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GW Team Race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 14–1
2 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 12–3
3 George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 9–6
4 University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 7–8
5 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2–13
6 SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 1–14

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 14,383 team race matches sailed before 2020-02-29, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 39 of 45 matches (87%) with a log-loss of 0.338 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.09 ± 0.26: a typical event, more orderly than 53% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Hobart and William Smith Colleges
Statesmen		210.43
school +0.13		Kyle Easton / Aidan Morgan 3.37
Hector Guzman / Maya Weber 3.74 11–1
Jake Vickers / Anna Flaherty 3.18 9–0
Jake Vickers / Sarah Smith 3.19 5–1
Hector Guzman / Aaron Tsuchitori 3.70 3–0		75%14–1 (93%)+2.8
2U. S. Naval Academy
Midshipmen		111.44
school +0.34		Connor Bayless / Kimmie Leonard 3.74
Parker Loftus / Sally Johnson 3.59 9–3
Jc Hermus / Emma Remis 3.78 9–3
Parker Loftus / Colin Macgillivray 3.48 3–0
Jc Hermus / Jonah Hatt 3.69 3–0		90%12–3 (80%)−1.6
3George Washington University
Colonials		39.37
school +0.13, home +0.36		Matt Logue / Michael Houllahan 3.13
Cameron Feves / Allison Forsyth 2.80
Soenke Jordan / Jack Umina 2.88		55%9–6 (60%)+0.8
4University of Pennsylvania
Quakers		48.86Joseph Laforgia / Dana Hackett 3.38
Christopher Sharpless / Emelia Bartusiak
Porter Killian / Shaanti Choi-Bose 2.72		46%7–8 (47%)+0.1
5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy
Mariners		66.20
school −0.24		Garrett Lawlor / Christopher Adkins 2.52
Thomas Green / Gemma Nguyen
Patrick Modin / Sunrae Sturmer		5%2–13 (13%)+1.2
6SUNY Maritime College
Privateers		57.99Hunter Kahler / Kaitlin Brzostek 2.35
Benton Amthor / Marcus Adam
Aidan Molesky / Camille Nastasi 2.16 1–11
Cormac Murphy / Camille Nastasi 0–3		29%1–14 (7%)−3.3

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1Hobart and William Smith Colleges10.4312.5314–111.2+2.103.74%
5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy6.207.252–130.8+1.061.019%
3George Washington University9.379.739–68.2+0.360.242%
4University of Pennsylvania8.868.917–86.9+0.060.060%
2U. S. Naval Academy11.4410.4412–313.6−0.991.296%
6SUNY Maritime College7.995.241–144.3−2.745.7>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Thomas GreenU. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.912.972–130.8+1.061.019%
Joseph LaforgiaUniversity of Pennsylvania3.383.447–86.9+0.060.060%
Patrick ModinU. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.440.4512–313.6−0.991.296%
Jc HermusU. S. Naval Academy3.782.7912–313.6−0.991.296%
Aidan MoleskySUNY Maritime College2.16-0.491–113.6−2.654.6>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy100%
12Hobart and William Smith CollegesSUNY Maritime College92%
13University of PennsylvaniaGeorge Washington University38%upset
14Hobart and William Smith CollegesU. S. Merchant Marine Academy99%
15U. S. Naval AcademyUniversity of Pennsylvania93%
16George Washington UniversitySUNY Maritime College79%
17Hobart and William Smith CollegesUniversity of Pennsylvania83%
18SUNY Maritime CollegeU. S. Merchant Marine Academy89%
19U. S. Naval AcademyGeorge Washington University89%
110University of PennsylvaniaSUNY Maritime College76%
111Hobart and William Smith CollegesU. S. Naval Academy26%upset
112George Washington UniversityU. S. Merchant Marine Academy96%
113U. S. Naval AcademySUNY Maritime College97%
114University of PennsylvaniaU. S. Merchant Marine Academy94%
115Hobart and William Smith CollegesGeorge Washington University75%
216U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy99%
217Hobart and William Smith CollegesSUNY Maritime College91%
218George Washington UniversityUniversity of Pennsylvania62%
219Hobart and William Smith CollegesU. S. Merchant Marine Academy99%
220U. S. Naval AcademyUniversity of Pennsylvania93%
221George Washington UniversitySUNY Maritime College79%
222Hobart and William Smith CollegesUniversity of Pennsylvania83%
223U. S. Merchant Marine AcademySUNY Maritime College14%upset
224George Washington UniversityU. S. Naval Academy11%upset
225University of PennsylvaniaSUNY Maritime College75%
226Hobart and William Smith CollegesU. S. Naval Academy26%upset
227George Washington UniversityU. S. Merchant Marine Academy96%
228U. S. Naval AcademySUNY Maritime College97%
229University of PennsylvaniaU. S. Merchant Marine Academy93%
230Hobart and William Smith CollegesGeorge Washington University74%
331U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy99%
332Hobart and William Smith CollegesSUNY Maritime College91%
333George Washington UniversityUniversity of Pennsylvania63%
334U. S. Naval AcademySUNY Maritime College97%
335George Washington UniversityU. S. Merchant Marine Academy95%
336Hobart and William Smith CollegesUniversity of Pennsylvania83%
337George Washington UniversitySUNY Maritime College79%
338U. S. Naval AcademyHobart and William Smith Colleges74%
339University of PennsylvaniaU. S. Merchant Marine Academy92%
340Hobart and William Smith CollegesGeorge Washington University74%
341U. S. Merchant Marine AcademySUNY Maritime College16%upset
342U. S. Naval AcademyUniversity of Pennsylvania93%
343Hobart and William Smith CollegesU. S. Merchant Marine Academy98%
344U. S. Naval AcademyGeorge Washington University89%
345University of PennsylvaniaSUNY Maritime College74%

Round 1

TeamRec.StatesmenMidshipmenColonialsQuakersMarinersPrivateers
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen5–0✕WWWWW
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen4–1L✕WWWW
George Washington University Colonials2–3LL✕LWW
University of Pennsylvania Quakers3–2LLW✕WW
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners0–5LLLL✕L
SUNY Maritime College Privateers1–4LLLLW✕

Round 2

TeamRec.StatesmenMidshipmenColonialsQuakersMarinersPrivateers
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen5–0✕WWWWW
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen3–2L✕LWWW
George Washington University Colonials4–1LW✕WWW
University of Pennsylvania Quakers2–3LLL✕WW
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners1–4LLLL✕W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers0–5LLLLL✕

Round 3

TeamRec.StatesmenMidshipmenColonialsQuakersMarinersPrivateers
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen4–1✕LWWWW
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen5–0W✕WWWW
George Washington University Colonials3–2LL✕WWW
University of Pennsylvania Quakers2–3LLL✕WW
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners1–4LLLL✕W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers0–5LLLLL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-3 def. U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 4-5-6
2 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1-2-3 def. SUNY Maritime College Privateers 4-5-6
3 University of Pennsylvania Quakers 1-4-5 def. George Washington University Colonials 2-3-6
4 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1-2-4 def. U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 3-5-6
5 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-4 def. University of Pennsylvania Quakers 3-5-6
6 George Washington University Colonials 1-3-5 def. SUNY Maritime College Privateers 2-4-6
7 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1-2-3 def. University of Pennsylvania Quakers 4-5-6
8 SUNY Maritime College Privateers 1-3-5 def. U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2-4-6
9 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-6 def. George Washington University Colonials 3-4-5
10 University of Pennsylvania Quakers 1-2-3 def. SUNY Maritime College Privateers 4-5-6
11 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1-4-5 def. U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2-3-6
12 George Washington University Colonials 1-3-4 def. U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2-5-6
13 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-4 def. SUNY Maritime College Privateers 3-5-6
14 University of Pennsylvania Quakers 1-2-6 def. U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 3-4-5
15 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1-2-4 def. George Washington University Colonials 3-5-6 DNF
16 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-3 def. U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 4-5-6
17 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1-2-3 def. SUNY Maritime College Privateers 4-5-6
18 George Washington University Colonials 1-2-4 def. University of Pennsylvania Quakers 3-5-6
19 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1-2-3 def. U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 4-5-6
20 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2-3-4 def. University of Pennsylvania Quakers 1-5-6
21 George Washington University Colonials 1-2-6 def. SUNY Maritime College Privateers 3-4-5
22 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1-2-4 def. University of Pennsylvania Quakers 3-5-6
23 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 1-3-4 def. SUNY Maritime College Privateers 2-5-6
24 George Washington University Colonials 1-2-6 def. U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3-4-5
25 University of Pennsylvania Quakers 1-3-4 def. SUNY Maritime College Privateers 2-5-6
26 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1-2-5 def. U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3-4-6
27 George Washington University Colonials 1-2-5 def. U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 3-4-6
28 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-3-6 def. SUNY Maritime College Privateers 2-4-5
29 University of Pennsylvania Quakers 1-2-5 def. U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 3-4-6
30 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1-2-4 def. George Washington University Colonials 3-5-6
31 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-3-4 def. U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2-5-6
32 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1-2-4 def. SUNY Maritime College Privateers 3-5-6
33 George Washington University Colonials 1-2-5 def. University of Pennsylvania Quakers 3-4-6
34 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-5 def. SUNY Maritime College Privateers 3-4-6
35 George Washington University Colonials 1-2-6 def. U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 3-4-5
36 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1-2-4 def. University of Pennsylvania Quakers 3-5-6
37 George Washington University Colonials 2-3-4 def. SUNY Maritime College Privateers 1-5-6
38 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-5 def. Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3-4-6
39 University of Pennsylvania Quakers 1-3-5 def. U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2-4-6
40 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2-3-4 def. George Washington University Colonials 1-5-6
41 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 1-4-5 def. SUNY Maritime College Privateers 2-3-6
42 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-3 def. University of Pennsylvania Quakers 4-5-6 DNF
43 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2-3-4 def. U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 1-5-6
44 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-4 def. George Washington University Colonials 3-5-6
45 University of Pennsylvania Quakers 1-2-4 def. SUNY Maritime College Privateers 3-5-6

Conditions — 02/29/2020 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 42%  ·  Pressure 1016.4 hPa

Temperature

33°F
↑ 35°F   ↓ 28°F
Feels like 21°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
12.2 kn
avg  ·  max 14.2 kn
Gusts to 30.5 kn
From WNW (300°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover80% Sunshine8.6 hrs Humidity42% Pressure1016.4 hPa

What this breeze does at George Washington — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 14 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at George Washington in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at George Washington by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at George Washington, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →