Baldwin Wood

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 27
2 Tulane University Tulane University Angry Wave 39
3 Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Womens 80
4 Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave Women 81
5 Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 131 MRP
6 Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Aggies 133 MRP
7 University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 135
8 Loyola University New Orleans Loyola University New Orleans Wolfpack 154 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave A 1 2 2 2 1 8 James Mcavoy '20
Kate Lenhard '21
Tulane University Tulane University Angry Wave A 2 1 4 1 2 10 Caelan Watts '21
Katherine Cartiglia '21
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave B 3 3 5 5 3 19 Harris Cram '19
Sophia Ricker '19
Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Womens A 6 9 1 3 4 23 Meiling Chan Chow '20 [1-5]
Gabby Spring '20 [1-4]
Sullivan Strohmeyer '20 [5]
Tulane University Tulane University Angry Wave B 7 4 6 4 8 29 David Graf '19
Josephine Larkin '20
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave Women B 9 6 3 6 9 33 Katherine Byrnes '21
Katherine Robinson '19
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave Women A 5 12 11 15 5 48 Alanna Austin '21 [1-5]
Amelia Schofield '22 [1-4]
Bamboo Trinh '22 [5]
Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Womens B 11 15 12 7 12 57 Lyndsey Sager '21 [1-4]
Elizabeth Bik '21 [5]
Catherine Rankin '22 [1-4]
Amelia Knapp '21 [5]
Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Aggies A 8 7 7 11 6 59 MRP Daniel Kendrick '19 [1-5]
Nolan Bradberry '20 [1-4]
James Meneses '21 [5]
University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns A 13 13 14 8 15 63 Michael Hernandez '20 [1-4]
Frederik Winguth '21 [5]
Gabriella Wong '20 [1-4]
Jordin Perry '20 [5]
Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies B 10 8 9 9 7 63 MRP Harrison Lack '22 [1-5]
Victor Jarvis '21 [1-4]
Aryya Ramchandani '21 [5]
Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies A 4 10 10 14 10 68 MRP John Jacobs '19
Bailey Miller '21
University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns B 15 14 16 13 14 72 Clayton Lawrence '20 [1-4]
Carter Young '20 [5]
Lillian Andersen '21 [1-4]
Arosh Chaudhari '20 [5]
Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Aggies B 12 11 8 10 13 74 MRP Jules Bettler '20 [1-5]
Riley Hoofard '21 [1-4]
Paul Skierski '22 [5]
Loyola University New Orleans Loyola University New Orleans Wolfpack A 14 5 13 12 11 75 MRP Sofia Giordano '20
Morgan Faust '19
Loyola University New Orleans Loyola University New Orleans Wolfpack B 16 16 15 16 16 79 Natalie Kulka '21
Ben Goldberg '21
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (13 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Loyola University New OrleansLoyola University New Orleans Wolfpack77777
University of TexasUniversity of Texas Longhorns1515151515
Texas A&M UniversityTexas A&M University Aggies1111111111
Texas A&M UniversityTexas A&M University Womens99999
Texas A&M University at GalvestonTexas A&M University at Galveston Aggies1313131313
Tulane UniversityTulane University Angry Wave33333
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave11111
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave Women55555

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B
Loyola University New OrleansLoyola University New Orleans Wolfpack88888
University of TexasUniversity of Texas Longhorns1616161616
Texas A&M UniversityTexas A&M University Aggies1212121212
Texas A&M UniversityTexas A&M University Womens1010101010
Texas A&M University at GalvestonTexas A&M University at Galveston Aggies1414141414
Tulane UniversityTulane University Angry Wave44444
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave22222
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave Women66666

Conditions — 10/27/2018 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 66%  ·  Pressure 1017.7 hPa

Temperature

67°F
↑ 71°F   ↓ 59°F
Feels like 67°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.8 kn
avg  ·  max 6.0 kn
Gusts to 14.0 kn
From WNW (294°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover2% Sunshine10.8 hrs Humidity66% Pressure1017.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 7 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Tulane: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.11)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.09 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.19
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.24 ± 0.20)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.11 means a rating gap counts about 9% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tulane by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (38 labelled days at Tulane).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →