University of Texas '20
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.71 (fleet 0.98) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 4–16 (20%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 2 | 4–16 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (20 matches) the record is 4–16 against 3.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.2). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-04-20 | SEISA Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.11 | 1.94 | 2–4 | 1.8 | +0.83 | 0.1 | 74% |
| 2019-02-16 | Nelson Roltsch Team Race | skipper | 0.71 | 0.74 | 2–12 | 2.0 | +0.03 | 0.0 | 87% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| SEISA Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 6 | 33% | — |
| SEISA Coed Championship | Skipper | B | 11 | 3.3 | 1.21 |
| Q1 Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 3.3 | 1.72 |
| Nelson Roltsch Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 14% | — |
| Harris Kempner Memorial | Skipper | A | 10 | 4.4 | 0.93 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
