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Jeremy McIntyre Team Race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 14–1
2 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 11–4
3 California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 3–12
4 University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 2–13

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 16,026 team race matches sailed before 2022-02-26, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 27 of 30 matches (90%) with a log-loss of 0.210 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.09 ± 0.38: a typical event, more orderly than 52% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Stanford University
Cardinal		111.15
school +0.42, home +0.34		Jack Parkin / Sammy Pickell 3.89
Wiley Rogers / Anaclare Sole 3.45
Justin Lim / Mathew Hogan 3.02		95%14–1 (93%)−0.3
2University of California at Santa Barbara
Gauchos		29.29
school −0.19		David Eastwood / Sydney Aguirre 3.34
Chris Kayda / Kyla Murphy 3.12
Sidney Gathrid / Julia Roudebush 2.99		70%11–4 (73%)+0.5
3California Maritime Academy
Keelhaulers		35.45
school +0.21		Jacob Fisker-Andersen / Safari Frisell 2.65
Etienne Quille / Madeline Rivera
Charles Bedford / Garrett Wymer		18%3–12 (20%)+0.2
4University of California at Berkeley
Bears		45.35Will Cornell / Beck Boyea 2.23
Katherine Olsen / Mackenzie Berwick 1.65
Nate Ingebritson / Jessica Stewart 1.29		16%2–13 (13%)−0.5

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
2University of California at Santa Barbara9.299.9011–410.5+0.610.244%
3California Maritime Academy5.455.623–122.8+0.170.059%
4University of California at Berkeley5.355.002–132.5−0.350.179%
1Stanford University11.1510.7414–114.3−0.410.185%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Sidney GathridUniversity of California at Santa Barbara2.993.6011–410.5+0.610.244%
Jacob Fisker-AndersenCalifornia Maritime Academy2.652.813–122.8+0.170.059%
Charles BedfordCalifornia Maritime Academy1.421.593–122.8+0.170.059%
Katherine OlsenUniversity of California at Berkeley1.651.302–132.5−0.350.179%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Stanford UniversityCalifornia Maritime Academy100%
12University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Berkeley98%
13University of California at Santa BarbaraCalifornia Maritime Academy98%
14Stanford UniversityUniversity of California at Berkeley100%
15University of California at Santa BarbaraStanford University13%upset
16California Maritime AcademyUniversity of California at Berkeley51%
27Stanford UniversityCalifornia Maritime Academy100%
28University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Berkeley98%
29University of California at Santa BarbaraCalifornia Maritime Academy98%
210Stanford UniversityUniversity of California at Berkeley100%
211Stanford UniversityUniversity of California at Santa Barbara87%
212California Maritime AcademyUniversity of California at Berkeley53%
313Stanford UniversityCalifornia Maritime Academy100%
314University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Berkeley98%
315University of California at Santa BarbaraCalifornia Maritime Academy98%
316Stanford UniversityUniversity of California at Berkeley100%
317Stanford UniversityUniversity of California at Santa Barbara87%
318California Maritime AcademyUniversity of California at Berkeley53%
419Stanford UniversityCalifornia Maritime Academy100%
420University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Berkeley98%
421Stanford UniversityUniversity of California at Berkeley100%
422University of California at Santa BarbaraCalifornia Maritime Academy98%
423University of California at BerkeleyCalifornia Maritime Academy46%upset
424Stanford UniversityUniversity of California at Santa Barbara87%
525Stanford UniversityCalifornia Maritime Academy100%
526University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Berkeley98%
527Stanford UniversityUniversity of California at Berkeley100%
528University of California at Santa BarbaraCalifornia Maritime Academy98%
529University of California at BerkeleyCalifornia Maritime Academy46%upset
530Stanford UniversityUniversity of California at Santa Barbara87%

Round 1

TeamRec.CardinalGauchosKeelhaulersBears
Stanford University Cardinal2–1✕LWW
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos3–0W✕WW
California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers1–2LL✕W
University of California at Berkeley Bears0–3LLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.CardinalGauchosKeelhaulersBears
Stanford University Cardinal3–0✕WWW
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos2–1L✕WW
California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers1–2LL✕W
University of California at Berkeley Bears0–3LLL✕

Round 3

TeamRec.CardinalGauchosKeelhaulersBears
Stanford University Cardinal3–0✕WWW
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos2–1L✕WW
California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers1–2LL✕W
University of California at Berkeley Bears0–3LLL✕

Round 4

TeamRec.CardinalGauchosKeelhaulersBears
Stanford University Cardinal3–0✕WWW
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos2–1L✕WW
California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers0–3LL✕L
University of California at Berkeley Bears1–2LLW✕

Round 5

TeamRec.CardinalGauchosKeelhaulersBears
Stanford University Cardinal3–0✕WWW
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos2–1L✕WW
California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers0–3LL✕L
University of California at Berkeley Bears1–2LLW✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 4-5-6
2 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-6 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 3-4-5
3 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-4 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 3-5-6
4 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-4 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 3-5-6
5 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2-3-4 def. Stanford University Cardinal 1-5-6
6 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-3-4 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 2-5-6
7 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 4-5-6
8 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-3 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 4-5-6
9 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-3 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 4-5-6
10 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 4-5-6
11 Stanford University Cardinal 2-3-4 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-5-6
12 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 2-3-5 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 1-4-6
13 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 4-5-6
14 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-3 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 4-5-6
15 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-3 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 4-5-6
16 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-5 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 3-4-6
17 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 4-5-6
18 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-2-3 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 4-5-6
19 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-4 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 3-5-6
20 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-3 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 4-5-6
21 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 4-5-6
22 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-5 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 3-4-6
23 University of California at Berkeley Bears 1-2-6 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 3-4-5
24 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-6 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3-4-5
25 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 4-5-6
26 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-3 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 4-5-6
27 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-4 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 3-5-6
28 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-3 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 4-5-6
29 University of California at Berkeley Bears 1-2-4 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 3-5-6
30 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-5 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3-4-6

Conditions — 02/26/2022 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 48%  ·  Pressure 1027.6 hPa

Temperature

54°F
↑ 60°F   ↓ 39°F
Feels like 50°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
2.6 kn
avg  ·  max 3.5 kn
Gusts to 10.7 kn
From NNE (32°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine8.0 hrs Humidity48% Pressure1027.6 hPa

What this breeze does at Stanford — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Stanford in this breeze: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.13)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.13 means a rating gap counts about 11% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Stanford by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (48 labelled fleet-race days at Stanford).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →