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Nelson Roltsch Team Race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 10–0
2 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 7–3
3 College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars 6–4
4 Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 5–5
5 University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes 2–8
6 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 0–10

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 28,305 team race matches sailed before 2026-02-28, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 27 of 30 matches (90%) with a log-loss of 0.214 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.36 ± 0.41: a typical event, more orderly than 81% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Stanford University
Cardinal		112.37
school +0.26		Reade Decker / Callie Hammond 3.68
Vanessa Lahrkamp / Piper Blackband 4.22
Thomas Sitzmann / Abby Baird 4.21		85%10–0 (100%)+1.5
2U. S. Naval Academy
Midshipmen		211.63
school +0.18		Nathan Smith / Ellie Alex 3.99
Henry Allgeier / Fiona Cullen 3.76
Jack Welburn / Darby Graham 3.69		72%7–3 (70%)−0.2
3College of Charleston
Cougars		410.66
school +0.32		Benjamin Dufour / Clara Murphy 3.82
Charlie Allen / Malia Deane 3.28
Jonnie Ciffolillo / Belle Placa 3.21		53%6–4 (60%)+0.7
4Tulane University
Green Wave		311.40
school −0.06, home +0.36		Tate Christopher / Hope Breslin
Christian Ebbin / Sabrina Anderson 3.66
Hamilton Barclay / Taylor Bartell 3.85		67%5–5 (50%)−1.7
5University of Miami
Hurricanes		58.18
school +0.21		William Stratton / Lanee Imperato
Steven Hardee / Arantxa Argibay 3.43
David Webb / Gizela Kohan 2.10		23%2–8 (20%)−0.3
6University of Wisconsin
Badgers		62.90
school −0.26		Ryan Tatelbaum / Carter Harms 1.19
Nigel Yu / Claire Poremba 1.27
Claudia Kroll / Jenna Princing		0%0–10 (0%)−0.0

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1Stanford University12.3715.3710–08.5≥+3.002.417%
3College of Charleston10.6611.156–45.3+0.500.242%
2U. S. Naval Academy11.6311.527–37.1−0.110.071%
4Tulane University11.4010.095–56.7−1.311.697%
5University of Miami8.186.432–82.3−1.750.399%
6University of Wisconsin2.90-0.100–100.0≤−3.000.0>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Reade DeckerStanford University3.686.6810–08.5≥+3.002.417%
Vanessa LahrkampStanford University4.227.2210–08.5≥+3.002.417%
Thomas SitzmannStanford University4.217.2110–08.5≥+3.002.417%
Benjamin DufourCollege of Charleston3.824.326–45.3+0.500.242%
Charlie AllenCollege of Charleston3.283.776–45.3+0.500.242%
Jonnie CiffolilloCollege of Charleston3.213.706–45.3+0.500.242%
Nathan SmithU. S. Naval Academy3.993.887–37.1−0.110.071%
Henry AllgeierU. S. Naval Academy3.763.667–37.1−0.110.071%
Jack WelburnU. S. Naval Academy3.693.587–37.1−0.110.071%
Tate ChristopherTulane University3.572.265–56.7−1.311.697%
Christian EbbinTulane University3.662.355–56.7−1.311.697%
Hamilton BarclayTulane University3.852.545–56.7−1.311.697%
William StrattonUniversity of Miami2.250.502–82.3−1.750.399%
Steven HardeeUniversity of Miami3.431.672–82.3−1.750.399%
David WebbUniversity of Miami2.100.342–82.3−1.750.399%
Ryan TatelbaumUniversity of Wisconsin1.19-1.810–100.0≤−3.000.0>99%
Nigel YuUniversity of Wisconsin1.27-1.730–100.0≤−3.000.0>99%
Claudia KrollUniversity of Wisconsin0.63-2.370–100.0≤−3.000.0>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Stanford UniversityU. S. Naval Academy68%
12College of CharlestonTulane University32%upset
13University of MiamiUniversity of Wisconsin99%
14Stanford UniversityCollege of Charleston85%
15U. S. Naval AcademyUniversity of Wisconsin100%
16Tulane UniversityUniversity of Miami96%
17Stanford UniversityUniversity of Wisconsin100%
18College of CharlestonUniversity of Miami93%
19Tulane UniversityU. S. Naval Academy44%upset
110College of CharlestonUniversity of Wisconsin100%
111U. S. Naval AcademyUniversity of Miami97%
112Stanford UniversityTulane University73%
113U. S. Naval AcademyCollege of Charleston73%
114Tulane UniversityUniversity of Wisconsin100%
115Stanford UniversityUniversity of Miami98%
216Stanford UniversityTulane University73%
217U. S. Naval AcademyUniversity of Miami97%
218College of CharlestonUniversity of Wisconsin100%
219U. S. Naval AcademyTulane University56%
220Stanford UniversityCollege of Charleston85%
221University of MiamiUniversity of Wisconsin100%
222College of CharlestonTulane University32%upset
223U. S. Naval AcademyUniversity of Wisconsin100%
224Stanford UniversityUniversity of Miami98%
225U. S. Naval AcademyCollege of Charleston72%
226Stanford UniversityUniversity of Wisconsin100%
227Tulane UniversityUniversity of Miami96%
228Stanford UniversityU. S. Naval Academy68%
229College of CharlestonUniversity of Miami92%
230Tulane UniversityUniversity of Wisconsin100%

Round 1

TeamRec.CardinalMidshipmenCougarsWaveHurricanesBadgers
Stanford University Cardinal5–0✕WWWWW
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen3–2L✕WLWW
College of Charleston Cougars3–2LL✕WWW
Tulane University Green Wave3–2LWL✕WW
University of Miami Hurricanes1–4LLLL✕W
University of Wisconsin Badgers0–5LLLLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.CardinalMidshipmenCougarsWaveHurricanesBadgers
Stanford University Cardinal5–0✕WWWWW
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen4–1L✕WWWW
College of Charleston Cougars3–2LL✕WWW
Tulane University Green Wave2–3LLL✕WW
University of Miami Hurricanes1–4LLLL✕W
University of Wisconsin Badgers0–5LLLLL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Stanford University Cardinal 2-3-4 def. U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-5-6
2 College of Charleston Cougars 2-3-4 def. Tulane University Green Wave 1-5-6
3 University of Miami Hurricanes 1-2-3 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 4-5-6
4 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-5 def. College of Charleston Cougars 3-4-6
5 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-3 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 4-5-6
6 Tulane University Green Wave 1-3-6 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 2-4-5
7 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 4-5-6
8 College of Charleston Cougars 1-2-6 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 3-4-5
9 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-5 def. U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3-4-6
10 College of Charleston Cougars 1-2-3 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 4-5-6
11 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-4 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 3-5-6
12 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-6 def. Tulane University Green Wave 3-4-5
13 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-5 def. College of Charleston Cougars 3-4-6
14 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-3 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 4-5-6
15 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 4-5-6
16 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-4 def. Tulane University Green Wave 3-5-6
17 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-3-6 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 2-4-5
18 College of Charleston Cougars 1-2-4 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 3-5-6
19 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-3-4 def. Tulane University Green Wave 2-5-6
20 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-5 def. College of Charleston Cougars 3-4-6
21 University of Miami Hurricanes 1-2-4 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 3-5-6
22 College of Charleston Cougars 2-3-4 def. Tulane University Green Wave 1-5-6
23 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-3 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 4-5-6 DNF
24 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-4 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 3-5-6
25 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-4 def. College of Charleston Cougars 3-5-6
26 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 4-5-6
27 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-5 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 3-4-6
28 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-5 def. U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3-4-6
29 College of Charleston Cougars 1-2-5 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 3-4-6
30 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-3 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 4-5-6

Conditions — 02/28/2026 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 68%  ·  Pressure 1017.7 hPa

Temperature

68°F
↑ 73°F   ↓ 58°F
Feels like 69°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.4 kn
avg  ·  max 4.6 kn
Gusts to 11.7 kn
From ENE (65°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover34% Sunshine8.1 hrs Humidity68% Pressure1017.7 hPa

What this breeze does at Tulane — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Tulane in this breeze: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.10)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 9% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tulane by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (38 labelled fleet-race days at Tulane).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →