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Carl Van Duyne MAISA Men's Singles

SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Leo Boucher '22 12 7 4 2 2 2 3 1 1 8 5 8 3 9 67
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Gavin Mcjones '23 1 12 5 17 4 3 1 13 5 1 4 2 1 7 76
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Charles Carraway '22 13 2 2 13 3 1 2 2 13 9 7 1 2 13 83
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Carrson Pearce '21 6 3 3 15 6 12 11 4 2 2 1 6 12 2 85
Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Vir Menon '20 5 4 11 7 8 6 16 15 11 3 2 11 18 4 121
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Luke Welker '21 10 11 1 9 10 16 4 3 3 12 8 5 13 18 123
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Connor Bayless '21 8 1 7 4 5 13 6 9 15 4 11 14 11 16 124
Georgetown University Georgetown University Thomas Mccann '22 14 8 8 3 16 11 13 5 10 13 14 3 6 1 125
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Jake Vickers '22 7 14 15 5 15 9 15 7 4 7 6 12 5 5 126
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Collin Porter '23 15 6 6 1 7 5 7 10 12 15 9 10 10 14 127
George Washington University George Washington University Cameron Feves '22 3 5 12 6 11 8 12 6 7 11 3 17 16 12 129
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy David Pearce '23 4 15 17 18 13 7 5 16 6 5 12 9 9 15 151
Queen's University Queen's University Robert Juhasz '21 2 18 9 11 12 4 8 18 14 14 17 16 7 3 153
George Washington University George Washington University Michael Ehnot '22 11 17 18 8 1 15 9 17 16 6 10 15 8 6 157
George Washington University George Washington University Soenke Jordan '21 9 13 10 10 9 10 17 11 8 16 18 13 14 10 168
Queen's University Queen's University William Bruce '21 17 9 13 14 17 14 10 12 17 10 15 7 15 11 181
George Washington University George Washington University Owen Timms '23 18 16 14 12 14 17 14 14 18 17 13 4 4 8 183
Hampton University Hampton University Can Dilikoglu '23 16 10 16 16 18 18 18 8 9 18 16 18 17 17 215

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A  18 boats · 14 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Leo Boucher '22St. Mary's College of Maryland14/144.634.33−0.3099th → 98th0.553%4.8 / 4.9
2Gavin Mcjones '23U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 114/143.113.84+0.7384th → 94th2.36%5.4 / 8.6
3Charles Carraway '22Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 114/143.413.86+0.4489th → 94th0.917%5.9 / 7.8
4Carrson Pearce '21U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 214/143.343.81+0.4888th → 94th1.117%6.1 / 8.1
5Vir Menon '20Christopher Newport University14/142.862.89+0.0378th → 78th0.039%8.6 / 9.3
6Luke Welker '21U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 314/142.432.96+0.5262nd → 81st1.221%8.8 / 10.5
7Connor Bayless '21U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 214/143.113.04−0.0784th → 83rd0.055%8.9 / 8.6
8Thomas Mccann '22Georgetown University14/143.682.98−0.7093rd → 81st3.083%8.9 / 7.1
9Jake Vickers '22Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 214/143.083.07−0.0183rd → 83rd0.057%9.0 / 8.7
10Collin Porter '23Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 314/142.383.19+0.8161st → 85th3.123%9.1 / 10.7
11Cameron Feves '22George Washington University Colonials 214/142.792.94+0.1575th → 80th0.144%9.2 / 9.6
12David Pearce '23U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 114/142.552.43−0.1267th → 62nd0.161%10.8 / 10.2
13Robert Juhasz '21Queen's University Gaels 214/141.69u2.25+0.5642nd → 59th1.327%10.9 / 12.4
14Michael Ehnot '22George Washington University Colonials 414/142.332.23−0.1060th → 58th0.059%11.2 / 10.8
15Soenke Jordan '21George Washington University Colonials 114/142.822.27−0.5577th → 59th1.789%12.0 / 9.4
16William Bruce '21Queen's University Gaels 114/142.162.25+0.1056th → 59th0.075%12.9 / 11.1
17Owen Timms '23George Washington University Colonials 314/142.391.79−0.6161st → 44th1.982%13.1 / 10.6
18Can Dilikoglu '23Hampton University14/141.601.12−0.4840th → 25th1.090%15.4 / 12.5

Conditions — 09/21/2019 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 56%  ·  Pressure 1023.0 hPa

Temperature

76°F
↑ 82°F   ↓ 61°F
Feels like 78°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.2 kn
avg  ·  max 7.5 kn
Gusts to 19.0 kn
From S (172°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover35% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity56% Pressure1023.0 hPa

What this breeze does at Navy — from fleet racing

Breeze: S about 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Navy in this breeze: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.10)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 9% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Navy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (114 labelled fleet-race days at Navy).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →