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Dave Perry Team Race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Brown University Brown University Bears 1 6–2
2 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 6–2
3 Brown University Brown University Bears 2 5–3
4 Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 3–5
5 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 0–8

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 21,790 team race matches sailed before 2023-10-28, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 10 of 12 matches (83%) with a log-loss of 0.409 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.43 ± 0.57: a typical event, more orderly than 88% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Brown University
Bears 1		19.08
school +0.26		Connor Macken / Sierra Bornheim 2.52
Mason Stang / Olivia Miller 3.20
Leyton Borcherding / Caroline Keeffe-Jones 3.09		72%5–1 (83%)+0.7
3Brown University
Bears 2		38.40
school +0.26		Martins Atilla / Talia Levine
Katherine Mcnamara / Brianna Ross 2.66
Ethan Simpson / Janelle Li 2.82		52%4–2 (67%)+0.9
4Yale University
Bulldogs		28.85
school +0.28, home +0.43		Megan Grimes / Julia Miller 2.72
Nicholas Davies / Jessi Avila-Shah 2.82
Alex Adams / Mary Madaus 2.59		65%3–3 (50%)−0.9
5University of Rhode Island
Rams		46.71Olin Guck / Gabriella Cappelli 2.17
Adam Strobridge / Jane Lally
Max Sigel / Lily Moore 2.40		12%0–6 (0%)−0.7

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1Brown University Bears 19.089.845–14.3+0.760.444%
3Brown University Bears 28.409.134–23.1+0.730.437%
4Yale University Bulldogs8.858.123–33.9−0.730.590%
5University of Rhode Island Rams6.713.710–60.7≤−3.001.0>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Martins AtillaBrown University2.563.294–23.1+0.730.437%
Nicholas DaviesYale University2.822.083–33.9−0.730.590%
Alex AdamsYale University2.591.853–33.9−0.730.590%
Adam StrobridgeUniversity of Rhode Island2.06-0.940–60.7≤−3.001.0>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Brown University Bears 2Brown University Bears 132%upset
13Brown University Bears 1Yale University Bulldogs56%
14Brown University Bears 2University of Rhode Island Rams85%
16Brown University Bears 1University of Rhode Island Rams92%
18Yale University BulldogsUniversity of Rhode Island Rams89%
110Brown University Bears 2Yale University Bulldogs39%upset
211Brown University Bears 1Brown University Bears 266%
213Brown University Bears 1Yale University Bulldogs56%
214Brown University Bears 2University of Rhode Island Rams85%
216Brown University Bears 1University of Rhode Island Rams91%
218Yale University BulldogsUniversity of Rhode Island Rams89%
220Yale University BulldogsBrown University Bears 260%

Round 1

TeamRec.1Hawks2BulldogsRams
Brown University Bears 15–3✕L✕WW
Roger Williams University Hawks4–0W✕WWW
Brown University Bears 25–3✕L✕WW
Yale University Bulldogs1–3LLL✕W
University of Rhode Island Rams0–4LLLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.1Hawks2BulldogsRams
Brown University Bears 16–2✕W✕LW
Roger Williams University Hawks2–2L✕LWW
Brown University Bears 26–2✕W✕LW
Yale University Bulldogs2–2WLW✕W
University of Rhode Island Rams0–4LLLL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Brown University Bears 2 1-2-5 def. Brown University Bears 1 3-4-6
2 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-5 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 3-4-6
3 Brown University Bears 1 1-2-5 def. Yale University Bulldogs 3-4-6
4 Brown University Bears 2 1-2-5 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 3-4-6
5 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-4 def. Yale University Bulldogs 3-5-6
6 Brown University Bears 1 1-2-5 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 3-4-6
7 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-4 def. Brown University Bears 2 3-5-6
8 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-3 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 4-5-6
9 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-6 def. Brown University Bears 1 3-4-5
10 Brown University Bears 2 1-3-5 def. Yale University Bulldogs 2-4-6
11 Brown University Bears 1 2-3-4 def. Brown University Bears 2 1-5-6
12 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-3 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 4-5-6
13 Brown University Bears 1 2-3-4 def. Yale University Bulldogs 1-5-6
14 Brown University Bears 2 1-2-3 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 4-5-6
15 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-3-4 def. Yale University Bulldogs 2-5-6
16 Brown University Bears 1 1-2-5 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 3-4-6
17 Brown University Bears 2 1-2-6 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 3-4-5
18 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-6 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 3-4-5
19 Brown University Bears 1 1-2-4 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 3-5-6
20 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-6 def. Brown University Bears 2 3-4-5

Conditions — 10/28/2023 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 77%  ·  Pressure 1014.8 hPa

Temperature

71°F
↑ 76°F   ↓ 61°F
Feels like 73°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.1 kn
avg  ·  max 7.7 kn
Gusts to 15.7 kn
From WSW (257°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover10% Sunshine10.4 hrs Humidity77% Pressure1014.8 hPa

What this breeze does at Yale — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Yale in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.05)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Yale by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (69 labelled fleet-race days at Yale).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →