Nelson Roltsch

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 6 4 10
2 Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Aggies 8 11 19
3 Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 2 16 12 28
4 Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 1 14 14 28
5 Rice University Rice University Owls 18 24 42
6 University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 23 21 44
7 Loyola University New Orleans Loyola University New Orleans Wolfpack 27 26 53
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 1 1 3 1 6 Alexander Thompson '18
Aspen Spiker '19
Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Aggies 2 2 1 3 8 Julian Martin '20 [1-4]
Meiling Chan Chow '20 [1-2]
Carson Pepper '17 [3-4]
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 1 6 4 2 2 14 Mary Berg '20
Sophia Ricker '19
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 2 3 3 5 5 16 James Mcavoy '20 [1-2]
David Graf '19 [3-4]
William Hoover '20 [1-2]
Rice University Rice University Owls 5 5 4 4 18 Carter Walker '20
Anna Cole '20
University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 4 6 7 6 23 Anish Zute '18 [1-2]
Aaron Comen '18 [3-4]
Arosh Chaudhari '20 [1-2]
Jordin Perry '20 [3-4]
Loyola University New Orleans Loyola University New Orleans Wolfpack 7 7 6 7 27 Sofia Giordano '20
Randolph Dupont '19
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 1 1 1 1 4 Alex Schwinn '19
Amanda Olson '19
Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Aggies 2 3 3 3 11 Benjamin Lipari '18 [1-2]
Catherine Bristow '17 [3-4]
Denise Irvin '18 [1-2]
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 2 4 4 2 2 12 Malcolm Kriegel '18 [1-2]
Nick Watts '18 [3-4]
Leland Van Deventer '20 [1-2]
Stephen Hahn '20 [3-4]
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 1 3 2 4 5 14 Catie Cullen '20 [1-2]
Jessica Andres '20 [3-4]
Grace Bloomfield '19 [1-2]
University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 5 7 5 4 21 Emily Verdoia '20 [1-2]
Michael Hernandez '20 [3-4]
Gabriella Wong '20 [1-2]
Rice University Rice University Owls 6 5 6 7 24 Keanu Mitanga '18
Kristina Dickman '18
Loyola University New Orleans Loyola University New Orleans Wolfpack 7 6 7 6 26 Patrick Burtchaell '18
Brendon Caliva '20
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2011 (28 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Loyola University New OrleansLoyola University New Orleans Wolfpack1133
Rice UniversityRice University Owls2244
University of TexasUniversity of Texas Longhorns7722
Texas A&M UniversityTexas A&M University Aggies3355
Texas A&M University at GalvestonTexas A&M University at Galveston Aggies4466
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave 15577
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave 26611

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Loyola University New OrleansLoyola University New Orleans Wolfpack2244
Rice UniversityRice University Owls3355
University of TexasUniversity of Texas Longhorns1133
Texas A&M UniversityTexas A&M University Aggies4466
Texas A&M University at GalvestonTexas A&M University at Galveston Aggies5577
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave 16611
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave 27722

Conditions — 02/18/2017 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 81%  ·  Pressure 1012.9 hPa

Temperature

64°F
↑ 69°F   ↓ 53°F
Feels like 66°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.6 kn
avg  ·  max 5.7 kn
Gusts to 13.0 kn
From NNW (340°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover52% Sunshine9.9 hrs Humidity81% Pressure1012.9 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 7 kn · E 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Tulane: a favourites’ day (+0.09)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.11 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.20
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.34 ± 0.23)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tulane by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (38 labelled days at Tulane).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →