| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Jacksonville University | Fins | 11–4 |
| 2 |  |
Tulane University | Green Wave | 11–4 |
| 3 | |
Tulane University | Angry Wave | 10–5 |
| 4 |  |
University of South Florida | Bulls | 6–9 |
| 5 | |
Jacksonville University | Dolphins | 6–9 |
| 6 | |
Tulane University | Riptide | 1–14 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 15,155 team race matches sailed before 2021-02-28, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 34 of 45 matches (76%) with a log-loss of 0.546 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.48 ± 0.28: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 11% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tulane University Angry Wave | 7.77 | 9.13 | 10–5 | 6.6 | +1.36 | 3.4 | 3% |
| 6 | Tulane University Riptide | 4.77 | 5.60 | 1–14 | 0.5 | +0.83 | 0.4 | 38% |
| 4 | University of South Florida Bulls | 7.49 | 7.62 | 6–9 | 5.7 | +0.13 | 0.0 | 54% |
| 1 | Jacksonville University Fins | 9.19 | 9.16 | 11–4 | 11.1 | −0.03 | 0.0 | 66% |
| 2 | Tulane University Green Wave | 9.76 | 8.98 | 11–4 | 12.6 | −0.77 | 1.0 | 94% |
| 5 | Jacksonville University Dolphins | 8.39 | 7.34 | 6–9 | 8.6 | −1.06 | 1.9 | 98% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Keenan | Tulane University | 2.30 | 3.66 | 10–5 | 6.6 | +1.36 | 3.4 | 3% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | Tulane University | 2.79 | 4.14 | 10–5 | 6.6 | +1.36 | 3.4 | 3% |
| Erik Schumann | Tulane University | 1.24 | 2.07 | 1–14 | 0.5 | +0.83 | 0.4 | 38% |
| Caelan Watts | Tulane University | 2.30 | 3.13 | 1–14 | 0.5 | +0.83 | 0.4 | 38% |
| Andre Guaragna | Jacksonville University | 2.88 | 2.86 | 11–4 | 11.1 | −0.03 | 0.0 | 66% |
| Charlotte Rose | Jacksonville University | 2.54 | 2.52 | 11–4 | 11.1 | −0.03 | 0.0 | 66% |
| Alfonso Garcia Bringas | Jacksonville University | 3.54 | 3.51 | 11–4 | 11.1 | −0.03 | 0.0 | 66% |
| Asher Zittrer | Tulane University | 2.74 | 1.97 | 11–4 | 12.6 | −0.77 | 1.0 | 94% |
| Samuel Baker | Jacksonville University | 2.46 | 1.40 | 6–9 | 8.6 | −1.06 | 1.9 | 98% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Fins | Wave | Wave | Bulls | Dolphins | Riptide | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville University Fins | 7–3 | ✕ | W | W | L | ✕ | W |
| Tulane University Green Wave | 6–9 | L | ✕ | ✕ | L | L | ✕ |
| Tulane University Angry Wave | 6–9 | L | ✕ | ✕ | L | L | ✕ |
| University of South Florida Bulls | 2–3 | W | W | W | ✕ | W | W |
| Jacksonville University Dolphins | 7–3 | ✕ | W | W | L | ✕ | W |
| Tulane University Riptide | 6–9 | L | ✕ | ✕ | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Fins | Wave | Wave | Bulls | Dolphins | Riptide | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville University Fins | 3–7 | ✕ | L | L | L | ✕ | L |
| Tulane University Green Wave | 9–6 | W | ✕ | ✕ | L | W | ✕ |
| Tulane University Angry Wave | 9–6 | W | ✕ | ✕ | L | W | ✕ |
| University of South Florida Bulls | 3–2 | W | W | W | ✕ | W | W |
| Jacksonville University Dolphins | 3–7 | ✕ | L | L | L | ✕ | L |
| Tulane University Riptide | 9–6 | W | ✕ | ✕ | L | W | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Fins | Wave | Wave | Bulls | Dolphins | Riptide | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville University Fins | 7–3 | ✕ | L | L | W | ✕ | L |
| Tulane University Green Wave | 7–8 | W | ✕ | ✕ | L | W | ✕ |
| Tulane University Angry Wave | 7–8 | W | ✕ | ✕ | L | W | ✕ |
| University of South Florida Bulls | 1–4 | L | W | W | ✕ | L | W |
| Jacksonville University Dolphins | 7–3 | ✕ | L | L | W | ✕ | L |
| Tulane University Riptide | 7–8 | W | ✕ | ✕ | L | W | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Fins | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Riptide | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Dolphins | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Angry Wave | 1-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Green Wave | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Bulls | 2-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Angry Wave | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Riptide | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Fins | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulls | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Dolphins | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Green Wave | 3-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Angry Wave | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulls | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Dolphins | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Riptide | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Green Wave | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Fins | 2-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Bulls | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Dolphins | 2-4-5 |
| 11 | |
Fins | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Angry Wave | 3-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Riptide | 3-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Fins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Dolphins | 3-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Bulls | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Riptide | 1-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Angry Wave | 3-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Fins | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Riptide | 3-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Angry Wave | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Dolphins | 3-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Angry Wave | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Riptide | 4-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Bulls | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Fins | 1-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Dolphins | 3-4-5 |
| 22 | |
Angry Wave | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bulls | 1-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Riptide | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Dolphins | 3-4-5 |
| 24 | |
Fins | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Green Wave | 3-4-5 |
| 25 | |
Bulls | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Dolphins | 2-4-6 |
| 26 | |
Angry Wave | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Fins | 1-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Riptide | 4-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Fins | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Dolphins | 3-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Bulls | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Riptide | 2-4-6 |
| 30 | |
Green Wave | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Angry Wave | 1-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Fins | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Riptide | 4-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Dolphins | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Angry Wave | 2-3-6 |
| 33 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Angry Wave | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Riptide | 4-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Fins | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bulls | 1-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Dolphins | 3-4-5 |
| 37 | |
Angry Wave | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulls | 4-5-6 |
| 38 | |
Dolphins | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Riptide | 3-5-6 |
| 39 | |
Fins | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Green Wave | 1-5-6 |
| 40 | |
Dolphins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-4-6 |
| 41 | |
Angry Wave | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Fins | 3-4-6 |
| 42 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Riptide | 4-5-6 |
| 43 | |
Fins | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Dolphins | 3-5-6 |
| 44 | |
Bulls | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Riptide | 3-4-5 |
| 45 | |
Angry Wave | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Green Wave | 3-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Jacksonville University | Fins | Alfonso Garcia Bringas '21 Andre Guaragna '21 Charlotte Rose '22 |
Caroline Bourgeois '22 Grace Benzal '23 Lucien Parker '24 |
|
Tulane University | Green Wave | Asher Zittrer '23 Cameron Giblin '23 Marcus Huttunen '24 |
Abigail Borggaard '24 Grace Siwicki '22 Gillian Perrell '24 |
|
Tulane University | Angry Wave | Ciara Rodriguez-Horan '22 Thad Lettsome '24 William Keenan '23 |
Grace Siwicki '22 Katherine Cartiglia '21 Caroline Benson '23 |
|
University of South Florida | Bulls | Kathryn Bornarth '21 Marina Barzaghi '21 Sydney Monahan '23 |
Samantha Kappaz '21 Lily Theisen '23 Carolina Perez Rovira '22 Chloe Sweeting '22 Olivia Smith '23 |
|
Jacksonville University | Dolphins | Chris Kiener '21 Samuel Baker '22 Telmo Basterra '21 |
Logan Brickhouse '21 Lauren Theis '22 Mia Porter '22 |
|
Tulane University | Riptide | Caelan Watts '21 Eli Eckhouse '21 Erik Schumann '22 |
Amelia Schofield '22 Katherine Byrnes '21 Isabella Bentz '24 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
