University of South Florida '16
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 99.45 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.083 rating points from 482 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.55 (fleet 2.14) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 17–31 (35%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 1 | — | 6–12 |
| Spring 2014 | 1 | — | 11–19 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (48 matches) the record is 17–31 against 20.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−3.1). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-03-28 | Duplin | crew | 3.13 | 2.16 | 6–12 | 9.5 | −0.97 | 2.4 | 98% |
| 2014-02-22 | Frank Mendelblatt Team Race | crew | 2.54 | 2.66 | 11–19 | 10.6 | +0.12 | 0.0 | 50% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| USF Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 7.2 | 0.98 |
| St. Mary's Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 13.6 | 2.15 |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 9.2 | 2.41 |
| SAISA Women's Conference Championships Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 4.1 | 2.04 |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 5 | 15.2 | 1.55 |
| Emily Wick Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 11.1 | 2.38 |
| Eckerd Interconference | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.8 | 2.25 |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 16.2 | 0.35 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championships Women's | Crew | A, B | 18 | 8.8 | — |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Crew | A, B | 10 | 5.7 | — |
| SAISA Women's Champs Women's | Crew | A | 7 | 3.1 | — |
| SAISA South Points #3 | Skipper | A | 8 | 7.0 | 1.87 |
| SAISA Open | Crew | A | 5 | 5.2 | — |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Crew | A, B | 9 | 5.9 | — |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Crew | A | 10 | 6.4 | — |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| USF Women's Women's | Crew | A | 14 | 4.9 | — |
| SAISA Women's Champs Women's | Crew | A, B | 8 | 3.4 | — |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Crew | A | 10 | 7.8 | — |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Crew | A | 5 | 8.0 | — |
| Duplin Women's | Crew | TR | 18 | 33% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 4 | 13.8 | — |
| Charleston Women's Women's | Crew | A | 14 | 5.9 | — |
| Sperry ICSA Women’s National Championship Women's | Crew | A | 6 | 14.5 | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA Womens Fall 2014 Doublehanded Women's | Crew | A | 4 | 2.5 | — |
| SAISA Open | Crew | A | 6 | 3.5 | — |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Crew | A | 15 | 7.6 | — |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Crew | A | 18 | 11.2 | — |
| Atlantic Coast Women's Championship Women's | Crew | A | 16 | 10.9 | — |
| 35th Yale Women's Intersectional Women's | Crew | A | 14 | 9.9 | — |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| USF Women's Women's | Crew | A | 12 | 6.2 | — |
| Truxtun Umsted | Crew | A, B | 14 | 9.6 | — |
| SAISA Open | Crew | B | 4 | 3.8 | — |
| Navy Women's Women's | Crew | A | 7 | 11.0 | — |
| Frank Mendelblatt Team Race | Crew | TR | 30 | 37% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 12 | 8.8 | — |
| Charleston Women's Women's | Crew | A | 11 | 5.9 | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's | Crew | A, B | 12 | 8.3 | — |
| SAISA Women's Fall Champs Women's | Crew | A | 6 | 3.7 | — |
| SAISA Open | Crew | A | 18 | 3.9 | — |
| SAISA/MAISA | Crew | A | 14 | 4.9 | — |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Crew | A | 18 | 6.5 | — |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Crew | A | 16 | 8.2 | — |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 14 | 12.6 | — |
| USF Women's Women's | Crew | B | 14 | 10.3 | — |
| Sperry Top-Sider Women's Finals Women's | Crew | B | 18 | 9.7 | — |
| SAISA Women's Women's | Crew | B | 10 | 2.6 | — |
| SAISA Open | Crew | B | 12 | 5.7 | — |
| Navy Spring Womens Women's | Crew | B | 12 | 12.8 | — |
| MAISA/SAISA | Crew | A | 10 | 4.6 | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 10 | 10.8 | — |
| Charleston Womens Women's | Crew | B | 18 | 10.9 | — |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA South Points #4 | Skipper | B | 4 | 3.8 | 0.92 |
| SAISA South Points #3 | Crew | B | 7 | 1.7 | — |
| SAISA/MAISA | Crew | A, B | 20 | 4.3 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
