University of Vermont '19
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.29 (fleet 1.79) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 1–12 (8%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 1–11 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 0–1 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (12 matches) the record is 1–11 against 2.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.9). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-03-25 | Duplin Women's Team Race | skipper | 1.44 | 0.05 | 1–11 | 2.9 | −1.39 | 1.7 | 97% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | B | 7 | 9.4 | 1.84 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 8.9 | 1.16 |
| Duplin Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 12 | 8% | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Susan Rogers '75 Memorial Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.8 | 1.89 |
| 74th Pine Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 16 | 6.1 | — |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern Series 7 | Skipper | B | 16 | 12.1 | -0.40 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 11.4 | 1.32 |
| Joseph R. Duplin Regatta Women's | Skipper | TR | 7 | 0% | — |
| Central Series 3 Spring 2016 | Skipper | A | 6 | 10.2 | 0.98 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Providence College Invite | Skipper | B | 10 | 5.3 | 1.73 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Samantha Brown |  Champlain VUHS |
'15 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
