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2019 Bryson Women's Regatta

SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 R15 R16 R17 R18 TOT Sailors
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal A 10 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 4 2 1 1 1 1 34 Stephanie Houck '21
Ashton Borcherding '22
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans A 7 2 3 3 3 3 7 2 2 3 2 1 5 3 6 5 2 2 61 Sarah Alexander '19 [1-18]
Sabrina Moreno '19 [1-3, 9-14, 17-18]
Rachel Leipold '22 [4-8, 15-16]
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal B 2 5 2 2 11 4 2 6 5 7 3 4 3 4 3 9 5 3 80 Camille White '22
Cassie Obel '19
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs A 4 1 4 4 6 6 3 4 3 5 4 3 1 5 8 8 7 6 82 Alyson Crowley '20
Helen Payne '19
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos A 9 7 9 10 4 7 5 3 8 4 7 7 2 8 2 12 3 7 114 Madeline Kraus '20 [1-18]
Mary Toomey '22 [1-4, 9-12, 18]
Olivia Beers '21 [5-8, 13-17]
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs B 1 4 DNF 9 9 9 4 7 9 6 6 5 6 7 7 2 4 4 114 Josselyn Verutti '21
Maddie Roman '20
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows A 3 8 DNF DNF 2 2 10 8 6 2 9 9 7 11 9 6 6 5 133 Annika Garrett '19 [1-18]
Megan Lucas '20 [1-3]
Megan Zamzow '19 [4-18]
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows B 6 10 7 8 10 8 8 9 4 10 8 8 8 1 11 7 11 9 143 Hayden Lahr '22 [1-18]
Paige Sullivan '19 [1-6, 11-16]
Jemma Baird '22 [7-10, 17-18]
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans B 11 9 6 5 7 10 6 10 7 8 10 6 9 10 10 3 8 10 145 Diya Correa '22
Kai Otsmaa '21
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons A 5 11 5 7 8 5 9 5 DNS DNS 5 10 11 9 4 4 10 8 146 Erika Barth '16
Chieko Imai '20
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos B 8 6 8 6 5 11 12 11 10 9 11 11 13 6 5 11 9 11 163 Margot Mason '21
Pyper Atkin '20
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons B 12 12 10 11 12 12 11 12 DNS DNS 13 13 12 12 13 13 13 13 224 Mckenna Roonan '21
Shea Goodner '21
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slug's B DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 12 12 10 13 12 10 12 12 263 LOP Keelin Davis '21
Kathryn Lewis '22
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slug's A DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 282 LOP Sofia Mack '20
Savannah Hallgarth '22
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2017 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A14A15A16A17A18A
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs55667788991010111112121313
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows101011111212131314141515161617171818
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans1111121213131414151516161717181855
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal6677889910101111121213131414
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons778899101011111212131314141515
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos88991010111112121313141415151616
University of California at Santa CruzUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slug's9910101111121213131414151516161717

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B13B14B15B16B17B18B
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs12121313141415151616171718185566
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows17171818556677889910101111
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans18185566778899101011111212
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal131314141515161617171818556677
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons1414151516161717181855667788
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos15151616171718185566778899
University of California at Santa CruzUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slug's16161717181855667788991010

Conditions — 02/16/2019 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 83%  ·  Pressure 1022.1 hPa

Temperature

49°F
↑ 51°F   ↓ 44°F
Feels like 43°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.3 kn
avg  ·  max 10.3 kn
Gusts to 34.2 kn
From WNW (287°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover62% Sunshine9.4 hrs Humidity83% Pressure1022.1 hPa Rain0.17 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 11 kn · NW 14 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Stanford: a typical day (−0.02)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment −0.02 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.04
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.32 ± 0.15)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Stanford by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (48 labelled days at Stanford).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →