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3GT team race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 1 13–2
2 University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls Women 10–5
3 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 2 9–6
4 Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 2 6–9
5 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 1 4–11
6 University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls JV 3–12

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 15,200 team race matches sailed before 2021-03-06, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 33 of 45 matches (73%) with a log-loss of 0.555 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.43 ± 0.26: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 12% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Tulane University
Green Wave 1		18.81
school +0.08		Marcus Huttunen / Gillian Perrell 3.03
Thad Lettsome / Katherine Cartiglia 2.81
Asher Zittrer / Andrea Riefkohl Gonzalez 2.77		86%13–2 (87%)+0.1
2University of South Florida
Bulls Women		28.35
school +0.25, home +0.39		Kathryn Bornarth / Carolina Perez Rovira 2.70
Marina Barzaghi / Olivia Smith 2.84
Sydney Monahan / Lily Theisen 2.09		78%10–5 (67%)−1.7
3Jacksonville University
Fins 2		46.58
school +0.06		Matthew King / Kayla Putzke
Nathan Ikeda / Piper Desantis
Gordon Gurnell / Katherine Muehlendorf 2.31		44%9–6 (60%)+2.5
4Tulane University
Green Wave 2		37.26
school +0.08		William Keenan / Grace Siwicki 2.65
Mia Hanes / Abigail Borggaard
Caelan Watts / Katherine Byrnes 2.38		57%6–9 (40%)−2.6
5Jacksonville University
Fins 1		55.45
school +0.06		Charlotte Rose / Lucien Parker 2.79
Isabel Smith / Sara Flowerday
Mary Mann / Grace Benzal		22%4–11 (27%)+0.6
6University of South Florida
Bulls JV		64.86
school +0.25, home +0.39		Emma Shakespeare / Hannah Marsicano
Lexie Foos / Aine-Maire Porter
Piper Blackford / Jewel "Min Min" Kelly		13%3–12 (20%)+1.1

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
3Jacksonville University Fins 26.587.649–66.5+1.061.99%
6University of South Florida Bulls JV4.865.503–121.9+0.640.529%
5Jacksonville University Fins 15.455.774–113.4+0.320.145%
1Tulane University Green Wave 18.818.8913–212.9+0.080.064%
2University of South Florida Bulls Women8.357.5310–511.7−0.821.195%
4Tulane University Green Wave 27.266.156–98.6−1.112.198%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Lexie FoosUniversity of South Florida1.131.763–121.9+0.640.529%
Piper BlackfordUniversity of South Florida0.891.523–121.9+0.640.529%
Charlotte RoseJacksonville University2.793.114–113.4+0.320.145%
Mary MannJacksonville University0.670.994–113.4+0.320.145%
Asher ZittrerTulane University2.772.8513–212.9+0.080.064%
William KeenanTulane University2.651.546–98.6−1.112.198%
Mia HanesTulane University1.910.806–98.6−1.112.198%
Caelan WattsTulane University2.381.286–98.6−1.112.198%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Tulane University Green Wave 1Tulane University Green Wave 284%
12Jacksonville University Fins 2University of South Florida Bulls JV89%
13University of South Florida Bulls WomenJacksonville University Fins 196%
14Jacksonville University Fins 2Tulane University Green Wave 19%upset
15University of South Florida Bulls WomenTulane University Green Wave 277%
16University of South Florida Bulls JVJacksonville University Fins 134%upset
17Jacksonville University Fins 2University of South Florida Bulls Women14%upset
18Tulane University Green Wave 1University of South Florida Bulls JV98%
19Jacksonville University Fins 1Tulane University Green Wave 213%upset
110University of South Florida Bulls WomenUniversity of South Florida Bulls JV97%
111Jacksonville University Fins 2Tulane University Green Wave 234%upset
112Tulane University Green Wave 1Jacksonville University Fins 197%
113Tulane University Green Wave 2University of South Florida Bulls JV92%
114Tulane University Green Wave 1University of South Florida Bulls Women61%
115Jacksonville University Fins 1Jacksonville University Fins 224%upset
216Tulane University Green Wave 1Tulane University Green Wave 282%
217Jacksonville University Fins 2University of South Florida Bulls JV85%
218University of South Florida Bulls WomenJacksonville University Fins 195%
219Tulane University Green Wave 1Jacksonville University Fins 290%
220University of South Florida Bulls WomenTulane University Green Wave 275%
221Jacksonville University Fins 1University of South Florida Bulls JV64%
222Jacksonville University Fins 2University of South Florida Bulls Women15%upset
223Tulane University Green Wave 1University of South Florida Bulls JV98%
224Tulane University Green Wave 2Jacksonville University Fins 186%
225University of South Florida Bulls WomenUniversity of South Florida Bulls JV97%
226Jacksonville University Fins 2Tulane University Green Wave 233%upset
227Tulane University Green Wave 1Jacksonville University Fins 196%
228Tulane University Green Wave 2University of South Florida Bulls JV91%
229University of South Florida Bulls WomenTulane University Green Wave 139%upset
230Jacksonville University Fins 2Jacksonville University Fins 174%
331Tulane University Green Wave 1Tulane University Green Wave 282%
332Jacksonville University Fins 2University of South Florida Bulls JV83%
333University of South Florida Bulls WomenJacksonville University Fins 194%
334Tulane University Green Wave 1Jacksonville University Fins 290%
335University of South Florida Bulls WomenTulane University Green Wave 274%
336University of South Florida Bulls JVJacksonville University Fins 136%upset
337University of South Florida Bulls WomenJacksonville University Fins 285%
338Tulane University Green Wave 1University of South Florida Bulls JV98%
339Tulane University Green Wave 2Jacksonville University Fins 185%
340University of South Florida Bulls JVUniversity of South Florida Bulls Women4%upset
341Tulane University Green Wave 2Jacksonville University Fins 267%
342Tulane University Green Wave 1Jacksonville University Fins 196%
343Tulane University Green Wave 2University of South Florida Bulls JV91%
344Tulane University Green Wave 1University of South Florida Bulls Women62%
345Jacksonville University Fins 1Jacksonville University Fins 226%upset

Round 1

TeamRec.1Women221JV
Tulane University Green Wave 15–5✕WW✕WW
University of South Florida Bulls Women4–6L✕LLL✕
Jacksonville University Fins 26–4LW✕L✕W
Tulane University Green Wave 25–5✕WW✕WW
Jacksonville University Fins 16–4LW✕L✕W
University of South Florida Bulls JV4–6L✕LLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.1Women221JV
Tulane University Green Wave 16–4✕LW✕WL
University of South Florida Bulls Women4–6W✕LWL✕
Jacksonville University Fins 25–5LW✕L✕W
Tulane University Green Wave 26–4✕LW✕WL
Jacksonville University Fins 15–5LW✕L✕W
University of South Florida Bulls JV4–6W✕LWL✕

Round 3

TeamRec.1Women221JV
Tulane University Green Wave 18–2✕WW✕WW
University of South Florida Bulls Women5–5L✕WLW✕
Jacksonville University Fins 22–8LL✕L✕L
Tulane University Green Wave 28–2✕WW✕WW
Jacksonville University Fins 12–8LL✕L✕L
University of South Florida Bulls JV5–5L✕WLW✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Tulane University Green Wave 1 1-2-6 def. Tulane University Green Wave 2 3-4-5
2 Jacksonville University Fins 2 1-2-4 def. University of South Florida Bulls JV 3-5-6
3 University of South Florida Bulls Women 1-2-3 def. Jacksonville University Fins 1 4-5-6
4 Jacksonville University Fins 2 2-3-4 def. Tulane University Green Wave 1 1-5-6
5 University of South Florida Bulls Women 1-2-6 def. Tulane University Green Wave 2 3-4-5
6 University of South Florida Bulls JV 1-3-6 def. Jacksonville University Fins 1 2-4-5
7 Jacksonville University Fins 2 1-3-5 def. University of South Florida Bulls Women 2-4-6
8 Tulane University Green Wave 1 1-3-4 def. University of South Florida Bulls JV 2-5-6
9 Jacksonville University Fins 1 1-2-6 def. Tulane University Green Wave 2 3-4-5
10 University of South Florida Bulls Women 1-2-3 def. University of South Florida Bulls JV 4-5-6
11 Jacksonville University Fins 2 1-4-5 def. Tulane University Green Wave 2 2-3-6
12 Tulane University Green Wave 1 1-2-4 def. Jacksonville University Fins 1 3-5-6
13 Tulane University Green Wave 2 1-2-3 def. University of South Florida Bulls JV 4-5-6
14 Tulane University Green Wave 1 1-2-5 def. University of South Florida Bulls Women 3-4-6
15 Jacksonville University Fins 1 2-3-4 def. Jacksonville University Fins 2 1-5-6
16 Tulane University Green Wave 1 1-2-3 def. Tulane University Green Wave 2 4-5-6
17 Jacksonville University Fins 2 1-2-4 def. University of South Florida Bulls JV 3-5-6
18 University of South Florida Bulls Women 2-3-4 def. Jacksonville University Fins 1 1-5-6
19 Tulane University Green Wave 1 1-3-6 def. Jacksonville University Fins 2 2-4-5
20 University of South Florida Bulls Women 1-2-4 def. Tulane University Green Wave 2 3-5-6
21 Jacksonville University Fins 1 1-2-4 def. University of South Florida Bulls JV 3-5-6
22 Jacksonville University Fins 2 2-3-5 def. University of South Florida Bulls Women 1-4-6
23 Tulane University Green Wave 1 1-3-6 def. University of South Florida Bulls JV 2-4-5
24 Tulane University Green Wave 2 1-3-6 def. Jacksonville University Fins 1 2-4-5
25 University of South Florida Bulls Women 1-2-3 def. University of South Florida Bulls JV 4-5-6
26 Jacksonville University Fins 2 2-3-5 def. Tulane University Green Wave 2 1-4-6
27 Tulane University Green Wave 1 1-2-3 def. Jacksonville University Fins 1 4-5-6
28 Tulane University Green Wave 2 1-2-6 def. University of South Florida Bulls JV 3-4-5
29 University of South Florida Bulls Women 1-2-5 def. Tulane University Green Wave 1 3-4-6
30 Jacksonville University Fins 2 1-2-4 def. Jacksonville University Fins 1 3-5-6
31 Tulane University Green Wave 1 1-2-3 def. Tulane University Green Wave 2 4-5-6
32 Jacksonville University Fins 2 1-3-4 def. University of South Florida Bulls JV 2-5-6
33 University of South Florida Bulls Women 1-4-5 def. Jacksonville University Fins 1 2-3-6
34 Tulane University Green Wave 1 1-2-3 def. Jacksonville University Fins 2 4-5-6
35 University of South Florida Bulls Women 1-2-5 def. Tulane University Green Wave 2 3-4-6
36 University of South Florida Bulls JV 1-4-5 def. Jacksonville University Fins 1 2-3-6
37 University of South Florida Bulls Women 1-2-6 def. Jacksonville University Fins 2 3-4-5
38 Tulane University Green Wave 1 1-2-3 def. University of South Florida Bulls JV 4-5-6
39 Tulane University Green Wave 2 1-4-5 def. Jacksonville University Fins 1 2-3-6
40 University of South Florida Bulls JV 1-2-6 def. University of South Florida Bulls Women 3-4-5
41 Tulane University Green Wave 2 1-3-6 def. Jacksonville University Fins 2 2-4-5
42 Tulane University Green Wave 1 1-2-4 def. Jacksonville University Fins 1 3-5-6
43 Tulane University Green Wave 2 1-2-6 def. University of South Florida Bulls JV 3-4-5
44 Tulane University Green Wave 1 1-3-4 def. University of South Florida Bulls Women 2-5-6
45 Jacksonville University Fins 1 1-4-5 def. Jacksonville University Fins 2 2-3-6

Conditions — 03/06/2021 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 78%  ·  Pressure 1014.9 hPa

Temperature

65°F
↑ 67°F   ↓ 63°F
Feels like 63°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.4 kn
avg  ·  max 11.7 kn
Gusts to 21.0 kn
From ENE (66°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover82% Sunshine4.3 hrs Humidity78% Pressure1014.9 hPa Rain0.18 in

What this breeze does at South Florida — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at South Florida in this breeze: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.12)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.12 means a rating gap counts about 11% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at South Florida by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (75 labelled fleet-race days at South Florida).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →