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Troy Swetman Regatta

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 1 100
2 Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 2 124 MRP
3 Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 3 133 MRP
4 Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 142
5 University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 1 241
6 University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 2 285 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 1 A 4 2 1 2 1 1 1 2 4 3 1 1 23 John Hanna '19
Ava Cares '20
Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 2 B 2 3 4 1 3 4 2 5 1 1 2 3 51 MRP Skylar Bayman '22
Victor Jarvis '21
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave A 5 6 OCS 7 2 3 7 3 3 2 5 2 58 Ciara Rodriguez-Horan '22 [1-4]
James Mcavoy '20 [5-12]
Sophia Ricker '19 [1-2, 5-8]
James Mcavoy '20 [3-4]
Ciara Rodriguez-Horan '22 [9-12]
Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 3 B 7 1 3 6 7 6 5 8 BKD BKD 7 4 64 Dean Bethel '19
Leena Siiteri '21
Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 3 A 3 5 2 3 4 8 4 1 6 4 4 5 69 MRP Jonathan Sager '20
Connor Sager '20
Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 2 A 1 8 5 4 5 2 3 4 5 7 3 6 73 MRP Alex Schwinn '19
Noora Qassim '22
Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 1 B 8 4 6 5 8 5 8 6 2 9 8 8 77 Harrison Lack '22
Shea King '22
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave B 6 7 7 10 6 7 6 7 7 5 9 7 84 Erik Schumann '22 [1-4, 11-12]
Caelan Watts '21 [5-10]
Grace Bloomfield '19 [1-4, 11-12]
University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 1 B 11 11 10 8 10 9 12 9 9 10 6 9 114 Michael Hernandez '20
Mckenzie Kotara '21
University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 1 A 10 9 8 11 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 127 Carter Young '20 [1-4]
Gabriella Wong '20 [5-12]
Gabriella Wong '20 [1-4]
Carter Young '20 [5-12]
University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 2 A 9 10 9 12 9 10 9 10 10 8 12 10 138 MRP Arosh Chaudhari '20 [1-12]
Jordin Perry '20 [1-2]
Allie Gretzinger '21 [3-12]
University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 2 B 12 12 OCS 9 11 12 10 12 8 6 10 12 147 MRP Frederik Winguth '21 [1-12]
Mariana Caldas '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Jordin Perry '20 [3-4, 7-12]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2010 (26 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A
University of TexasUniversity of Texas Longhorns 155667788991010
University of TexasUniversity of Texas Longhorns 2665544332211
Texas A&M University at GalvestonTexas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 1112233445566
Texas A&M University at GalvestonTexas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 2221112121111101099
Texas A&M University at GalvestonTexas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 3334455667788
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave4433221112121111

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B
University of TexasUniversity of Texas Longhorns 11111121211223344
University of TexasUniversity of Texas Longhorns 2121211111010998877
Texas A&M University at GalvestonTexas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 1778899101011111212
Texas A&M University at GalvestonTexas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 2887766554433
Texas A&M University at GalvestonTexas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 3991010111112121122
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave10109988776655
School / Team SkipperCrew
Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston John Hanna '19 Ava Cares '20
Aggies 1 Harrison Lack '22 Shea King '22
Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Alex Schwinn '19 Noora Qassim '22
Aggies 2 Skylar Bayman '22 Victor Jarvis '21
Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Jonathan Sager '20 Connor Sager '20
Aggies 3 Dean Bethel '19 Leena Siiteri '21
Tulane University Tulane University Ciara Rodriguez-Horan '22 [1-4]
James Mcavoy '20 [5-12]		 Sophia Ricker '19 [1-2, 5-8]
James Mcavoy '20 [3-4]
Ciara Rodriguez-Horan '22 [9-12]
Green Wave Erik Schumann '22 [1-4, 11-12]
Caelan Watts '21 [5-10]		 Grace Bloomfield '19 [1-4, 11-12]
University of Texas University of Texas Carter Young '20 [1-4]
Gabriella Wong '20 [5-12]		 Gabriella Wong '20 [1-4]
Carter Young '20 [5-12]
Longhorns 1 Michael Hernandez '20 Mckenzie Kotara '21
University of Texas University of Texas Arosh Chaudhari '20 [1-12] Jordin Perry '20 [1-2]
Allie Gretzinger '21 [3-12]
Longhorns 2 Frederik Winguth '21 [1-12] Mariana Caldas '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Jordin Perry '20 [3-4, 7-12]

Conditions — 09/15/2018 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 87%  ·  Pressure 1014.0 hPa

Temperature

81°F
↑ 83°F   ↓ 79°F
Feels like 88°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
11.5 kn
avg  ·  max 13.2 kn
Gusts to 21.8 kn
From SE (124°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover67% Sunshine9.5 hrs Humidity87% Pressure1014.0 hPa Rain0.18 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 11 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Texas A&M Galveston: a favourites’ day (+0.07)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.05 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.12
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.00 ± 0.16)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Texas A&M Galveston by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (29 labelled days at Texas A&M Galveston).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →