| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
U. S. Naval Academy | Midshipmen | 10–0 |
| 2 |  |
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Seahawks | 7–3 |
| 3 |  |
Georgetown University | Hoyas | 6–4 |
| 4 |  |
Old Dominion University | Monarchs | 4–6 |
| 5 |  |
George Washington University | Colonials | 3–7 |
| 6 |  |
Christopher Newport University | Captains | 0–10 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 15,606 team race matches sailed before 2021-04-24, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 15 of 22 matches (68%) with a log-loss of 0.488 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.29 ± 0.48: a typical event, more orderly than 75% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | U. S. Naval Academy | 10.85 | 13.85 | 8–0 | 6.6 | ≥+3.00 | 2.1 | 22% |
| 2 | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 8.85 | 10.31 | 5–3 | 2.5 | +1.46 | 2.7 | 6% |
| 3 | Georgetown University | 9.55 | 9.58 | 6–4 | 5.9 | +0.03 | 0.0 | 63% |
| 4 | Old Dominion University | 9.56 | 8.33 | 2–6 | 4.0 | −1.23 | 1.7 | 97% |
| 5 | George Washington University | 9.06 | 7.58 | 1–7 | 2.9 | −1.48 | 1.8 | 98% |
| 6 | Christopher Newport University | 6.04 | 3.04 | 0–2 | 0.1 | ≤−3.00 | 0.1 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jc Hermus | U. S. Naval Academy | 3.74 | 6.74 | 8–0 | 6.6 | ≥+3.00 | 2.1 | 22% |
| Keiran James Golden | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 2.55 | 4.00 | 5–3 | 2.5 | +1.46 | 2.7 | 6% |
| Lewis Cooper | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 3.50 | 4.96 | 5–3 | 2.5 | +1.46 | 2.7 | 6% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Midshipmen | Seahawks | Hoyas | Monarchs | Colonials | Captains | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen | 5–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks | 3–2 | L | ✕ | L | W | W | W |
| Georgetown University Hoyas | 4–1 | L | W | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs | 1–4 | L | L | L | ✕ | L | W |
| George Washington University Colonials | 2–3 | L | L | L | W | ✕ | W |
| Christopher Newport University Captains | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Midshipmen | Seahawks | Hoyas | Monarchs | Colonials | Captains | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen | 5–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks | 4–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Georgetown University Hoyas | 2–3 | L | L | ✕ | L | W | W |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs | 3–2 | L | L | W | ✕ | W | W |
| George Washington University Colonials | 1–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Christopher Newport University Captains | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Colonials | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Hoyas | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Monarchs | 1-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Seahawks | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Captains | 2-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Colonials | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Captains | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Colonials | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Captains | 3-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Seahawks | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Monarchs | 2-4-5 |
| 11 | |
Midshipmen | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Hoyas | 2-4-5 |
| 12 | |
Colonials | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Captains | 3-4-5 |
| 13 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Monarchs | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Seahawks | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Colonials | 2-3-6 |
| 15 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Captains | 3-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Colonials | 3-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hoyas | 3-4-5 |
| 18 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Captains | 3-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Colonials | 4-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-6 |
| 21 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Captains | 3-4-6 |
| 22 | |
Seahawks | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Hoyas | 2-4-5 |
| 23 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Colonials | 3-4-5 |
| 24 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Captains | 3-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-4-6 |
| 26 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hoyas | 3-4-5 |
| 27 | |
Colonials | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Captains | 3-4-6 |
| 28 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Seahawks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Colonials | 1-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Captains | 3-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
U. S. Naval Academy | Midshipmen | Connor Bayless '21 Gray Benson '22 Jc Hermus '22 |
Fiona Lobon '22 Madeline Pruzan '21 Kimmie Leonard '22 |
|
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Seahawks | Gloria Kevliciute '21 Keiran James Golden '24 Lewis Cooper '21 |
Madison Bashaw '24 Ellie Sekowski '23 Sophia Taczak '21 |
|
Georgetown University | Hoyas | Jack Corbett '23 Jack Reiter '22 Scott Mais '23 |
Caroline Teare '21 Annabelle Ayer '22 Lucy Beimfohr '21 |
|
Old Dominion University | Monarchs | Bridget Groble '22 Dreugh Phillips '21 Parker Purrington '24 |
Emily Harrison '21 Makalynne Dyer '22 Katherine Barton '23 |
|
George Washington University | Colonials | Matt Logue '22 Matthew Priebe '22 Soenke Jordan '21 |
Allison Forsyth '22 Chiara Perotti Correa '22 Ruby Gordon '23 |
|
Christopher Newport University | Captains | Brian Fox '23 Javier Gonzalez Rotge '21 Luke Hayes '22 |
Emily Key '22 Carter O'Neill '24 Ethan Caldwell '22 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
