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# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 2 32 33 65
2 University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 1 40 36 76
3 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 2 77 45 122
4 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 1 67 68 135
5 University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2 134 54 188
6 University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1 135 64 199
7 California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 124 93 217
8 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 2 92 128 220
9 University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 117 105 222
10 California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 2 97 MRP 168 MRP 265 MRP
11 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 1 149 122 271
12 Banana Slug's Banana Slug's Banana Slug's 174 MRP 162 MRP 336 MRP
13 University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 1 144 204 348
14 University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 166 187 353
15 University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 3 202 162 364
16 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 3 142 227 369
17 California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Dolphins 201 179 380
18 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 4 191 202 393
19 University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 3 225 208 433
20 University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 2 216 218 434
21 University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters 1 195 247 442
22 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 3 228 253 481
23 University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters 2 268 246 514
24 San Diego State University San Diego State University Aztecs 253 276 529
25 California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 1 275 254 529
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 2 1 1 2 1 10 1 1 2 1 4 1 7 32 Upamanyu Dutta '20
Sabrina Moreno '19
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 1 2 2 1 9 3 2 4 4 2 3 6 2 40 Peter Wong '18
Lorea Mendiguren '20
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 1 9 11 5 3 6 3 7 6 6 5 5 1 67 Ben Brough '19
Helen Payne '19
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 2 12 6 6 7 2 5 10 3 9 8 3 6 77 Liam Hood '20
Nathan Dryer '20
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 2 3 17 12 6 9 14 3 11 4 2 8 3 92 Yan Rui Goheen '17
Meagan Montalto '20
California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 2 10 3 4 2 1 10 9 1 13 10 9 5 97 MRP
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 7 4 9 5 4 7 15 7 14 9 24 12 117 Ian Markowitz '17
Katey Hayes '20
California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 4 7 16 10 11 6 12 13 3 12 10 20 124 Julian Martinez-Prado '19
Ronan Lundegaard '19
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2 11 8 3 4 15 15 2 17 16 14 4 25 134 Laura Roudebush '18
Maddy Kuhn '20
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1 8 9 18 13 7 8 22 10 5 13 14 8 135 Nicholas Lenz Lenz '19 [1-12]
Mingyi Chen '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Georgia Potter '18 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 3 6 16 11 15 8 19 8 19 11 18 7 4 142 Thomas Niemisto '17
Catherine Kerman '19
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 1 5 5 15 8 12 9 11 15 19 21 11 13 144 Jayden Potter '21
Jackie Shaff '19
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 1 13 DSQ 7 19 5 13 5 12 17 1 21 10 149 Erika Barth '16
Laura Furtado '18
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 17 19 10 14 24 11 6 9 7 17 13 19 166 David Hopkins '19
Melissa Jaffe '20
Banana Slug's Banana Slug's Banana Slug's 20 10 13 11 21 16 17 5 8 7 15 11 174 MRP
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 4 14 14 17 17 18 17 21 16 18 15 2 22 191 Grant Lin '17
Giulianna Miseo '20
University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters 1 21 12 8 12 14 24 23 24 20 6 17 14 195 Drake Baldwin '20 [1-12]
James Bohne '20 [1-6]
Christian Parizea '18 [7-12]
California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Dolphins 16 22 24 23 13 4 16 14 23 25 12 9 201 Andrew Clements '17
Kinsey Cohen '17
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 3 15 15 19 16 16 12 DNS DNS 10 11 19 17 202 Ankit Rastogi '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Thomas Garcia '19 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
Kristopher Wong '18 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 2 18 13 14 20 20 22 13 21 21 16 20 18 216 James Letchinger '20
Brianna Pinto '20
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 3 22 18 20 18 17 21 18 20 12 20 23 16 225 Joshua Leung '18
Grace Moore '18
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 3 19 21 23 21 19 18 14 18 15 19 18 23 228 Brett Farrell '17 [1-12]
Alexander Bittner '19 [1-2, 7-8]
Nathan Tessier '19 [3-6, 9-12]
San Diego State University San Diego State University Aztecs 23 24 25 25 25 25 19 8 24 24 16 15 253 Christian Reed '17 [1-6]
Thomas Rall '18 [7-12]
Jack Doheny '17 [1-6]
Christian Reed '17 [7-12]
University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters 2 24 20 22 24 23 20 20 22 25 22 22 24 268 Jesse Campbell '19 [1-12]
Christian Parizea '18 [1-6]
Stacey Agustin '18 [7-12]
California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 1 DNS 23 21 22 22 23 24 23 22 23 25 21 275 Alex Demmler '19
Kaela Riha '19
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 2 1 3 7 1 6 4 2 2 3 2 1 1 33 Will Paulsen '19
Mackenzie Freeman '18
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 1 7 1 1 3 4 5 4 1 1 3 4 2 36 Paul Chyz '18 [1-12]
Clifford Lester '19 [1-6]
Hope Modugno '18 [7-12]
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 2 4 4 2 7 1 1 5 3 4 5 6 3 45 Alyson Crowley '20
James Kerman '17
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2 6 2 5 5 2 3 8 5 7 1 5 5 54 Abraham Dearden '20
Zoe Hessler '18
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1 3 6 3 4 5 2 10 6 6 6 7 6 64 Leah Ford '19 [1-12]
Kylie Sullivan '17 [1-6]
Grace Phillips '18 [7-12]
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 1 5 11 4 2 3 16 1 11 2 4 2 7 68 Joseph Lausten '18
Belle Lemoine '19
California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 8 7 12 9 8 7 3 10 11 7 3 8 93 Kian Patrick '20
Kyle Hunt '19
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 2 5 9 6 7 18 9 17 8 10 10 4 105 Cole Fargo '18
Gina Canzona '19
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 1 10 12 6 12 12 9 7 12 13 9 9 11 122 Samuel Rohrbach '17
Christopher Steefel '18
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 2 9 10 10 18 17 10 12 4 5 12 12 9 128 Natalie Hopper '19
Robyn Gillum '18
Banana Slug's Banana Slug's Banana Slug's 11 17 11 11 13 17 6 16 10 8 8 14 162 MRP
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 3 14 15 14 13 19 11 11 9 9 13 15 19 162 Hallie Muller '20
Arjun Boddu '18
California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 2 12 8 8 8 10 12 21 13 14 16 11 15 168 MRP
California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Dolphins 13 14 17 22 14 6 19 14 17 11 19 13 179 Charles Winter '17
Kenneth Migliardi '18
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 23 22 15 19 9 8 23 7 12 15 16 18 187 Matthieu Laurent '17
Avery Burke '20
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 4 17 18 13 15 11 13 14 23 16 18 20 24 202 Jason Barr '17 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Chase Verstuyft '17 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
Murtaza Jafrani '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 1 15 9 16 20 20 21 25 15 18 21 14 10 204 Joseph Naro '18
Sierra Madden '19
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 3 16 16 18 10 22 15 13 22 23 20 17 16 208 Burak Kocal '18
Bradyn O'Connor '19
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 2 21 13 19 14 16 14 18 21 22 22 18 20 218 Picasso Vasquez '20
Jenna Rutledge '19
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 3 18 23 20 16 18 20 15 20 15 17 24 21 227 Andrew Lozovoy '17
Nick Bonafede '17
University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters 2 25 20 23 23 23 23 16 18 20 25 13 17 246 Victor Ya '18
Brian Newcomer '19
University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters 1 24 21 21 21 21 19 22 19 21 14 21 23 247 Emily Guy '18 [1-12]
Lucas Erb '20 [1-6]
Madeline Bachus '19 [7-12]
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 3 19 19 25 17 15 24 24 25 19 19 22 25 253 Fisher Price '20 [1-12]
Ellen Carlander '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Jerod Flores '19 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 1 22 25 24 25 25 25 17 8 24 24 23 12 254 Julia Jaynes '19
Shyon Seyed-Emami '18
San Diego State University San Diego State University Aztecs 20 24 22 24 24 22 20 24 DNS 23 25 22 276 Gillian Dean '19
Emilia Cloutman '20
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.600+0.60
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2012 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears 1242424242424838383838383
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears 2123123123123123123123123123123123123
California Maritime AcademyCalifornia Maritime Academy Keelhaulers111111111111
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 1333333333333
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 2444444444444
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 3103103103103103103103103103103103103
California State University Channel IslandsCalifornia State University Channel Islands Dolphins999999999999
California State University Long BeachCalifornia State University Long Beach 49ers 1888888888888
California State University Long BeachCalifornia State University Long Beach 49ers 2222222222222
San Diego State UniversitySan Diego State University Aztecs373737373737373737373737
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans 1370370370370370370370370370370370370
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans 2371371371371371371371371371371371371
University of California at DavisUniversity of California at Davis Aggies 1474747474747474747474747
University of California at DavisUniversity of California at Davis Aggies 2484848484848484848484848
University of California at DavisUniversity of California at Davis Aggies 3161616161616161616161616
University of California at IrvineUniversity of California at Irvine Anteaters 1252525252525252525252525
University of California at IrvineUniversity of California at Irvine Anteaters 2262626262626262626262626
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1282828282828282828282828
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2272727272727272727272727
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 3128128128128128128128128128128128128
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 1292929292929292929292929
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 2303030303030303030303030
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 3292292292292292292292292292292292292
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 4295295295295295295295295295295295295
Banana Slug'sBanana Slug's Banana Slug's343434343434343434343434

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears 1242424242424838383838383
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears 2123123123123123123123123123123123123
California Maritime AcademyCalifornia Maritime Academy Keelhaulers111111111111
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 1333333333333
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 2444444444444
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 3103103103103103103103103103103103103
California State University Channel IslandsCalifornia State University Channel Islands Dolphins999999999999
California State University Long BeachCalifornia State University Long Beach 49ers 1888888888888
California State University Long BeachCalifornia State University Long Beach 49ers 2222222222222
San Diego State UniversitySan Diego State University Aztecs373737373737373737373737
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans 1370370370370370370370370370370370370
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans 2371371371371371371371371371371371371
University of California at DavisUniversity of California at Davis Aggies 1474747474747474747474747
University of California at DavisUniversity of California at Davis Aggies 2484848484848484848484848
University of California at DavisUniversity of California at Davis Aggies 3161616161616161616161616
University of California at IrvineUniversity of California at Irvine Anteaters 1252525252525252525252525
University of California at IrvineUniversity of California at Irvine Anteaters 2262626262626262626262626
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1282828282828282828282828
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2272727272727272727272727
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 3128128128128128128128128128128128128
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 1292929292929292929292929
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 2303030303030303030303030
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 3292292292292292292292292292292292292
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 4295295295295295295295295295295295295
Banana Slug'sBanana Slug's Banana Slug's343434343434343434343434
School / Team SkipperCrew
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Ben Brough '19 Helen Payne '19
Mustang 1 Joseph Lausten '18 Belle Lemoine '19
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Liam Hood '20 Nathan Dryer '20
Mustang 2 Alyson Crowley '20 James Kerman '17
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Thomas Niemisto '17 Catherine Kerman '19
Mustang 3 Andrew Lozovoy '17 Nick Bonafede '17
California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Julian Martinez-Prado '19 Ronan Lundegaard '19
Keelhaulers Kian Patrick '20 Kyle Hunt '19
California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Andrew Clements '17 Kinsey Cohen '17
Dolphins Charles Winter '17 Kenneth Migliardi '18
California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach Alex Demmler '19 Kaela Riha '19
49ers 1 Julia Jaynes '19 Shyon Seyed-Emami '18
San Diego State University San Diego State University Christian Reed '17 [1-6]
Thomas Rall '18 [7-12]		 Jack Doheny '17 [1-6]
Christian Reed '17 [7-12]
Aztecs Gillian Dean '19 Emilia Cloutman '20
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley David Hopkins '19 Melissa Jaffe '20
Bears 1 Matthieu Laurent '17 Avery Burke '20
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Ian Markowitz '17 Katey Hayes '20
Bears 2 Cole Fargo '18 Gina Canzona '19
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Jayden Potter '21 Jackie Shaff '19
Aggies 1 Joseph Naro '18 Sierra Madden '19
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis James Letchinger '20 Brianna Pinto '20
Aggies 2 Picasso Vasquez '20 Jenna Rutledge '19
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Joshua Leung '18 Grace Moore '18
Aggies 3 Burak Kocal '18 Bradyn O'Connor '19
University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Drake Baldwin '20 [1-12] James Bohne '20 [1-6]
Christian Parizea '18 [7-12]
Anteaters 1 Emily Guy '18 [1-12] Lucas Erb '20 [1-6]
Madeline Bachus '19 [7-12]
University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Jesse Campbell '19 [1-12] Christian Parizea '18 [1-6]
Stacey Agustin '18 [7-12]
Anteaters 2 Victor Ya '18 Brian Newcomer '19
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Nicholas Lenz Lenz '19 [1-12] Mingyi Chen '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Georgia Potter '18 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
Bruins 1 Leah Ford '19 [1-12] Kylie Sullivan '17 [1-6]
Grace Phillips '18 [7-12]
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Laura Roudebush '18 Maddy Kuhn '20
Bruins 2 Abraham Dearden '20 Zoe Hessler '18
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Ankit Rastogi '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Thomas Garcia '19 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]		 Kristopher Wong '18 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Bruins 3 Hallie Muller '20 Arjun Boddu '18
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Erika Barth '16 Laura Furtado '18
Tritons 1 Samuel Rohrbach '17 Christopher Steefel '18
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Yan Rui Goheen '17 Meagan Montalto '20
Tritons 2 Natalie Hopper '19 Robyn Gillum '18
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Brett Farrell '17 [1-12] Alexander Bittner '19 [1-2, 7-8]
Nathan Tessier '19 [3-6, 9-12]
Tritons 3 Fisher Price '20 [1-12] Ellen Carlander '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Jerod Flores '19 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Grant Lin '17 Giulianna Miseo '20
Tritons 4 Jason Barr '17 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Chase Verstuyft '17 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]		 Murtaza Jafrani '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
University of Southern California University of Southern California Peter Wong '18 Lorea Mendiguren '20
Trojans 1 Paul Chyz '18 [1-12] Clifford Lester '19 [1-6]
Hope Modugno '18 [7-12]
University of Southern California University of Southern California Upamanyu Dutta '20 Sabrina Moreno '19
Trojans 2 Will Paulsen '19 Mackenzie Freeman '18

Conditions — 02/18/2017 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 83%  ·  Pressure 1001.0 hPa

Temperature

55°F
↑ 58°F   ↓ 51°F
Feels like 53°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.5 kn
avg  ·  max 6.4 kn
Gusts to 14.8 kn
From S (172°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover79% Sunshine4.0 hrs Humidity83% Pressure1001.0 hPa Rain0.08 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 8 kn* · W 8 kn (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at UC Irvine: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.04 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.01
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.16 ± 0.06)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at UC Irvine by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 4 labelled days at UC Irvine, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →