| # | School | Sailor | TOT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Harvard University | Robby Meek '27 | 10 |
| 2 |  |
Tulane University | Hamilton Barclay '27 | 34 |
| 3 |  |
Stanford University | Thomas Sitzmann '27 | 40 |
| 4 |  |
College of Charleston | Benjamin Dufour '26 | 49 |
| 5 |  |
Georgetown University | Owen Kohut '29 | 52 |
| 6 |  |
Brown University | Guthrie Braun '26 | 53 |
| 7 |  |
Boston College | Jake Homberger '29 | 56 |
| 8 | |
Georgetown University | Peter Barnard '27 | 58 |
| 9 |  |
California Poly Maritime Academy | Nicholas Mueller '27 | 64 |
| 10 | |
College of Charleston | Will Rucker '28 | 68 |
| 11 |  |
Yale University | Mathias Reimer '27 | 71 |
| 12 | |
Tulane University | Tate Christopher '29 | 76 |
| 13 | |
College of Charleston | Thomas Kraak '28 | 80 |
| 14 |  |
Roger Williams University | Connor Mchugh '28 | 83 |
| 15 | |
Tulane University | Matheo Graham-Capasso '26 | 85 |
| 16 | |
Tulane University | Alejo Di Blasi '29 | 91 |
| 17 |  |
University of Hawaii | Erik Anderson '26 | 112 |
| 18 |  |
Hope College | Lucas Nykamp '29 | 116 |
Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.
Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.
The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.
| Fin | Skipper | School | Races | Rating before |
Perf. rating |
Δ | Percentile before → perf. |
Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
Avg finish actual / exp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robby Meek '27 | Harvard University | 7/7 | 4.59 | 8.28 | +3.69 | 99th → 99th | 14.1 | <1% | 1.4 / 7.0 |
| 2 | Hamilton Barclay '27 | Tulane University Green Wave 1 | 7/7 | 4.73 | 5.17 | +0.44 | 99th → 99th | 0.5 | 23% | 4.9 / 6.6 |
| 3 | Thomas Sitzmann '27 | Stanford University | 7/7 | 4.36 | 4.82 | +0.46 | 98th → 99th | 0.5 | 28% | 5.7 / 7.6 |
| 4 | Benjamin Dufour '26 | College of Charleston Cougars 1 | 7/7 | 4.15 | 5.25 | +1.11 | 97th → 99th | 2.2 | 35% | 7.0 / 8.1 |
| 5 | Owen Kohut '29 | Georgetown University Hoyas 2 | 7/7 | 3.37 | 4.18 | +0.80 | 89th → 97th | 1.5 | 14% | 7.4 / 10.2 |
| 6 | Guthrie Braun '26 | Brown University | 7/7 | 4.33 | 4.27 | −0.06 | 98th → 98th | 0.0 | 52% | 7.6 / 7.7 |
| 7 | Jake Homberger '29 | Boston College | 7/7 | 4.04 | 3.94 | −0.10 | 95th → 95th | 0.0 | 48% | 8.0 / 8.3 |
| 8 | Peter Barnard '27 | Georgetown University Hoyas 1 | 7/7 | 4.04 | 4.01 | −0.02 | 95th → 95th | 0.0 | 51% | 8.3 / 8.4 |
| 9 | Nicholas Mueller '27 | California Poly Maritime Academy | 7/7 | 3.91 | 3.69 | −0.22 | 95th → 93rd | 0.1 | 57% | 9.1 / 8.7 |
| 10 | Will Rucker '28 | College of Charleston Cougars 3 | 7/7 | 3.17 | 3.84 | +0.67 | 84th → 94th | 1.1 | 34% | 9.7 / 10.8 |
| 11 | Mathias Reimer '27 | Yale University | 7/7 | 3.76 | 3.65 | −0.11 | 93rd → 93rd | 0.0 | 67% | 10.1 / 9.2 |
| 12 | Tate Christopher '29 | Tulane University Green Wave 3 | 7/7 | 3.27 | 3.18 | −0.09 | 86th → 85th | 0.0 | 56% | 10.9 / 10.5 |
| 13 | Thomas Kraak '28 | College of Charleston Cougars 2 | 7/7 | 3.23u | 2.95 | −0.28 | 85th → 81st | 0.2 | 61% | 11.4 / 10.6 |
| 14 | Connor Mchugh '28 | Roger Williams University | 7/7 | 3.55 | 2.78 | −0.77 | 92nd → 75th | 1.6 | 81% | 11.9 / 9.7 |
| 15 | Matheo Graham-Capasso '26 | Tulane University Green Wave 4 | 7/7 | 2.62 | 2.98 | +0.36 | 69th → 81st | 0.3 | 48% | 12.1 / 12.1 |
| 16 | Alejo Di Blasi '29 | Tulane University Green Wave 2 | 7/7 | 2.73 | 2.65 | −0.08 | 73rd → 70th | 0.0 | 64% | 13.0 / 11.9 |
| 17 | Erik Anderson '26 | University of Hawaii | 7/7 | 2.86 | 1.41 | −1.46 | 78th → 34th | 4.8 | 98% | 16.0 / 11.6 |
| 18 | Lucas Nykamp '29 | Hope College | 7/7 | 2.63 | 1.77 | −0.86 | 69th → 43rd | 2.1 | 97% | 16.6 / 12.0 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
