| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Texas A&M University at Galveston | Aggies | 7–2 |
| 2 |  |
Tulane University | Green Wave | 6–3 |
| 3 |  |
University of Texas | Longhorns | 2–4 |
| 4 |  |
Texas A&M University | Aggies | 0–6 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 13,849 team race matches sailed before 2019-04-20, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 14 of 16 matches (88%) with a log-loss of 0.268 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.39 ± 0.59: a typical event, more orderly than 84% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies | 1 | 7.44 school −0.23 | Alex Schwinn / Leena Siiteri 2.50 John Hanna / Ava Cares 3.15 Jonathan Sager / Connor Sager 1.98 | 76% | 8–2 (80%) | +0.4 |
| 2 | Tulane University Green Wave | 2 | 7.03 home +0.38 | Caelan Watts / Kate Lenhard 2.10 Harris Cram / Sophia Ricker 1.90 Ciara Rodriguez-Horan / Josephine Larkin 2.60 | 64% | 6–4 (60%) | −0.3 |
| 3 | University of Texas Longhorns | 3 | 3.03 school −0.15 | Emily Verdoia / Arosh Chaudhari 1.24 Karina Bertelsmann / Frederik Winguth Banks Blackwell / Gabriella Wong 1.11 2–2 Banks Blackwell / Mckenzie Kotara 1.10 0–2 | 29% | 2–4 (33%) | +0.2 |
| 4 | Texas A&M University Aggies | 4 | 1.36 school −0.23 | Daniel Kendrick / Gabby Spring Lyndsey Sager / Jonathan Rolling Jules Bettler / Sydney Reitz | 5% | 0–6 (0%) | −0.3 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | University of Texas | 3.03 | 3.86 | 2–4 | 1.8 | +0.83 | 0.1 | 74% |
| 1 | Texas A&M University at Galveston | 7.44 | 7.74 | 8–2 | 7.6 | +0.30 | 0.1 | 54% |
| 2 | Tulane University | 7.03 | 6.79 | 6–4 | 6.3 | −0.24 | 0.1 | 75% |
| 4 | Texas A&M University | 1.36 | -1.64 | 0–6 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emily Verdoia | University of Texas | 1.24 | 2.07 | 2–4 | 1.8 | +0.83 | 0.1 | 74% |
| Karina Bertelsmann | University of Texas | 0.69 | 1.52 | 2–4 | 1.8 | +0.83 | 0.1 | 74% |
| Banks Blackwell | University of Texas | 1.11 | 1.94 | 2–4 | 1.8 | +0.83 | 0.1 | 74% |
| Alex Schwinn | Texas A&M University at Galveston | 2.50 | 2.80 | 8–2 | 7.6 | +0.30 | 0.1 | 54% |
| John Hanna | Texas A&M University at Galveston | 3.15 | 3.45 | 8–2 | 7.6 | +0.30 | 0.1 | 54% |
| Jonathan Sager | Texas A&M University at Galveston | 1.98 | 2.28 | 8–2 | 7.6 | +0.30 | 0.1 | 54% |
| Caelan Watts | Tulane University | 2.10 | 1.86 | 6–4 | 6.3 | −0.24 | 0.1 | 75% |
| Harris Cram | Tulane University | 1.90 | 1.66 | 6–4 | 6.3 | −0.24 | 0.1 | 75% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | Tulane University | 2.60 | 2.36 | 6–4 | 6.3 | −0.24 | 0.1 | 75% |
| Daniel Kendrick | Texas A&M University | 0.84 | -2.16 | 0–6 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
| Jules Bettler | Texas A&M University | -0.10 | -3.10 | 0–6 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Aggies | Wave | Longhorns | Aggies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies | 3–1 | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Tulane University Green Wave | 3–1 | L | ✕ | W | W |
| University of Texas Longhorns | 1–2 | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Texas A&M University Aggies | 0–3 | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Aggies | Wave | Longhorns | Aggies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies | 4–0 | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Tulane University Green Wave | 2–2 | L | ✕ | W | W |
| University of Texas Longhorns | 1–2 | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Texas A&M University Aggies | 0–3 | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Aggies | Wave | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies | 0–1 | ✕ | L |
| Tulane University Green Wave | 1–0 | W | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Aggies | Wave | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies | 1–0 | ✕ | W |
| Tulane University Green Wave | 0–1 | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Green Wave | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Aggies | 2-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Longhorns | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Aggies | 3-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Aggies | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Longhorns | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Aggies | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Longhorns | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Aggies | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Aggies | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Aggies | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Green Wave | 3-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Aggies | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Green Wave | 3-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Longhorns | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Aggies | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Aggies | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Longhorns | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Aggies | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Longhorns | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Aggies | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Aggies | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Aggies | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Green Wave | 1-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Green Wave | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Aggies | 1-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Aggies | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Green Wave | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Texas A&M University at Galveston | Aggies | Alex Schwinn '19 John Hanna '19 Jonathan Sager '20 |
Leena Siiteri '21 Ava Cares '20 Connor Sager '20 |
|
Tulane University | Green Wave | Caelan Watts '21 Ciara Rodriguez-Horan '22 Harris Cram '19 |
Kate Lenhard '21 Josephine Larkin '20 Sophia Ricker '19 |
|
University of Texas | Longhorns | Banks Blackwell '20 Emily Verdoia '20 Karina Bertelsmann '21 |
Mckenzie Kotara '21 Gabriella Wong '20 Arosh Chaudhari '20 Frederik Winguth '21 |
|
Texas A&M University | Aggies | Daniel Kendrick '19 Jules Bettler '20 Lyndsey Sager '21 |
Gabby Spring '20 Sydney Reitz '19 Jonathan Rolling '20 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
