University of Vermont '20
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.89 (fleet 2.61) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 1–11 (8%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 1–11 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (12 matches) the record is 1–11 against 2.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.9). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-03-25 | Duplin Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.25 | 0.86 | 1–11 | 2.9 | −1.39 | 1.7 | 97% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 12.1 | 2.35 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 10.6 | 2.70 |
| The Toni Deutsch MIT '58 Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 8.9 | 3.00 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | B | 7 | 9.9 | 2.80 |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 9.9 | 2.19 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 5 | 12.4 | 2.26 |
| Amanda Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 4.7 | 3.31 |
| 2017 Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 9.6 | 2.70 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 8.1 | 2.27 |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 9.1 | 2.81 |
| Duplin Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 12 | 8% | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Backup Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 10.6 | 2.59 |
| Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 10.3 | 1.99 |
| Toni Deutsch Regatta Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 10.2 | 1.09 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.0 | 3.19 |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 6.2 | 2.58 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 10.0 | 2.41 |
| Amanda Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 4.6 | 3.16 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Annie Spence |  Barnstable HS |
'16 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
