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Savin Hill Invite

Analysis
# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 21 10 31
2 Boston College Boston College Eagles 26 24 50
3 Brown University Brown University Bears 2 28 27 55
4 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 1 29 29 58
5 Webb Institute Webb Institute Clippers 22 45 67
6 Brown University Brown University Bears 1 30 37 67
7 Boston University Boston University Terriers 25 44 69
8 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 38 39 77
9 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 46 38 84
10 Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 50 41 91
11 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 43 53 96
12 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 2 54 47 101
13 Camels Camels Camels 55 48 103
14 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 58 47 105
15 Bates College Bates College Bobcats 76 76 152
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 1 6 7 4 3 21 Enzo Menditto '26
Vaughn Slatoff '26
Webb Institute Webb Institute Clippers 6 4 9 2 1 22 Calvin Schmid '26
Marc Leyk '28
Boston University Boston University Terriers 5 9 1 8 2 25 Elliott Mendenhall '25
Jack Cariaso '25
Boston College Boston College Eagles 4 5 12 1 4 26 Alex Lech '28
Damien Bocan '27
Brown University Brown University Bears 2 3 3 3 12 7 28 Sidney Moyer '27
Janelle Li '25
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 1 11 2 5 6 5 29 Connor Mchugh '28
Reid Nelson '27
Brown University Brown University Bears 1 12 1 4 7 6 30 Tyler Lamm '28
Reese Corckran '28
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 2 11 11 3 11 38 Gus Macaulay '27
Dory Russell '28
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 8 14 2 5 14 43 Carter Anderson '27
Lorelei Duarte '28
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 7 13 8 10 8 46 William Kulas '28
Lucas Escandon '26
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 10 7 10 11 12 50 Olivia Lowthian '25
Caelan Haddock '25
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 2 14 12 6 9 13 54 Caylin Schnoor '25
Dawson Chambers-Tartaglino '27
Camels Camels Camels 9 10 14 13 9 55
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 13 8 13 14 10 58 Kiana Beachy '28
Amelia Traver '28
Bates College Bates College Bobcats 15 15 15 15 DNF 76 Greta Shuster '25
Alice Maffie '27
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 4 2 1 2 1 10 Peter Barnard '27
Spencer Kriegstein '25
Boston College Boston College Eagles 1 5 13 3 2 24 Rogelio Casellas '28
Brendan Peary '27
Brown University Brown University Bears 2 3 7 4 6 7 27 Grace Ivancich '28
Marin Soderberg '28
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 1 6 12 2 5 4 29 Jakub Fuja '27
Dominique Spinola '26
Brown University Brown University Bears 1 7 4 3 13 10 37 Gabby Collins '28
Corinne Harrison '27
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 11 3 7 4 13 38 Karya Basaraner '28
Tamsin Horne '28
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 5 1 6 DNS 11 39 Devon Owen '27
Sarah Leary '28
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 10 11 10 1 9 41 Emil Tullberg '25
Kate Johnson '25
Boston University Boston University Terriers 14 8 8 9 5 44 Richard Kalich '26
Nicholas Thibodeau '26
Webb Institute Webb Institute Clippers 13 9 12 8 3 45 Everett Botwinick '26
Ty Mazzga '28
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 2 2 10 9 10 DNS 47 Jancy Grayson '28
Ruby Hope '25
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 8 13 11 7 8 47 Maria Skouloudi '27
Eloise Goedkoop '27
Camels Camels Camels 12 14 5 11 6 48
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 9 6 14 12 12 53 Sylvia Burns '26
Isabella Welch '25
Bates College Bates College Bobcats 15 DNF 15 14 DNF 76 Colin Kenny '28
Genevieve Gordon '28
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (7 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Bates CollegeBates College Bobcats11111
Boston CollegeBoston College Eagles22222
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers33333
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 144444
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 255555
CamelsCamels Camels66666
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas77777
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers88888
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies99999
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks 11010101010
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks 21111111111
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks1212121212
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 11313131313
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 21414141414
Webb InstituteWebb Institute Clippers1515151515

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B
Bates CollegeBates College Bobcats11111
Boston CollegeBoston College Eagles22222
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers33333
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 144444
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 255555
CamelsCamels Camels66666
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas77777
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers88888
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies99999
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks 11010101010
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks 21111111111
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks1212121212
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 11313131313
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 21414141414
Webb InstituteWebb Institute Clippers1515151515

Conditions — 10/12/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 38%  ·  Pressure 1008.7 hPa

Temperature

65°F
↑ 67°F   ↓ 60°F
Feels like 57°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
12.9 kn
avg  ·  max 14.8 kn
Gusts to 34.8 kn
From WNW (292°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover3% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity38% Pressure1008.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 15 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Boston College: a favourites’ day (+0.05)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.12 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.07
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.12 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Boston College by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (29 labelled days at Boston College).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →