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Midweek Firefly, Bobby Berliner Trophy

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 1 6 6
2 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 13 13
3 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 2 17 17
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 6 Zachary Bresnick '21
Jon Ewing '21
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2 2 3 2 2 2 13 Paige Omura '17
James Peraire-Bueno '19
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 2 3 3 2 3 3 3 17 Erin Coyne '19
Alaina Muchnick '21
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2013 (14 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers555555
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies 1222222
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies 2202020202020

Conditions — 04/20/2017 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 77%  ·  Pressure 1020.0 hPa

Temperature

52°F
↑ 57°F   ↓ 48°F
Feels like 48°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.7 kn
avg  ·  max 9.7 kn
Gusts to 19.4 kn
From ENE (71°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover87% Sunshine9.7 hrs Humidity77% Pressure1020.0 hPa

What this breeze does at MIT — from fleet racing

Breeze: E about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at MIT in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.04)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at MIT by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (112 labelled fleet-race days at MIT).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →