| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Roger Williams University | Hawks | 9–0 |
| 2 |  |
Massachusetts Maritime Academy | Buccaneers | 6–3 |
| 3 |  |
Olin College of Engineering | Phoenix | 2–7 |
| 4 |  |
Bates College | Bobcats | 1–8 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 18,137 team race matches sailed before 2022-04-03, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 16 of 18 matches (89%) with a log-loss of 0.256 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.53 ± 0.41: an orderly event, more orderly than 94% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roger Williams University Hawks | 1 | 6.66 school +0.36 | Emmett Nevel / Callum Robbins 1.96 Luke Hosek / Izaiah Farr 2.03 Chase Reynolds / Ruby Hope 2.29 | 91% | 9–0 (100%) | +0.8 |
| 2 | Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers | 2 | 5.09 school −0.06, home +0.34 | Stephen Poirier / Auguste Pizzano 1.58 Tyler Egeli / Jewelnguyen Huynh Andy Leshaw / Jack Clasby | 59% | 6–3 (67%) | +0.7 |
| 3 | Olin College of Engineering Phoenix | 4 | 3.43 | Alexander Miller / Sparsh Bansal James Jagielski / Thomas Jagielski Colin Snow / Malvina Clavering | 19% | 2–7 (22%) | +0.2 |
| 4 | Bates College Bobcats | 3 | 3.91 | Jack Valentino / Sam Gilman 1.19 Greta Shuster / Anders Landgren Ted Lutton / Claudia Mabley | 30% | 1–8 (11%) | −1.7 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roger Williams University | 6.66 | 9.66 | 9–0 | 8.2 | ≥+3.00 | 1.2 | 42% |
| 2 | Massachusetts Maritime Academy | 5.09 | 5.60 | 6–3 | 5.3 | +0.51 | 0.2 | 46% |
| 3 | Olin College of Engineering | 3.43 | 3.63 | 2–7 | 1.8 | +0.19 | 0.0 | 56% |
| 4 | Bates College | 3.91 | 2.38 | 1–8 | 2.7 | −1.53 | 1.7 | 98% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Poirier | Massachusetts Maritime Academy | 1.58 | 2.09 | 6–3 | 5.3 | +0.51 | 0.2 | 46% |
| Andy Leshaw | Massachusetts Maritime Academy | 0.93 | 1.44 | 6–3 | 5.3 | +0.51 | 0.2 | 46% |
| Alexander Miller | Olin College of Engineering | 0.27 | 0.47 | 2–7 | 1.8 | +0.19 | 0.0 | 56% |
| Jack Valentino | Bates College | 1.19 | -0.34 | 1–8 | 2.7 | −1.53 | 1.7 | 98% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Hawks | Buccaneers | Phoenix | Bobcats | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roger Williams University Hawks | 3–0 | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers | 2–1 | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Olin College of Engineering Phoenix | 1–2 | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Bates College Bobcats | 0–3 | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Hawks | Buccaneers | Phoenix | Bobcats | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roger Williams University Hawks | 3–0 | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers | 2–1 | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Olin College of Engineering Phoenix | 1–2 | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Bates College Bobcats | 0–3 | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Hawks | Buccaneers | Phoenix | Bobcats | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roger Williams University Hawks | 3–0 | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers | 2–1 | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Olin College of Engineering Phoenix | 0–3 | L | L | ✕ | L |
| Bates College Bobcats | 1–2 | L | L | W | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Buccaneers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Phoenix | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Hawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bobcats | 3-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Hawks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Buccaneers | 1-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Phoenix | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Bobcats | 2-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Hawks | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Phoenix | 1-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Buccaneers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bobcats | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Buccaneers | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Phoenix | 2-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Hawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bobcats | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Hawks | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Buccaneers | 2-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Phoenix | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bobcats | 3-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Hawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Phoenix | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Buccaneers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bobcats | 3-4-5 |
| 13 | |
Buccaneers | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Phoenix | 2-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Hawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bobcats | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Hawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Buccaneers | 3-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Bobcats | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Phoenix | 1-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Hawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Phoenix | 3-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Buccaneers | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Bobcats | 2-4-5 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Roger Williams University | Hawks | Chase Reynolds '23 Emmett Nevel '25 Luke Hosek '24 |
Ruby Hope '25 Callum Robbins '22 Izaiah Farr '23 |
|
Massachusetts Maritime Academy | Buccaneers | Andy Leshaw '25 Stephen Poirier '22 Tyler Egeli '24 |
Jack Clasby '25 Auguste Pizzano '21 Jewelnguyen Huynh '23 |
|
Olin College of Engineering | Phoenix | Alexander Miller '22 Colin Snow '22 James Jagielski '25 |
Sparsh Bansal '22 Malvina Clavering '25 Thomas Jagielski '22 |
|
Bates College | Bobcats | Greta Shuster '25 Jack Valentino '22 Ted Lutton '24 |
Anders Landgren '25 Sam Gilman '22 Claudia Mabley '24 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
