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Montotype Trophy - NEISA Open Singlehanded Champs

# SchoolSailor TOT
1 Harvard University Harvard University Robby Meek '27 18
2 Yale University Yale University Mathias Reimer '27 39
3 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Nicholas Reeser '25 49
4 Brown University Brown University Julian Dahiya '28 59
5 Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Michelangelo Vecchio '27 63
6 Brown University Brown University Guthrie Braun '26 81
7 Brown University Brown University Martins Atilla '27 84
8 Yale University Yale University Morgan Pinckney '27 88
9 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Benjamin Reeser '28 88
10 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Norman Cartwright '28 92
11 Tufts University Tufts University Devon Owen '27 100
12 Connecticut College Connecticut College Duncan Craine '26 103
13 Harvard University Harvard University Harrison Strom '28 106
14 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Connor Mchugh '28 107
15 Boston College Boston College Tor Svendsen '27 112
16 Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Ben Sheppard '27 115
17 Yale University Yale University Alex Adams '26 115
18 Brown University Brown University Charles Gish '28 121
19 Tufts University Tufts University Brayden Benesch '28 130
20 Tufts University Tufts University Wyatt Bischoff '27 131
21 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Mathieu Dale '25 133
22 Tufts University Tufts University Gus Macaulay '27 134
23 Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Cole Amaral '28 137
24 Connecticut College Connecticut College Henry Scholz '27 141
25 Brown University Brown University Leyton Borcherding '25 144
26 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Tristan Mcdonald '28 150
27 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Kyle Pfrang '26 157
28 Northeastern University Northeastern University Tyler Meadows '25 158
29 Connecticut College Connecticut College Jake Demos '27 161
30 McGill University McGill University Mikhail Lavrenov '26 175
31 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Lucas Wiatrowski '27 210
32 Boston University Boston University John Cabell '26 213
33 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire James Frady '28 222
34 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Willem Weinberg '24 230
SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT
Harvard University Harvard University Robby Meek '27 8 1 1 3 1 3 1 18
Yale University Yale University Mathias Reimer '27 2 6 2 4 14 8 3 39
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Nicholas Reeser '25 6 2 7 2 17 11 4 49
Brown University Brown University Julian Dahiya '28 4 10 12 9 11 5 8 59
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Michelangelo Vecchio '27 5 30 4 1 5 1 17 63
Brown University Brown University Guthrie Braun '26 16 17 8 19 12 4 5 81
Brown University Brown University Martins Atilla '27 1 15 9 16 16 18 9 84
Yale University Yale University Morgan Pinckney '27 15 5 5 12 21 7 23 88
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Benjamin Reeser '28 29 3 17 18 2 17 2 88
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Norman Cartwright '28 19 20 6 13 3 19 12 92
Tufts University Tufts University Devon Owen '27 22 4 22 20 8 10 14 100
Connecticut College Connecticut College Duncan Craine '26 3 24 13 14 10 24 15 103
Harvard University Harvard University Harrison Strom '28 21 12 16 10 30 6 11 106
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Connor Mchugh '28 12 7 27 7 22 12 20 107
Boston College Boston College Tor Svendsen '27 13 9 18 6 33 26 7 112
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Ben Sheppard '27 7 21 23 29 6 16 13 115
Yale University Yale University Alex Adams '26 33 8 10 8 18 28 10 115
Brown University Brown University Charles Gish '28 20 16 15 26 23 15 6 121
Tufts University Tufts University Brayden Benesch '28 27 18 3 11 19 23 29 130
Tufts University Tufts University Wyatt Bischoff '27 11 13 14 23 27 22 21 131
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Mathieu Dale '25 25 14 19 25 29 2 19 133
Tufts University Tufts University Gus Macaulay '27 10 23 20 21 9 21 30 134
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Cole Amaral '28 18 19 21 17 26 14 22 137
Connecticut College Connecticut College Henry Scholz '27 23 11 25 27 24 13 18 141
Brown University Brown University Leyton Borcherding '25 24 22 28 24 13 9 24 144
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Tristan Mcdonald '28 9 27 26 22 15 20 31 150
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Kyle Pfrang '26 26 31 11 28 20 25 16 157
Northeastern University Northeastern University Tyler Meadows '25 30 29 30 5 7 29 28 158
Connecticut College Connecticut College Jake Demos '27 14 25 24 15 28 30 25 161
McGill University McGill University Mikhail Lavrenov '26 28 28 31 30 4 27 27 175
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Lucas Wiatrowski '27 17 33 29 34 31 34 32 210
Boston University Boston University John Cabell '26 31 26 32 31 34 33 26 213
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire James Frady '28 32 34 33 33 25 32 33 222
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Willem Weinberg '24 DNS 32 34 32 32 31 34 230

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A  34 boats · 7 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Robby Meek '27Harvard University Crimson 17/74.456.56+2.1199th → 99th7.10%2.6 / 9.2
2Mathias Reimer '27Yale University Bulldogs 17/73.665.16+1.5093rd → 99th4.63%5.6 / 12.6
3Nicholas Reeser '25U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 17/74.244.68+0.4498th → 99th0.522%7.0 / 10.0
4Julian Dahiya '28Brown University Bears 17/72.654.51+1.8670th → 99th6.81%8.4 / 17.6
5Michelangelo Vecchio '27Bowdoin College Polar Bears 17/73.063.50+0.4583rd → 90th0.511%9.0 / 15.6
6Guthrie Braun '26Brown University Bears 27/73.993.81−0.1995th → 94th0.158%11.6 / 11.2
7Martins Atilla '27Brown University Bears 37/73.563.75+0.1992nd → 93rd0.145%12.0 / 13.2
8Benjamin Reeser '28U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 27/72.773.24+0.4774th → 85th0.623%12.6 / 16.9
8Morgan Pinckney '27Yale University Bulldogs 37/73.153.58+0.4384th → 92nd0.531%12.6 / 15.1
10Norman Cartwright '28Roger Williams University Hawks 27/72.84u3.54+0.7078th → 92nd1.228%13.1 / 16.6
11Devon Owen '27Tufts University Jumbos 27/73.163.38+0.2384th → 89th0.144%14.3 / 15.1
12Duncan Craine '26Connecticut College Camels 17/72.343.21+0.8760th → 85th1.923%14.7 / 19.0
13Harrison Strom '28Harvard University Crimson 27/72.863.10+0.2478th → 84th0.240%15.1 / 16.6
14Connor Mchugh '28Roger Williams University Hawks 57/73.343.12−0.2289th → 84th0.262%15.3 / 14.2
15Tor Svendsen '27Boston College7/72.722.45−0.2772nd → 62nd0.240%16.0 / 17.2
16Alex Adams '26Yale University Bulldogs 27/72.562.03−0.5367th → 53rd0.736%16.4 / 18.1
16Ben Sheppard '27Dartmouth College7/72.962.88−0.0881st → 78th0.054%16.4 / 16.2
18Charles Gish '28Brown University Bears 47/72.863.05+0.2078th → 83rd0.157%17.3 / 16.5
19Brayden Benesch '28Tufts University Jumbos 17/72.322.57+0.2560th → 67th0.245%18.6 / 19.2
20Wyatt Bischoff '27Tufts University Jumbos 47/72.742.84+0.1073rd → 77th0.065%18.7 / 17.1
21Mathieu Dale '25Roger Williams University Hawks 17/73.492.62−0.8790th → 69th2.889%19.0 / 13.5
22Gus Macaulay '27Tufts University Jumbos 37/71.812.60+0.8044th → 68th1.633%19.1 / 21.5
23Cole Amaral '28Bowdoin College Polar Bears 27/72.392.85+0.4661st → 78th0.655%19.6 / 18.8
24Henry Scholz '27Connecticut College Camels 37/72.852.68−0.1778th → 71st0.179%20.1 / 16.5
25Leyton Borcherding '25Brown University Bears 57/73.432.47−0.9689th → 62nd3.494%20.6 / 13.8
26Tristan Mcdonald '28Roger Williams University Hawks 47/73.092.11−0.9983rd → 55th3.492%21.4 / 15.3
27Kyle Pfrang '26Roger Williams University Hawks 37/73.002.08−0.9282nd → 54th3.089%22.4 / 15.9
28Tyler Meadows '25Northeastern University7/71.251.78+0.5429th → 44th0.737%22.6 / 23.9
29Jake Demos '27Connecticut College Camels 27/71.272.14+0.8630th → 56th1.841%23.0 / 23.8
30Mikhail Lavrenov '26McGill University7/71.361.67+0.3132nd → 41st0.359%25.0 / 23.5
31Lucas Wiatrowski '27University of New Hampshire Wildcats 27/70.510.18−0.3314th → 9th0.276%30.0 / 26.8
32John Cabell '26Boston University7/71.440.55−0.8935th → 15th2.394%30.4 / 23.1
33James Frady '28University of New Hampshire Wildcats 17/70.640.12−0.5217th → 8th0.791%31.7 / 26.4
34Willem Weinberg '24University of Rhode Island7/71.02-0.19−1.2123rd → 4th3.199%32.9 / 24.9

Conditions — 09/14/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 60%  ·  Pressure 1024.5 hPa

Temperature

76°F
↑ 81°F   ↓ 64°F
Feels like 78°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.8 kn
avg  ·  max 6.1 kn
Gusts to 14.2 kn
From NNE (33°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover18% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity60% Pressure1024.5 hPa

What this breeze does at Brown — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Brown in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.06)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Brown by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (78 labelled fleet-race days at Brown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →