoin College61%
228Yale UniversityStanford University36%upset
229Brown UniversityConnecticut College93%
230Dartmouth CollegeBowdoin College69%
231Stanford UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology90%
232Yale UniversityBrown University64%
233Bowdoin CollegeConnecticut College84%
234Dartmouth CollegeStanford University23%upset
235Yale UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology84%
236Bowdoin CollegeBrown University27%upset
237Stanford UniversityConnecticut College98%
238Dartmouth CollegeMassachusetts Institute of Technology74%
239Bowdoin CollegeYale University19%upset
240Stanford UniversityBrown University74%
241Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyConnecticut College88%
242Dartmouth CollegeYale University34%upset
343Dartmouth CollegeConnecticut College95%
344Brown UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology77%
345Stanford UniversityBowdoin College94%
346Yale UniversityConnecticut College97%
347Brown UniversityDartmouth College58%
348Bowdoin CollegeMassachusetts Institute of Technology38%upset
349Yale UniversityStanford University36%upset
350Brown UniversityConnecticut College92%
351Dartmouth CollegeBowdoin College69%
352Stanford UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology90%
353Yale UniversityBrown University64%
354Bowdoin CollegeConnecticut College84%
355Stanford UniversityDartmouth College77%
356Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyYale University16%upset
357Bowdoin CollegeBrown University27%upset
358Stanford UniversityConnecticut College98%
359Dartmouth CollegeMassachusetts Institute of Technology74%
360Yale UniversityBowdoin College81%
361Brown UniversityStanford University26%upset
362Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyConnecticut College88%
363Yale UniversityDartmouth College66%

Round 1

TeamRec.BulldogsGreenCardinalBearsBearsEngineersCamels
Yale University Bulldogs5–1✕WWLWWW
Dartmouth College Big Green3–3L✕WLWLW
Stanford University Cardinal4–2LL✕WWWW
Brown University Bears4–2WWL✕WLW
Bowdoin College Polar Bears2–4LLLL✕WW
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers3–3LWLWL✕W
Connecticut College Camels0–6LLLLLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.BulldogsGreenCardinalBearsBearsEngineersCamels
Yale University Bulldogs4–2✕LWWLWW
Dartmouth College Big Green6–0W✕WWWWW
Stanford University Cardinal3–3LL✕WLWW
Brown University Bears2–4LLL✕LWW
Bowdoin College Polar Bears4–2WLWW✕LW
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers2–4LLLLW✕W
Connecticut College Camels0–6LLLLLL✕

Round 3

TeamRec.BulldogsGreenCardinalBearsBearsEngineersCamels
Yale University Bulldogs5–1✕WWWWLW
Dartmouth College Big Green3–3L✕LLWWW
Stanford University Cardinal4–2LW✕LWWW
Brown University Bears4–2LWW✕LWW
Bowdoin College Polar Bears3–3LLLW✕WW
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers2–4WLLLL✕W
Connecticut College Camels0–6LLLLLL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Dartmouth College Big Green 1-2-5 def. Connecticut College Camels 3-4-6
2 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-3-6 def. Brown University Bears 2-4-5
3 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-4 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 3-5-6
4 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-5 def. Connecticut College Camels 3-4-6
5 Brown University Bears 1-3-4 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 2-5-6
6 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-2-4 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-5-6
7 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-3 def. Stanford University Cardinal 4-5-6
8 Brown University Bears 1-2-3 def. Connecticut College Camels 4-5-6
9 Dartmouth College Big Green 1-2-4 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 3-5-6
10 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 4-5-6
11 Brown University Bears 1-2-6 def. Yale University Bulldogs 3-4-5
12 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-2-5 def. Connecticut College Camels 3-4-6
13 Dartmouth College Big Green 1-2-6 def. Stanford University Cardinal 3-4-5
14 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-4 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-5-6
15 Brown University Bears 1-4-5 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2-3-6
16 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. Connecticut College Camels 4-5-6
17 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-5 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 3-4-6
18 Yale University Bulldogs 2-3-4 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-5-6
19 Stanford University Cardinal 1-3-4 def. Brown University Bears 2-5-6
20 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-5 def. Connecticut College Camels 3-4-6
21 Yale University Bulldogs 2-3-4 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 1-5-6
22 Dartmouth College Big Green 1-2-5 def. Connecticut College Camels 3-4-6
23 Brown University Bears 1-3-5 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2-4-6
24 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-3-6 def. Stanford University Cardinal 2-4-5
25 Yale University Bulldogs 2-3-4 def. Connecticut College Camels 1-5-6
26 Dartmouth College Big Green 1-2-6 def. Brown University Bears 3-4-5
27 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-6 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 3-4-5
28 Yale University Bulldogs 1-3-5 def. Stanford University Cardinal 2-4-6
29 Brown University Bears 1-2-5 def. Connecticut College Camels 3-4-6
30 Dartmouth College Big Green 2-3-4 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-5-6
31 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-5 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-4-6
32 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-5 def. Brown University Bears 3-4-6
33 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2-3-4 def. Connecticut College Camels 1-5-6
34 Dartmouth College Big Green 2-3-4 def. Stanford University Cardinal 1-5-6
35 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-5 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-4-6
36 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-2-5 def. Brown University Bears 3-4-6
37 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-5 def. Connecticut College Camels 3-4-6
38 Dartmouth College Big Green 2-3-4 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-5-6
39 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-3-5 def. Yale University Bulldogs 2-4-6
40 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-4 def. Brown University Bears 3-5-6
41 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-3-4 def. Connecticut College Camels 2-5-6
42 Dartmouth College Big Green 1-2-5 def. Yale University Bulldogs 3-4-6
43 Dartmouth College Big Green 1-2-6 def. Connecticut College Camels 3-4-5
44 Brown University Bears 1-2-6 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-4-5
45 Stanford University Cardinal 2-3-4 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-5-6
46 Yale University Bulldogs 2-3-5 def. Connecticut College Camels 1-4-6
47 Brown University Bears 1-2-5 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 3-4-6
48 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-2-6 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-4-5
49 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-4 def. Stanford University Cardinal 3-5-6
50 Brown University Bears 1-2-3 def. Connecticut College Camels 4-5-6
51 Dartmouth College Big Green 1-2-6 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 3-4-5
52 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-5 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-4-6
53 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-4 def. Brown University Bears 3-5-6
54 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-3-4 def. Connecticut College Camels 2-5-6
55 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-5 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 3-4-6
56 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-4 def. Yale University Bulldogs 3-5-6
57 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-2-6 def. Brown University Bears 3-4-5
58 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-4 def. Connecticut College Camels 3-5-6
59 Dartmouth College Big Green 2-3-5 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-4-6
60 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-5 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 3-4-6
61 Brown University Bears 1-2-4 def. Stanford University Cardinal 3-5-6
62 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-4 def. Connecticut College Camels 3-5-6
63 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-6 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 3-4-5

Conditions — 04/12/2025 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 80%  ·  Pressure 1013.6 hPa

Temperature

40°F
↑ 42°F   ↓ 35°F
Feels like 29°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
14.4 kn
avg  ·  max 17.0 kn
Gusts to 36.3 kn
From NE (35°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity80% Pressure1013.6 hPa Rain0.02 in

What this breeze does at Connecticut College — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 15 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Connecticut College in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.02)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Connecticut College by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (51 labelled fleet-race days at Connecticut College).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →