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SAISA Melges 24 Collegiate Offshore/Inshore @ GT

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 5 5
2 North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack 15 15
3 Florida Institute of Technology Florida Institute of Technology Panthers 16 16
4 College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars 17 17
5 Georgia Institute of Technology Georgia Institute of Technology Yellow Jackets 22 22
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 1 1 1 1 1 5
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack 3 4 3 3 2 15
Florida Institute of Technology Florida Institute of Technology Panthers 2 2 4 4 4 16
College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars 5 5 2 2 3 17
Georgia Institute of Technology Georgia Institute of Technology Yellow Jackets 4 3 5 5 5 22

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the keelboat rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.41 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 0.47); 0.28 × the mean fleet rating of the rated crew aboard; the skipper's own keelboat offset; the school's program effect. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 207 ICSA sailors with a keelboat rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The keelboat offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A  5 boats · 5 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Andreas Keswater '24University of South Florida5/51.587.00++5.4291st → 99th8.61%1.0 / 2.6
2Benjamin Usher '27North Carolina State University5/50.631.48+0.8556th → 89th1.534%3.0 / 3.4
3Brendan Smucker '25Florida Institute of Technology5/50.931.09+0.1672nd → 77th0.157%3.2 / 3.1
4Braden Johnson '24College of Charleston5/51.52u0.36−1.1691st → 41st2.685%3.4 / 2.6
5Roberto Martelli '24Georgia Institute of Technology5/50.82-0.32−1.1466th → 5th2.194%4.4 / 3.3

Conditions — 11/18/2023 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 64%  ·  Pressure 1011.5 hPa

Temperature

65°F
↑ 70°F   ↓ 55°F
Feels like 61°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.3 kn
avg  ·  max 11.4 kn
Gusts to 21.4 kn
From NW (324°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover11% Sunshine9.7 hrs Humidity64% Pressure1011.5 hPa

What this breeze does at Georgia Tech — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Georgia Tech in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.03)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Georgia Tech by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 5 labelled days at Georgia Tech, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →