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Staake Trophy

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Boston University Boston University Terriers 16–4
2 Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 15–5
3 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 13–7
4 University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 4–16
5 Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 2–18

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 20,149 team race matches sailed before 2023-03-25, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 41 of 50 matches (82%) with a log-loss of 0.442 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.19 ± 0.27: a typical event, more orderly than 65% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Boston University
Terriers		28.70
home +0.40		Micky Munns / Matthew Hamelsky 2.65
Tyler Mowry / Madeline Stull 2.99
Noah Robitshek / Abigail Murray 2.70 11–4
Elliott Mendenhall / Catherine Shakin 2.37 5–0		69%16–4 (80%)+2.2
2Connecticut College
Camels		19.55
school +0.36		Cj Mckenna / Alexandra Tillinghast 3.13
Thomas Whittemore / Cecilia Bohan 3.19
Walter Henry / Clifton Carragher 2.85		85%15–5 (75%)−2.0
3University of Rhode Island
Rams		37.71
school −0.11		Jonathan Riley / Abbie Chipps 2.34
Joshua Bartoszuk / Sadie Thomas 2.56
Kerem Erkmen / Miles Bailey 3.08 3–7
Tyler Nash / Zachary Severson 2.63 10–0		45%13–7 (65%)+3.9
4University of Vermont
Catamounts		46.94
school −0.06		Christian Cushman / Alice Thompson 2.26
Connell Phillipps / Maddy Saffer 2.68
Ryan Hamilton / Will Broseman 2.02		29%4–16 (20%)−1.9
5Salve Regina University
Seahawks		56.54
school −0.28		Nils Tullberg / Kate Johnson 2.42
Emil Tullberg / Shannon Gondoly 2.55
Olivia Lowthian / Caelan Haddock 1.78		21%2–18 (10%)−2.3

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
3University of Rhode Island7.718.7313–79.1+1.022.94%
1Boston University8.709.4716–413.7+0.771.216%
4University of Vermont6.946.324–165.9−0.620.891%
2Connecticut College9.558.8315–517.0−0.721.194%
5Salve Regina University6.545.562–184.3−0.981.596%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Elliott MendenhallBoston University2.375.375–04.4≥+3.000.950%
Joshua BartoszukUniversity of Rhode Island2.563.5913–79.1+1.022.94%
Kerem ErkmenUniversity of Rhode Island3.083.443–72.3+0.360.242%
Thomas WhittemoreConnecticut College3.192.4715–517.0−0.721.194%
Walter HenryConnecticut College2.852.1315–517.0−0.721.194%
Nils TullbergSalve Regina University2.421.442–184.3−0.981.596%
Emil TullbergSalve Regina University2.551.572–184.3−0.981.596%
Olivia LowthianSalve Regina University1.780.812–184.3−0.981.596%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Boston UniversityUniversity of Rhode Island71%
12University of VermontSalve Regina University61%
13Connecticut CollegeUniversity of Rhode Island84%
14Boston UniversityUniversity of Vermont86%
15University of Rhode IslandSalve Regina University72%
16Connecticut CollegeBoston University68%
17University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Vermont63%
18Connecticut CollegeSalve Regina University96%
19Boston UniversitySalve Regina University87%
110Connecticut CollegeUniversity of Vermont93%
211Connecticut CollegeSalve Regina University95%
212Boston UniversityUniversity of Vermont86%
213University of Rhode IslandSalve Regina University72%
214Boston UniversityConnecticut College32%upset
215Salve Regina UniversityUniversity of Vermont40%upset
216Connecticut CollegeUniversity of Rhode Island84%
217Boston UniversitySalve Regina University87%
218University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Vermont63%
219Connecticut CollegeUniversity of Vermont93%
220Boston UniversityUniversity of Rhode Island70%
321University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Vermont63%
322Connecticut CollegeBoston University68%
323University of VermontSalve Regina University60%
324Connecticut CollegeUniversity of Rhode Island84%
325Boston UniversityUniversity of Vermont86%
326University of Rhode IslandSalve Regina University72%
327University of VermontConnecticut College7%upset
328Boston UniversitySalve Regina University87%
329University of Rhode IslandBoston University30%upset
330Connecticut CollegeSalve Regina University95%
431Connecticut CollegeUniversity of Rhode Island83%
432Boston UniversitySalve Regina University87%
433University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Vermont63%
434Connecticut CollegeSalve Regina University95%
435Boston UniversityUniversity of Vermont86%
436University of Rhode IslandSalve Regina University72%
437University of VermontSalve Regina University59%
438Boston UniversityConnecticut College32%upset
439University of Rhode IslandBoston University30%upset
440Connecticut CollegeUniversity of Vermont93%
541University of Rhode IslandConnecticut College17%upset
542Boston UniversitySalve Regina University87%
543University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Vermont63%
544Connecticut CollegeSalve Regina University95%
545Boston UniversityUniversity of Vermont86%
546University of Rhode IslandSalve Regina University72%
547Salve Regina UniversityUniversity of Vermont41%upset
548Boston UniversityConnecticut College32%upset
549Boston UniversityUniversity of Rhode Island70%
550Connecticut CollegeUniversity of Vermont93%

Round 1

TeamRec.TerriersCamelsRamsCatamountsSeahawks
Boston University Terriers3–1✕LWWW
Connecticut College Camels4–0W✕WWW
University of Rhode Island Rams2–2LL✕WW
University of Vermont Catamounts1–3LLL✕W
Salve Regina University Seahawks0–4LLLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.TerriersCamelsRamsCatamountsSeahawks
Boston University Terriers4–0✕WWWW
Connecticut College Camels3–1L✕WWW
University of Rhode Island Rams2–2LL✕WW
University of Vermont Catamounts0–4LLL✕L
Salve Regina University Seahawks1–3LLLW✕

Round 3

TeamRec.TerriersCamelsRamsCatamountsSeahawks
Boston University Terriers2–2✕LLWW
Connecticut College Camels3–1W✕WLW
University of Rhode Island Rams3–1WL✕WW
University of Vermont Catamounts2–2LWL✕W
Salve Regina University Seahawks0–4LLLL✕

Round 4

TeamRec.TerriersCamelsRamsCatamountsSeahawks
Boston University Terriers3–1✕WLWW
Connecticut College Camels3–1L✕WWW
University of Rhode Island Rams3–1WL✕WW
University of Vermont Catamounts1–3LLL✕W
Salve Regina University Seahawks0–4LLLL✕

Round 5

TeamRec.TerriersCamelsRamsCatamountsSeahawks
Boston University Terriers4–0✕WWWW
Connecticut College Camels2–2L✕LWW
University of Rhode Island Rams3–1LW✕WW
University of Vermont Catamounts0–4LLL✕L
Salve Regina University Seahawks1–3LLLW✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Boston University Terriers 1-2-5 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 3-4-6
2 University of Vermont Catamounts 1-2-6 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 3-4-5
3 Connecticut College Camels 1-2-4 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 3-5-6
4 Boston University Terriers 1-2-3 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 4-5-6
5 University of Rhode Island Rams 1-2-3 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 4-5-6
6 Connecticut College Camels 1-3-5 def. Boston University Terriers 2-4-6
7 University of Rhode Island Rams 2-3-4 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 1-5-6
8 Connecticut College Camels 1-2-4 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 3-5-6
9 Boston University Terriers 1-2-6 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 3-4-5
10 Connecticut College Camels 1-2-3 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 4-5-6
11 Connecticut College Camels 1-2-5 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 3-4-6
12 Boston University Terriers 1-2-5 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 3-4-6
13 University of Rhode Island Rams 1-3-5 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 2-4-6
14 Boston University Terriers 1-2-5 def. Connecticut College Camels 3-4-6
15 Salve Regina University Seahawks 2-3-5 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 1-4-6
16 Connecticut College Camels 1-3-5 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 2-4-6
17 Boston University Terriers 1-2-3 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 4-5-6
18 University of Rhode Island Rams 1-2-6 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 3-4-5
19 Connecticut College Camels 2-3-4 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 1-5-6
20 Boston University Terriers 1-2-5 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 3-4-6
21 University of Rhode Island Rams 1-2-5 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 3-4-6
22 Connecticut College Camels 1-3-6 def. Boston University Terriers 2-4-5
23 University of Vermont Catamounts 1-3-6 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 2-4-5
24 Connecticut College Camels 1-2-5 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 3-4-6
25 Boston University Terriers 1-2-6 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 3-4-5
26 University of Rhode Island Rams 1-2-4 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 3-5-6
27 University of Vermont Catamounts 1-4-5 def. Connecticut College Camels 2-3-6
28 Boston University Terriers 1-3-4 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 2-5-6
29 University of Rhode Island Rams 1-3-4 def. Boston University Terriers 2-5-6
30 Connecticut College Camels 1-2-5 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 3-4-6
31 Connecticut College Camels 1-3-5 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 2-4-6
32 Boston University Terriers 1-3-5 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 2-4-6
33 University of Rhode Island Rams 2-3-4 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 1-5-6
34 Connecticut College Camels 1-2-4 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 3-5-6
35 Boston University Terriers 1-2-4 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 3-5-6
36 University of Rhode Island Rams 1-2-4 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 3-5-6
37 University of Vermont Catamounts 1-3-5 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 2-4-6
38 Boston University Terriers 1-2-3 def. Connecticut College Camels 4-5-6
39 University of Rhode Island Rams 1-4-5 def. Boston University Terriers 2-3-6
40 Connecticut College Camels 1-2-4 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 3-5-6
41 University of Rhode Island Rams 1-2-6 def. Connecticut College Camels 3-4-5
42 Boston University Terriers 1-2-4 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 3-5-6
43 University of Rhode Island Rams 1-2-6 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 3-4-5
44 Connecticut College Camels 1-2-6 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 3-4-5
45 Boston University Terriers 1-2-5 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 3-4-6
46 University of Rhode Island Rams 1-2-3 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 4-5-6
47 Salve Regina University Seahawks 2-3-4 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 1-5-6
48 Boston University Terriers 1-4-5 def. Connecticut College Camels 2-3-6
49 Boston University Terriers 1-2-3 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 4-5-6
50 Connecticut College Camels 1-2-3 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 4-5-6

Conditions — 03/25/2023 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 72%  ·  Pressure 1019.6 hPa

Temperature

40°F
↑ 41°F   ↓ 38°F
Feels like 30°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
11.9 kn
avg  ·  max 15.1 kn
Gusts to 26.2 kn
From ESE (102°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine1.0 hrs Humidity72% Pressure1019.6 hPa Rain0.04 in

What this breeze does at Boston University — from fleet racing

Breeze: E about 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Boston University in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.05)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Boston University by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (56 labelled fleet-race days at Boston University).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →