| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
U. S. Naval Academy | Midshipmen 1 | 5–0 |
| 2 |  |
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Seahawks | 4–1 |
| 3 |  |
George Washington University | Colonials 1 | 3–2 |
| 4 | |
U. S. Naval Academy | Midshipmen 2 | 2–3 |
| 5 | |
George Washington University | Colonials 2 | 1–4 |
| 6 |  |
Old Dominion University | Monarchs | 0–5 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 15,572 team race matches sailed before 2021-04-11, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 13 of 15 matches (87%) with a log-loss of 0.305 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.38 ± 0.47: a typical event, more orderly than 83% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 | 11.12 | 14.12 | 5–0 | 4.7 | ≥+3.00 | 0.4 | 74% |
| 2 | St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks | 8.56 | 10.51 | 4–1 | 2.7 | +1.96 | 1.7 | 17% |
| 5 | George Washington University Colonials 2 | 6.39 | 7.13 | 1–4 | 0.6 | +0.74 | 0.2 | 47% |
| 3 | George Washington University Colonials 1 | 8.98 | 8.77 | 3–2 | 3.2 | −0.21 | 0.0 | 79% |
| 4 | U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 | 8.37 | 7.84 | 2–3 | 2.4 | −0.53 | 0.2 | 86% |
| 6 | Old Dominion University Monarchs | 7.34 | 4.34 | 0–5 | 1.4 | ≤−3.00 | 2.8 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jc Hermus | U. S. Naval Academy | 3.72 | 6.72 | 5–0 | 4.7 | ≥+3.00 | 0.4 | 74% |
| Keiran James Golden | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 2.38 | 4.33 | 4–1 | 2.7 | +1.96 | 1.7 | 17% |
| Lewis Cooper | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 3.47 | 5.42 | 4–1 | 2.7 | +1.96 | 1.7 | 17% |
| Trenton Shaw | U. S. Naval Academy | 2.39 | 1.91 | 2–2 | 2.4 | −0.47 | 0.1 | 84% |
| Hannah Pokorny | Old Dominion University | 2.17 | -0.83 | 0–5 | 1.4 | ≤−3.00 | 2.8 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | 1 | Seahawks | 1 | 2 | 2 | Monarchs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 | 7–3 | ✕ | L | W | ✕ | W | W |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks | 4–1 | W | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| George Washington University Colonials 1 | 4–6 | L | L | ✕ | L | ✕ | W |
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 | 7–3 | ✕ | L | W | ✕ | W | W |
| George Washington University Colonials 2 | 4–6 | L | L | ✕ | L | ✕ | W |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Midshipmen 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Colonials 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Colonials 1 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Midshipmen 2 | 1-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Midshipmen 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Colonials 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Midshipmen 2 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Monarchs | 1-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Colonials 1 | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Midshipmen 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Colonials 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Midshipmen 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahawks | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Colonials 1 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Monarchs | 1-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Midshipmen 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Colonials 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-4-5 |
| 12 | |
Midshipmen 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Colonials 1 | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Midshipmen 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Midshipmen 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Colonials 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Colonials 2 | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
U. S. Naval Academy | Midshipmen 1 | Connor Bayless '21 Gray Benson '22 Jc Hermus '22 |
Fiona Lobon '22 Madeline Pruzan '21 Kimmie Leonard '22 |
|
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Seahawks | Gloria Kevliciute '21 Keiran James Golden '24 Lewis Cooper '21 |
Madison Bashaw '24 Sam Muir '22 Ellie Sekowski '23 Sophia Taczak '21 |
|
George Washington University | Colonials 1 | Matt Logue '22 Matthew Priebe '22 Soenke Jordan '21 |
Allison Forsyth '22 Chiara Perotti Correa '22 Ruby Gordon '23 |
|
U. S. Naval Academy | Midshipmen 2 | Caden Scheiblauer '23 Gavin Mcjones '23 Olivia De Olazarra '22 Trenton Shaw '24 |
Sean Linden '21 Carlyn Blauvelt '23 Sally Johnson '22 Elizabeth Linsdell '23 |
|
George Washington University | Colonials 2 | John Deruff '21 Michael Ehnot '22 Sarah Hardee '22 |
Genevieve Mumma '24 Sydney Register '22 Taylor Milefchik '22 |
|
Old Dominion University | Monarchs | Bridget Groble '22 Hannah Pokorny '21 Megan Geith '24 |
Abigail Tutt '21 Makalynne Dyer '22 Katherine Barton '23 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
