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Central Series #1

SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 1 A 1 1 1 8 1 1 13 Frank Reeg '19
Sydney Clays '21
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks A 4 2 5 7 2 3 23 Jennifer Killian '19
Madeline Lark '20
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 1 B 3 3 4 2 10 4 26 Alexander Bowen '20
Megan Laurie '20
Brown University Brown University Bears A 7 8 6 1 9 2 33 Gabriel Hannon '20
Catherine Mcclenahan '21
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks B 6 9 2 5 4 7 33 Caroline King '21 [1-3]
Grace Vincens '20 [4-6]
Allison Gilson '21 [1-3]
Emma Sexton '20 [4-6]
University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen B 2 7 3 12 3 9 36 Jack Eberhardt '21
Aylla Farias '21
Brown University Brown University Bears B 5 5 10 3 5 8 36 Aryaman Dutta '22
Justin Chiang '21
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 2 A 10 11 7 4 7 6 45 Maeve Glancy '21
Maya Stephani '20
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 3 A BKD 10 9 10 6 5 48 Braden Foster '19
Rachael Mckeown '21
University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen A 9 4 8 6 11 11 49 Noah Brayer '18
Justin Stott '20
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 3 B 8 6 11 9 12 10 56 Auguste Pizzano '21
Thomas Dunn '21
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 2 B DNS 12 12 11 8 12 70 Kyle Boucher '21
William Tagliamonte '21
University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs A DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 90 No Show
No Show
University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs B DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 90 No Show
No Show
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2011 (22 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears222333
University of Massachusetts at AmherstUniversity of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen777888
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 1333444
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 2444555
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 3555666
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks666777
University of Massachusetts at DartmouthUniversity of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs888999

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears999101010
University of Massachusetts at AmherstUniversity of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen141414151515
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 1101010161616
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 2111111121212
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 3121212131313
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks131313141414
University of Massachusetts at DartmouthUniversity of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs151515222

Conditions — 03/18/2018 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 48%  ·  Pressure 1011.1 hPa

Temperature

24°F
↑ 30°F   ↓ 13°F
Feels like 14°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.2 kn
avg  ·  max 8.9 kn
Gusts to 18.9 kn
From NW (316°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity48% Pressure1011.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Mass Maritime: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.00 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.05
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.08 ± 0.25)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Mass Maritime by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (46 labelled days at Mass Maritime).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →