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Garner-Tullis Team Race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 11–0
2 Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave Women 9–2
3 University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 1 7–4
4 University of Colorado at Boulder University of Colorado at Boulder Buffaloes 3–8
5 University of North Texas University of North Texas Mean Green 3–8
6 University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 2 1–10
7 Loyola University New Orleans Loyola University New Orleans Wolfpack 0–0

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 12,301 team race matches sailed before 2019-03-09, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 34 of 36 matches (94%) with a log-loss of 0.204 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.52 ± 0.30: an orderly event, more orderly than 94% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Tulane University
Green Wave		15.44
school −0.10, home +0.39		Harris Cram / Sophia Ricker 1.84 6–0
Caelan Watts / Kate Lenhard 1.93 6–0
Ciara Rodriguez-Horan / Grace Bloomfield 2.53 4–0
Erik Schumann / Stephen Hahn 4–0
David Graf / William Hoover 1.20 4–0
Caelan Watts / Katherine Cartiglia 1.91 4–0
Erik Schumann / Grace Bloomfield 2–0
Eli Eckhouse / Kevin Conrad 1–0
Ciara Rodriguez-Horan / Isabella Bentz 2.48 1–0
Caelan Watts / Eli Fisher 1.92 1–0		96%11–0 (100%)+0.4
2Tulane University
Green Wave Women		23.31
school −0.10, home +0.39		Alanna Austin / Amelia Schofield
Grace Siwicki / Katherine Robinson 1.11
Katherine Byrnes / Josephine Larkin		70%9–2 (82%)+1.3
3University of Texas
Longhorns 1		32.39Emily Verdoia / Gabriella Wong 1.14
Karina Bertelsmann / Jordin Perry 0.77
Frederik Winguth / Mckenzie Kotara		56%7–4 (64%)+0.8
4University of Colorado at Boulder
Buffaloes		42.17Calvin James / Weston Luke
Logan Hoelscher / Anna Morgan Abernathy
Nicholas Elsasser / Vamshi Arugonda		51%5–6 (45%)−0.6
5University of North Texas
Mean Green		60.36Emma Cooledge / Johnathan Henkel
Marcin Kostrzewa / Jamie Weston
Shelby Thornton / Stuart Zenner 2–4
Shelby Thornton / Brian Franklin 1–4		19%3–8 (27%)+1.0
6University of Texas
Longhorns 2		50.94Arosh Chaudhari / Kellen Cody
Clayton Lawrence / Mariana Caldas 0–6
Lillian Andersen / Taima Crean 0–6
Clayton Lawrence / Allie Gretzinger 1–4
Lillian Andersen / Hunter Mcconie 1–4		28%1–10 (9%)−2.1
7Loyola University New Orleans
Wolfpack		7-0.48Sofia Giordano / Ben Goldberg
Kimberly Diaz / Victoria Bender
Kirill Mastrocola / Bridget Boyle		12%0–6 (0%)−0.7

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1Tulane University Green Wave5.448.4411–010.6≥+3.000.667%
2Tulane University Green Wave Women3.314.969–27.7+1.651.325%
5University of North Texas Mean Green0.361.023–82.0+0.670.532%
3University of Texas Longhorns 12.392.877–46.2+0.480.341%
4University of Colorado at Boulder Buffaloes2.171.805–65.6−0.370.281%
6University of Texas Longhorns 20.94-0.881–103.1−1.822.499%
7Loyola University New Orleans Wolfpack-0.48-3.480–60.7≤−3.001.1>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Ciara Rodriguez-HoranTulane University2.535.535–04.9≥+3.000.191%
Harris CramTulane University1.844.846–05.9≥+3.000.288%
Caelan WattsTulane University1.934.9311–010.6≥+3.000.667%
Erik SchumannTulane University0.943.946–05.7≥+3.000.473%
David GrafTulane University1.204.204–03.7≥+3.000.476%
Alanna AustinTulane University0.692.349–27.7+1.651.325%
Grace SiwickiTulane University1.112.759–27.7+1.651.325%
Katherine ByrnesTulane University0.692.349–27.7+1.651.325%
Emma CooledgeUniversity of North Texas-0.150.523–82.0+0.670.532%
Marcin KostrzewaUniversity of North Texas-0.030.643–82.0+0.670.532%
Shelby ThorntonUniversity of North Texas0.040.713–82.0+0.670.532%
Emily VerdoiaUniversity of Texas1.141.627–46.2+0.480.341%
Karina BertelsmannUniversity of Texas0.771.257–46.2+0.480.341%
Frederik WinguthUniversity of Texas0.220.707–46.2+0.480.341%
Logan HoelscherUniversity of Colorado at Boulder-0.16-0.535–65.6−0.370.281%
Clayton LawrenceUniversity of Texas0.09-1.731–103.1−1.822.499%
Arosh ChaudhariUniversity of Texas-0.29-2.111–103.1−1.822.499%
Lillian AndersenUniversity of Texas0.81-1.011–103.1−1.822.499%
Kimberly DiazLoyola University New Orleans-1.30-4.300–60.7≤−3.001.1>99%
Kirill MastrocolaLoyola University New Orleans0.81-2.190–60.7≤−3.001.1>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11University of Texas Longhorns 1University of North Texas Mean Green92%
12University of Texas Longhorns 2Loyola University New Orleans Wolfpack78%
13Tulane University Green WaveUniversity of Colorado at Boulder Buffaloes99%
14Tulane University Green Wave WomenUniversity of North Texas Mean Green94%
15University of Texas Longhorns 1Loyola University New Orleans Wolfpack94%
16University of Colorado at Boulder BuffaloesUniversity of Texas Longhorns 279%
17Tulane University Green WaveTulane University Green Wave Women97%
18University of North Texas Mean GreenLoyola University New Orleans Wolfpack66%
19University of Texas Longhorns 1University of Colorado at Boulder Buffaloes56%
110Tulane University Green WaveUniversity of Texas Longhorns 298%
111Tulane University Green Wave WomenLoyola University New Orleans Wolfpack97%
112University of Colorado at Boulder BuffaloesUniversity of North Texas Mean Green87%
113Tulane University Green WaveUniversity of Texas Longhorns 188%
114Tulane University Green Wave WomenUniversity of Texas Longhorns 291%
115University of Colorado at Boulder BuffaloesLoyola University New Orleans Wolfpack92%
116Tulane University Green WaveUniversity of North Texas Mean Green98%
117University of Texas Longhorns 1University of Texas Longhorns 281%
118Tulane University Green Wave WomenUniversity of Colorado at Boulder Buffaloes75%
119Tulane University Green WaveLoyola University New Orleans Wolfpack100%
120University of North Texas Mean GreenUniversity of Texas Longhorns 237%upset
121Tulane University Green Wave WomenUniversity of Texas Longhorns 172%
222University of Texas Longhorns 1University of Colorado at Boulder Buffaloes55%
223Tulane University Green Wave WomenUniversity of Texas Longhorns 292%
224Tulane University Green WaveUniversity of North Texas Mean Green98%
225Tulane University Green Wave WomenUniversity of Texas Longhorns 173%
226University of Colorado at Boulder BuffaloesUniversity of North Texas Mean Green85%
227Tulane University Green WaveUniversity of Texas Longhorns 298%
228Tulane University Green Wave WomenUniversity of North Texas Mean Green95%
229University of Texas Longhorns 1University of Texas Longhorns 280%
230Tulane University Green WaveUniversity of Colorado at Boulder Buffaloes99%
231University of North Texas Mean GreenUniversity of Texas Longhorns 238%upset
232Tulane University Green Wave WomenUniversity of Colorado at Boulder Buffaloes77%
233Tulane University Green WaveUniversity of Texas Longhorns 189%
234University of Colorado at Boulder BuffaloesUniversity of Texas Longhorns 276%
235University of Texas Longhorns 1University of North Texas Mean Green86%
236Tulane University Green WaveTulane University Green Wave Women96%

Round 1

TeamRec.WaveWomen1BuffaloesGreen2Wolfpack
Tulane University Green Wave11–1✕✕WWWWW
Tulane University Green Wave Women11–1✕✕WWWWW
University of Texas Longhorns 15–7LL✕WL✕W
University of Colorado at Boulder Buffaloes3–3LLL✕WLW
University of North Texas Mean Green2–4LLWL✕WW
University of Texas Longhorns 25–7LL✕WL✕W
Loyola University New Orleans Wolfpack0–6LLLLLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.WaveWomen1BuffaloesGreen2
Tulane University Green Wave9–1✕✕WWWW
Tulane University Green Wave Women9–1✕✕WWWW
University of Texas Longhorns 13–7LL✕LW✕
University of Colorado at Boulder Buffaloes2–3LLW✕WW
University of North Texas Mean Green1–4LLLL✕L
University of Texas Longhorns 23–7LL✕LW✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 University of Texas Longhorns 1 1-2-5 def. University of North Texas Mean Green 3-4-6
2 University of Texas Longhorns 2 1-3-4 def. Loyola University New Orleans Wolfpack 2-5-6
3 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-3 def. University of Colorado at Boulder Buffaloes 4-5-6
4 Tulane University Green Wave Women 1-2-4 def. University of North Texas Mean Green 3-5-6
5 University of Texas Longhorns 1 1-3-4 def. Loyola University New Orleans Wolfpack 2-5-6
6 University of Colorado at Boulder Buffaloes 1-2-3 def. University of Texas Longhorns 2 4-5-6
7 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-4 def. Tulane University Green Wave Women 3-5-6
8 University of North Texas Mean Green 1-2-4 def. Loyola University New Orleans Wolfpack 3-5-6
9 University of Texas Longhorns 1 1-3-5 def. University of Colorado at Boulder Buffaloes 2-4-6
10 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-3 def. University of Texas Longhorns 2 4-5-6
11 Tulane University Green Wave Women 1-2-3 def. Loyola University New Orleans Wolfpack 4-5-6
12 University of Colorado at Boulder Buffaloes 1-2-3 def. University of North Texas Mean Green 4-5-6
13 Tulane University Green Wave 1-3-4 def. University of Texas Longhorns 1 2-5-6
14 Tulane University Green Wave Women 1-2-4 def. University of Texas Longhorns 2 3-5-6
15 University of Colorado at Boulder Buffaloes 1-2-3 def. Loyola University New Orleans Wolfpack 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
16 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-3 def. University of North Texas Mean Green 4-5-6
17 University of Texas Longhorns 1 1-2-4 def. University of Texas Longhorns 2 3-5-6
18 Tulane University Green Wave Women 1-2-4 def. University of Colorado at Boulder Buffaloes 3-5-6
19 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-3 def. Loyola University New Orleans Wolfpack 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
20 University of North Texas Mean Green 1-2-3 def. University of Texas Longhorns 2 4-5-6
21 Tulane University Green Wave Women 1-2-3 def. University of Texas Longhorns 1 4-5-6
22 University of Texas Longhorns 1 1-2-6 def. University of Colorado at Boulder Buffaloes 3-4-5
23 Tulane University Green Wave Women 1-2-3 def. University of Texas Longhorns 2 4-5-6
24 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-4 def. University of North Texas Mean Green 3-5-6
25 Tulane University Green Wave Women 1-2-6 def. University of Texas Longhorns 1 3-4-5
26 University of Colorado at Boulder Buffaloes 1-2-6 def. University of North Texas Mean Green 3-4-5
27 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-4 def. University of Texas Longhorns 2 3-5-6
28 Tulane University Green Wave Women 1-4-5 def. University of North Texas Mean Green 2-3-6
29 University of Texas Longhorns 1 1-2-4 def. University of Texas Longhorns 2 3-5-6 DNS
30 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-4 def. University of Colorado at Boulder Buffaloes 3-5-6
31 University of North Texas Mean Green 1-2-3 def. University of Texas Longhorns 2 4-5-6 DNS
32 Tulane University Green Wave Women 1-3-6 def. University of Colorado at Boulder Buffaloes 2-4-5
33 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-5 def. University of Texas Longhorns 1 3-4-6
34 University of Colorado at Boulder Buffaloes 1-3-5 def. University of Texas Longhorns 2 2-4-6 DNS
35 University of Texas Longhorns 1 1-3-5 def. University of North Texas Mean Green 2-4-6
36 Tulane University Green Wave 1-3-4 def. Tulane University Green Wave Women 2-5-6

Conditions — 03/09/2019 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 86%  ·  Pressure 1014.2 hPa

Temperature

72°F
↑ 75°F   ↓ 66°F
Feels like 73°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
10.9 kn
avg  ·  max 15.4 kn
Gusts to 27.4 kn
From S (174°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover79% Sunshine5.7 hrs Humidity86% Pressure1014.2 hPa Rain0.01 in

What this breeze does at Tulane — from fleet racing

Breeze: S about 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Tulane in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.04)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tulane by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (38 labelled fleet-race days at Tulane).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →