| School | Sailor | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | R5 | R6 | R7 | R8 | R9 | R10 | R11 | R12 | TOT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 |
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Leo Boucher '22 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 27 |
 |
Georgetown University | Thomas Mccann '22 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 29 |
 |
Christopher Newport University | Vir Menon '20 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 56 |
 |
U. S. Naval Academy | Connor Bayless '21 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 15 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 67 |
 |
George Washington University | Adam Didomizio '19 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 67 |
|
George Washington University | Cameron Feves '22 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 72 |
|
George Washington University | Soenke Jordan '21 | 9 | 13 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 7 | 81 |
|
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Liam Mccarthy '19 | BKD | 5 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 89 |
|
George Washington University | Michael Ehnot '22 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 102 |
|
U. S. Naval Academy | Tyler Fleig '19 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 111 |
|
Georgetown University | John Patrick Panarella '22 | 15 | 17 | 12 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 11 | 12 | 8 | 13 | 142 |
 |
Hampton University | Filip Stevanovic '20 | 5 | 7 | 17 | 12 | 10 | 16 | 13 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 12 | DNF | 146 |
|
Christopher Newport University | Luke Hayes '22 | 11 | 9 | 15 | 15 | 19 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 159 |
|
U. S. Naval Academy | Louis Margay '22 | 17 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 17 | 10 | 14 | 15 | 18 | 14 | 15 | 11 | 165 |
 |
Old Dominion University | John Glenn '22 | BKD | 15 | 19 | 18 | 11 | 12 | 16 | 14 | 17 | 16 | 14 | 12 | 179 |
|
Old Dominion University | Dreugh Phillips '21 | 18 | 16 | 14 | 16 | 18 | 18 | 10 | 13 | 16 | 15 | 16 | DNF | 191 |
 |
Washington College | Paul Hart '19 | 16 | 18 | 13 | 13 | 15 | 19 | 19 | 17 | 14 | 17 | 17 | 15 | 193 |
|
Georgetown University | Preston Tso '21 | 12 | 12 | 16 | 19 | 12 | 17 | 17 | DNF | 15 | 18 | 18 | DNF | 198 |
|
Christopher Newport University | Bailey Hurst '20 | 14 | 19 | 18 | 17 | 16 | 14 | 18 | DNF | DNS | DNS | DNS | DNS | 221 |
 |
University of Virginia | Caleb Flowers '22 | DNS | DNF | DNF | DNF | 20 | DNF | DNS | DNF | DNS | DNS | DNS | DNS | 251 |
Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.
Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.
The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.
| Fin | Skipper | School | Races | Rating before |
Perf. rating |
Δ | Percentile before → perf. |
Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
Avg finish actual / exp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leo Boucher '22 | St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 | 12/12 | 4.12 | 5.39 | +1.27 | 96th → 99th | 4.6 | 2% | 2.2 / 5.0 |
| 2 | Thomas Mccann '22 | Georgetown University Hoyas 3 | 12/12 | 3.44 | 5.25 | +1.80 | 89th → 99th | 9.0 | <1% | 2.4 / 6.6 |
| 3 | Vir Menon '20 | Christopher Newport University Captains 1 | 12/12 | 2.58 | 3.93 | +1.34 | 67th → 95th | 6.3 | 2% | 4.7 / 9.0 |
| 4 | Adam Didomizio '19 | George Washington University Colonials 1 | 12/12 | 2.58 | 3.52 | +0.95 | 67th → 91st | 3.4 | 6% | 5.6 / 9.0 |
| 4 | Connor Bayless '21 | U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 | 12/12 | 2.70 | 3.24 | +0.54 | 72nd → 85th | 1.1 | 9% | 5.6 / 8.6 |
| 6 | Cameron Feves '22 | George Washington University Colonials 3 | 12/12 | 2.71 | 3.30 | +0.60 | 72nd → 87th | 1.4 | 13% | 6.0 / 8.6 |
| 7 | Soenke Jordan '21 | George Washington University Colonials 2 | 12/12 | 2.74 | 2.95 | +0.20 | 73rd → 81st | 0.2 | 24% | 6.8 / 8.5 |
| 8 | Michael Ehnot '22 | George Washington University Colonials 4 | 12/12 | 2.16 | 2.54 | +0.38 | 57th → 66th | 0.6 | 23% | 8.5 / 10.2 |
| 9 | Liam Mccarthy '19 | St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 | 12/12 | 2.91 | 2.72 | −0.18 | 79th → 72nd | 0.1 | 61% | 8.6 / 8.1 |
| 10 | Tyler Fleig '19 | U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 | 12/12 | 2.00 | 2.41 | +0.41 | 52nd → 61st | 0.7 | 26% | 9.2 / 10.8 |
| 11 | John Patrick Panarella '22 | Georgetown University Hoyas 1 | 12/12 | 1.69 | 1.45 | −0.24 | 42nd → 35th | 0.3 | 56% | 11.8 / 11.5 |
| 12 | Filip Stevanovic '20 | Hampton University | 12/12 | 2.05 | 1.76 | −0.29 | 53rd → 43rd | 0.4 | 76% | 12.2 / 10.5 |
| 13 | Luke Hayes '22 | Christopher Newport University Captains 3 | 12/12 | 1.04 | 1.29 | +0.25 | 24th → 30th | 0.3 | 47% | 13.2 / 13.4 |
| 14 | Louis Margay '22 | U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3 | 12/12 | 1.02 | 1.02 | −0.01 | 23rd → 23rd | 0.0 | 54% | 13.8 / 13.5 |
| 15 | John Glenn '22 | Old Dominion University Monarchs 2 | 12/12 | 1.16 | 0.72 | −0.43 | 26th → 17th | 0.8 | 84% | 15.4 / 13.2 |
| 16 | Dreugh Phillips '21 | Old Dominion University Monarchs 1 | 12/12 | 1.41 | 0.62 | −0.79 | 34th → 16th | 3.0 | 90% | 15.9 / 12.3 |
| 17 | Paul Hart '19 | Washington College | 12/12 | 1.19 | -0.01 | −1.20 | 28th → 6th | 6.2 | 86% | 16.1 / 13.0 |
| 18 | Preston Tso '21 | Georgetown University Hoyas 2 | 12/12 | 1.55 | 0.21 | −1.35 | 39th → 9th | 7.0 | 94% | 16.5 / 12.1 |
| 19 | Bailey Hurst '20 | Christopher Newport University Captains 2 | 12/12 | 1.21 | 0.39 | −0.82 | 29th → 12th | 2.0 | 99% | 18.4 / 12.8 |
| 20 | Caleb Flowers '22 | University of Virginia | 12/12 | 1.08u | — | — | 25th → — | 3.4 | >99% | 20.9 / 13.3 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
