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All-State Sugar Bowl

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 254
2 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 358
3 University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 416
4 Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 488
5 Georgia Institute of Technology Georgia Institute of Technology Yellow Jackets 781
6 North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack 781
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 R15 R16 R17 R18 TOT Sailors
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal B 1 1 4 1 6 1 2 1 5 3 2 2 1 2 2 1 1 9 45 Wiley Rogers '22
Victoria Thompson '21
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal C 2 2 1 4 9 7 4 2 4 2 3 1 4 1 1 3 3 2 55 Telis Athanasopoulos Yogo '22
Sammy Pickell '22
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins C 3 6 8 7 1 2 1 11 1 4 1 10 5 3 4 6 2 1 76 Telmo Basterra '21
Elisabeth Bowman '22
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls B 6 3 2 2 2 3 3 7 2 9 12 9 3 10 6 10 10 4 103 Marina Barzaghi '21
Darby Capellin '19
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins B 11 8 14 9 7 4 6 3 3 5 5 5 2 9 3 2 11 3 110 Andre Guaragna '21
Caroline Bourgeois '22
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave A 12 5 3 3 4 5 7 4 11 14 7 3 10 13 5 5 6 5 122 Ciara Rodriguez-Horan '22
Grace Bloomfield '19
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls C 8 4 5 5 5 10 5 5 13 11 11 7 9 4 14 13 12 7 148 Kathryn Bornarth '21
Rachel Yannelli '19
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal A 9 7 12 6 13 11 8 9 12 7 10 6 6 6 13 8 5 6 154 Stephanie Houck '21
Camille White '22
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls A 7 12 13 12 3 6 11 6 9 13 4 14 8 11 10 7 9 10 165 Allison Weinbecker '22
Carolina Perez Rovira '22
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave B 4 10 7 8 8 8 9 12 7 6 8 11 13 8 11 11 14 12 167 James Mcavoy '20
Kate Lenhard '21
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins A 5 13 6 10 12 13 12 8 8 16 6 4 7 14 9 14 7 8 172 Paula Resto '20
Madison Reynolds '21
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack B 17 15 9 13 10 12 10 10 6 10 13 13 11 7 8 4 4 11 183 Travis Tucker '20
Mack Brooks '21
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave C 14 16 11 11 15 9 13 13 10 1 9 16 14 5 7 12 8 15 199 Caelan Watts '21 [1-9]
Harris Cram '19 [10-18]
Sophia Ricker '19 [1-9]
Bamboo Trinh '22 [10-18]
Georgia Institute of Technology Georgia Institute of Technology Yellow Jackets A 10 11 10 14 11 18 14 15 15 12 14 8 12 12 15 16 13 13 233 Maggie Royal '20 [1-4, 10-18]
Leigh Collier '19 [5-9]
Hannah Gersch '19 [1-4, 10-18]
Georgia Institute of Technology Georgia Institute of Technology Yellow Jackets B 13 9 16 15 14 15 15 14 16 15 18 18 18 16 16 9 15 18 270 James Cipolletti '22 [1-9]
Cole Woerner '22 [10-18]
Michael Bick '20 [1-9]
Georgia Institute of Technology Georgia Institute of Technology Yellow Jackets C 15 18 17 18 17 14 17 18 18 8 15 12 15 15 12 17 16 16 278 David Sutton '19 [1-4]
Robert Beauchamp '20 [5-18]
Cole Woerner '22 [1-4]
David Sutton '19 [5-18]
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack A 16 17 15 16 18 17 16 16 14 18 17 15 17 17 18 15 17 14 293 Victoria Newberry '20
Madelyn Giles '20
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack C 18 14 18 17 16 16 18 17 17 17 16 17 16 18 17 18 18 17 305 Adam Augustine '19
Will Brooks '19
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (13 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A14A15A16A17A18A
Georgia Institute of TechnologyGeorgia Institute of Technology Yellow Jackets444444444444444444
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins131313131313131313131313131313131313
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Wolfpack777777777777777777
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls161616161616161616161616161616161616
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal101010101010101010101010101010101010
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave111111111111111111

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B13B14B15B16B17B18B
Georgia Institute of TechnologyGeorgia Institute of Technology Yellow Jackets555555555555555555
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins141414141414141414141414141414141414
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Wolfpack888888888888888888
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls171717171717171717171717171717171717
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal111111111111111111111111111111111111
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave222222222222222222

Division C

Team1C2C3C4C5C6C7C8C9C10C11C12C13C14C15C16C17C18C
Georgia Institute of TechnologyGeorgia Institute of Technology Yellow Jackets666666666666666666
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins151515151515151515151515151515151515
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Wolfpack999999999999999999
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls181818181818181818181818181818181818
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal121212121212121212121212121212121212
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave333333333333333333

Conditions — 09/22/2018 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 82%  ·  Pressure 1015.1 hPa

Temperature

83°F
↑ 85°F   ↓ 80°F
Feels like 93°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.9 kn
avg  ·  max 5.5 kn
Gusts to 14.2 kn
From SE (124°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover62% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity82% Pressure1015.1 hPa Rain0.42 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 6 kn · S 8 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Tulane: a favourites’ day (+0.08)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.03 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast +0.05
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.10 ± 0.10)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tulane by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (38 labelled days at Tulane).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →