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Allstate Sugar Bowl

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars 326
2 Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 348
3 British U British U British U 483
4 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 598
5 Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 656
6 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 675
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 R15 R16 R17 R18 TOT Sailors
College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars B 5 3 2 3 5 3 4 2 4 2 8 3 8 4 1 5 8 6 76 Jack Brown '21
Hunter Skinner '20
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave B 7 10 3 2 1 6 1 1 3 4 1 8 9 1 9 1 6 13 86 Cameron Giblin '23 [1-18]
William Keenan '23 [1-9]
Katherine Cartiglia '21 [10-18]
College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars C 1 9 16 1 2 1 2 3 5 6 2 7 4 9 6 3 1 8 86 Steven Leuck '20 [1-18]
Natasha Scott Morton '22 [1-3]
Katherine Lounsbury '20 [4-18]
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos B 15 1 5 9 8 5 5 8 15 8 5 12 1 3 11 7 3 5 126 Quinn Wilson '21
Elizabeth Moody '20
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave A 13 4 6 11 6 10 9 9 10 1 9 1 15 5 4 12 4 1 130 Ciara Rodriguez-Horan '22 [1-18]
Amelia Schofield '22 [1-9]
Grace Siwicki '22 [10-18]
British U British U British U C 10 2 4 6 3 2 17 4 11 9 16 5 11 11 13 2 2 3 131
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave C 17 8 1 DSQ 7 17 6 12 1 5 7 6 3 2 8 4 5 4 132 Asher Zittrer '23 [1-9]
Caroline Benson '23 [10-18]
Stephen Hahn '20 [1-9]
Lydia Brown '23 [10-17]
Kara Scully '23 [18]
British U British U British U B 2 11 9 5 14 16 7 11 7 13 3 2 10 10 7 15 12 2 156
College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars A 8 12 7 7 13 13 8 15 13 7 4 4 6 7 5 8 10 17 164 Marian Frances Williams '21 [1-18]
Katherine Lounsbury '20 [1-3]
Natasha Scott Morton '22 [4-18]
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs A 11 5 14 10 10 11 14 7 12 14 6 9 17 14 2 6 11 12 185 Bridget Groble '22 [1-18]
Julia Williams-Portland '21 [1-9]
Abigail Tutt '21 [10-18]
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins C 3 14 18 16 16 12 3 6 8 3 13 10 7 12 16 11 13 7 188 Jack Gower '20 [1-18]
Natalia Gagliano '23 [1-3]
Sara Flowerday '22 [4-9]
Elisabeth Bowman '22 [10-18]
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs B 6 7 12 4 12 9 10 10 2 15 10 17 12 16 12 17 9 9 189 Noyl Odom '23
Makalynne Dyer '22
British U British U British U A 4 6 8 12 4 4 12 13 6 18 11 15 13 18 10 14 14 14 196
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos C 9 13 10 14 9 14 13 5 14 16 12 11 2 6 17 10 15 10 200 Chris Kayda '23
Kenneth Sherb '23
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins B 12 16 11 8 11 15 DNF DNF 9 17 17 16 5 13 3 13 7 11 222 Charlotte Rose '22 [1-18]
Madison Reynolds '21 [1-9]
Sara Flowerday '22 [10-18]
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins A 14 15 13 15 15 7 15 DNF DNF 12 15 18 14 17 15 9 17 16 265 Paula Resto '20 [1-9]
Courtney Purcell '20 [10-15]
Madison Reynolds '21 [16-18]
Courtney Purcell '20 [1-3]
Natalia Gagliano '23 [4-18]
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos A 16 18 15 13 18 8 16 16 DNF 10 14 13 16 8 18 18 18 18 272 Mary Toomey '22
Sophie Thompson '21
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs C 18 17 17 17 17 18 11 14 16 11 18 14 18 15 14 16 16 15 282 Parker Purrington '24 [1-9]
Hannah Pokorny '21 [10-18]
Abigail Tutt '21 [1-9]
Julia Williams-Portland '21 [10-18]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (13 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A14A15A16A17A18A
British UBritish U British U111444777101010131313161616
College of CharlestonCollege of Charleston Cougars444777101010131313161616222
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins777101010131313161616222555
Old Dominion UniversityOld Dominion University Monarchs101010131313161616222555888
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave131313161616222555888111111
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos161616222555888111111141414

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B13B14B15B16B17B18B
British UBritish U British U222555888111111141414171717
College of CharlestonCollege of Charleston Cougars555888111111141414171717333
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins888111111141414171717333666
Old Dominion UniversityOld Dominion University Monarchs111111141414171717333666999
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave141414171717333666999121212
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos171717333666999121212151515

Division C

Team1C2C3C4C5C6C7C8C9C10C11C12C13C14C15C16C17C18C
British UBritish U British U333666999121212151515181818
College of CharlestonCollege of Charleston Cougars666999121212151515181818111
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins999121212151515181818111444
Old Dominion UniversityOld Dominion University Monarchs121212151515181818111444777
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave151515181818111444777101010
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos181818111444777101010131313

Conditions — 09/21/2019 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 77%  ·  Pressure 1020.2 hPa

Temperature

81°F
↑ 84°F   ↓ 78°F
Feels like 87°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.2 kn
avg  ·  max 9.4 kn
Gusts to 19.6 kn
From E (100°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover63% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity77% Pressure1020.2 hPa Rain0.14 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 14 kn · E 11 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Tulane: a favourites’ day (+0.05)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.12 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.07
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.11 ± 0.16)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tulane by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (38 labelled days at Tulane).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →