Owlapalooza

HostRice
Date10/01/2016
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Texas A&M University	Aggies 2	22	30	52
2	Tulane University	Green Wave 1	38	19	57
3	North Texas	North Texas	30	65	95
4	Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies 1	52	71	123
5	University of New Orleans	New Orleans	70	53	123
6	Texas A&M University	Aggies 1	52	75	127
7	Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies 2	63	75	138
8	Rice University	Owls 1	61	94	155
9	Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi	Islanders 1	113	70	183
10	Tulane University	Green Wave 2	77	109	186
11	Rice University	Owls 2	106	81	187
12	Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi	Islanders 2	121	120	241
13	Bears 1	Bears 1	134	107	241
14	University of Texas	Longhorns	131	118	249
15	University of Kansas	Jayhawks	155	144	299
16	Bears 2	Bears 2	161	156	317

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	TOT	Sailors
Texas A&M University	Aggies 2	2	3	1	2	1	4	2	2	4	1	22	Bradley Shaw '16 Megan Carugati '19
North Texas	North Texas	3	4	5	7	2	2	1	1	3	2	30
Tulane University	Green Wave 1	5	5	3	3	3	3	7	4	1	4	38	Nick Watts '18 Miia Newman '17
Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies 1	1	1	2	1	7	9	6	6	11	8	52	John Hanna '19 [1-4] Dean Bethel '19 [5-10] Delaney Quinn '20 [1-4]
Texas A&M University	Aggies 1	4	9	7	5	9	6	4	3	2	3	52	Catherine Bristow '17 [1-10] Erin Hawk '16 [1-2, 5-10] Sevanna Stewart '19 [3-4]
Rice University	Owls 1	7	13	10	4	4	1	3	8	5	6	61	Carter Walker '20 [1-10] Abhijeet Mulgund '19 [1-4] Kiujoy Kokko '19 [5-10]
Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies 2	10	7	4	8	6	7	5	5	6	5	63	Jack Clark '19 Aspen Spiker '19
University of New Orleans	New Orleans	8	6	6	6	5	5	8	9	7	10	70	Morrgan Haack '18 Emily Digiovanna '17
Tulane University	Green Wave 2	9	2	8	9	10	8	9	7	8	7	77	Mary Berg '20 Alexander Burgers '20
Rice University	Owls 2	12	10	12	10	11	10	11	10	9	11	106	Elena Busch '18 [1-4] Anna Cole '20 [5-10] Kevin Li '19 [1-2] Jason Mendez '20 [3-4] Francis Bunt '20 [5-10]
Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi	Islanders 1	6	8	13	11	12	14	12	11	13	13	113	Chloe Childs '18 Holly Hottenstein '19
Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi	Islanders 2	13	14	14	14	13	12	10	12	10	9	121	Kevin Dirksmeyer '17 [1-10] Rachel Pearson '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Landon Coston '16 [3-4, 7-8]
University of Texas	Longhorns	11	12	15	16	14	13	13	13	12	12	131	Aaron Comen '18 [1-10] Carter Young '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Mahib Shroff '20 [3-4, 7-8]
Bears 1	Bears 1	14	11	9	13	8	11	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	134
University of Kansas	Jayhawks	15	15	11	12	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	155	Josh Decker '18 [1-10] Nick Baska '18 [1-2, 5-10] Wyatt Hursh '19 [3-4]
Bears 2	Bears 2	16	16	16	15	15	15	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	161

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	TOT	Sailors
Tulane University	Green Wave 1	1	2	4	3	1	1	3	1	2	1	19	James Mcavoy '20 Stephen Hahn '20
Texas A&M University	Aggies 2	2	1	1	1	2	2	1	DSQ	1	2	30	Julian Martin '20 [1-10] Jonathan Rolling '20 [1-4] James Sharp '19 [5-10]
University of New Orleans	New Orleans	RAF	6	5	2	6	3	4	2	5	3	53	Nigel Watkins '19 Morrgan Haack '18
North Texas	North Texas	7	8	11	5	7	10	2	3	7	5	65
Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi	Islanders 1	9	4	6	6	4	6	8	11	10	6	70	Robert Moreno '17 [1-10] Maddie Hightower '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Hannah Stiles '18 [3-4, 7-8]
Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies 1	3	3	10	8	9	9	7	6	8	8	71	Andrew Essenburgh '19 Lindsay Burris '20
Texas A&M University	Aggies 1	6	12	8	4	11	13	6	5	3	7	75	Alexandra Oyston '18 [1-2, 5-10] Alyssa Schultz '16 [3-4] Meiling Chan Chow '20 [1-2, 5-10] Alexandra Oyston '18 [3-4]
Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies 2	12	7	2	11	5	11	5	4	9	9	75	John Jacobs '19 Annabelle Hermis '20
Rice University	Owls 2	4	16	14	10	8	4	10	7	4	4	81	Amy Fox '17 [1-6, 9] Sarah Glover '20 [7-8, 10] Sarah Glover '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9] Jose Pacheco '20 [3-4] Amy Fox '17 [7-8, 10]
Rice University	Owls 1	8	10	3	7	14	7	9	12	13	11	94	Keanu Mitanga '18 [1-4] Richard Appel '20 [5-10] Kristina Dickman '18 [1-4] Jason Mendez '20 [5-10]
Bears 1	Bears 1	5	5	12	9	3	5	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	107
Tulane University	Green Wave 2	14	13	9	13	13	8	11	10	6	12	109	Jessica Andres '20 Eli Fisher '21
University of Texas	Longhorns	11	9	13	12	12	14	13	9	12	13	118	Alec Chappetta '18 [1-10] Michael Hernandez '20 [1-2, 7-8] Eugene Harrison '20 [3-4, 9-10] Alejandro Paez Touche '18 [5-6]
Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi	Islanders 2	13	14	15	BKD	10	15	12	8	11	10	120	Nathan Waguespack '17 Kimberly Burns '20
University of Kansas	Jayhawks	10	11	7	14	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	144	Isaac Brinkman '19 Matthew Santoyo '20
Bears 2	Bears 2	15	15	16	15	15	12	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	156

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.100+0.10

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2016 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A
Bears 1 Bears 1	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	18	18
Bears 2 Bears 2	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10
University of Kansas Jayhawks	3	3	5	5	7	7	18	18	11	11
University of New Orleans New Orleans	14	14	16	16	2	2	4	4	6	6
North Texas North Texas	15	15	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7
Rice University Owls 1	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12
Rice University Owls 2	5	5	7	7	18	18	11	11	13	13
University of Texas Longhorns	16	16	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8
Texas A&M University Aggies 1	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14
Texas A&M University Aggies 2	7	7	18	18	11	11	13	13	15	15
Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi Islanders 1	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16
Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi Islanders 2	18	18	11	11	13	13	15	15	1	1
Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 1	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16	2	2
Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 2	11	11	13	13	15	15	1	1	3	3
Tulane University Green Wave 1	12	12	14	14	16	16	2	2	4	4
Tulane University Green Wave 2	13	13	15	15	1	1	3	3	5	5

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B
Bears 1 Bears 1	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10
Bears 2 Bears 2	3	3	5	5	7	7	18	18	11	11
University of Kansas Jayhawks	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12
University of New Orleans New Orleans	15	15	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7
North Texas North Texas	16	16	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8
Rice University Owls 1	5	5	7	7	18	18	11	11	13	13
Rice University Owls 2	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14
University of Texas Longhorns	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	18	18
Texas A&M University Aggies 1	7	7	18	18	11	11	13	13	15	15
Texas A&M University Aggies 2	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16
Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi Islanders 1	18	18	11	11	13	13	15	15	1	1
Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi Islanders 2	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16	2	2
Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 1	11	11	13	13	15	15	1	1	3	3
Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 2	12	12	14	14	16	16	2	2	4	4
Tulane University Green Wave 1	13	13	15	15	1	1	3	3	5	5
Tulane University Green Wave 2	14	14	16	16	2	2	4	4	6	6

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Rice University	Carter Walker '20 [1-10]	Abhijeet Mulgund '19 [1-4] Kiujoy Kokko '19 [5-10]
Owls 1	Keanu Mitanga '18 [1-4] Richard Appel '20 [5-10]	Kristina Dickman '18 [1-4] Jason Mendez '20 [5-10]
Rice University	Elena Busch '18 [1-4] Anna Cole '20 [5-10]	Kevin Li '19 [1-2] Jason Mendez '20 [3-4] Francis Bunt '20 [5-10]
Owls 2	Amy Fox '17 [1-6, 9] Sarah Glover '20 [7-8, 10]	Sarah Glover '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9] Jose Pacheco '20 [3-4] Amy Fox '17 [7-8, 10]
Texas A&M University	Catherine Bristow '17 [1-10]	Erin Hawk '16 [1-2, 5-10] Sevanna Stewart '19 [3-4]
Aggies 1	Alexandra Oyston '18 [1-2, 5-10] Alyssa Schultz '16 [3-4]	Meiling Chan Chow '20 [1-2, 5-10] Alexandra Oyston '18 [3-4]
Texas A&M University	Bradley Shaw '16	Megan Carugati '19
Aggies 2	Julian Martin '20 [1-10]	Jonathan Rolling '20 [1-4] James Sharp '19 [5-10]
Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi	Chloe Childs '18	Holly Hottenstein '19
Islanders 1	Robert Moreno '17 [1-10]	Maddie Hightower '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Hannah Stiles '18 [3-4, 7-8]
Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi	Kevin Dirksmeyer '17 [1-10]	Rachel Pearson '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Landon Coston '16 [3-4, 7-8]
Islanders 2	Nathan Waguespack '17	Kimberly Burns '20
Texas A&M University at Galveston	John Hanna '19 [1-4] Dean Bethel '19 [5-10]	Delaney Quinn '20 [1-4]
Aggies 1	Andrew Essenburgh '19	Lindsay Burris '20
Texas A&M University at Galveston	Jack Clark '19	Aspen Spiker '19
Aggies 2	John Jacobs '19	Annabelle Hermis '20
Tulane University	Nick Watts '18	Miia Newman '17
Green Wave 1	James Mcavoy '20	Stephen Hahn '20
Tulane University	Mary Berg '20	Alexander Burgers '20
Green Wave 2	Jessica Andres '20	Eli Fisher '21
University of Kansas	Josh Decker '18 [1-10]	Nick Baska '18 [1-2, 5-10] Wyatt Hursh '19 [3-4]
Jayhawks	Isaac Brinkman '19	Matthew Santoyo '20
University of New Orleans	Morrgan Haack '18	Emily Digiovanna '17
New Orleans	Nigel Watkins '19	Morrgan Haack '18
University of Texas	Aaron Comen '18 [1-10]	Carter Young '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Mahib Shroff '20 [3-4, 7-8]
Longhorns	Alec Chappetta '18 [1-10]	Michael Hernandez '20 [1-2, 7-8] Eugene Harrison '20 [3-4, 9-10] Alejandro Paez Touche '18 [5-6]

Conditions — 10/01/2016 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 59% · Pressure 1017.7 hPa

Temperature

75°F

↑ 80°F ↓ 60°F

Feels like 78°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

2.5 kn

avg · max 3.4 kn

Gusts to 8.4 kn

From E (94°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover89% Sunshine9.3 hrs Humidity59% Pressure1017.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 6 kn · E 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Rice: a typical day (+0.00)

Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.

Fleet adjustment +0.11 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.12

Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.28 ± 0.10)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Rice by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Rice: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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