Massachusetts Institute of Technology '21
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.58 (fleet 2.17) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 3–9 (25%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 | 1 | 3–9 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (12 matches) the record is 3–9 against 1.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.5). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-03-07 | MIT FJ Team Racing Invite | skipper | 1.46 | 2.61 | 3–9 | 1.5 | +1.15 | 1.4 | 15% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| MIT FJ Team Racing Invite | Skipper | TR | 22 | 23% | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 10.2 | 2.25 |
| Toni Deutsch '58 Regatta Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 10.1 | 2.10 |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.1 | 2.54 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | B | 7 | 13.9 | 1.77 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 6.2 | 0.29 |
| Morris Trophy | Skipper | A | 3 | 7.0 | 2.57 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 5 | 8.2 | 1.97 |
| Women's Showcase Final B Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.8 | 2.87 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | B | 5 | 9.8 | 1.51 |
| Regis Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 5 | 11.0 | 1.67 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 5 | 13.4 | -0.22 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
